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The case for and against the Cardinals as the NL Central favorites in 2024
Out of everybody in the NL Central, the Cardinals have been the most active, having added three starting pitchers to their rotation. But is it enough to make them favorites to win the NL Central?
The Cardinals were quick to fill the holes in their rotation and even added an ace in Sonny Gray. The other additions were Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson.
We've heard over the past several years about how the NL Central is a weak division and how it should be easy to win. For the most part, that has been the case. The Cardinals won the division in 2022 by seven games over the Brewers. Last year, it was Milwaukee who won the division by nine games over the Cubs.
Out of every team in the Central, the Cardinals have done the most this offseason. By no means are they World Series contenders unless they add another top-level starter or some high-leverage bullpen arms, but they have put themselves in a much better position to succeed in 2024 than they did in 2023. Their quiet offseason last year was the root cause of their 71-91 record, which sent them to last place for the first time since 1990.
But with the Brewers having subtracted a few pieces and looking more likely to trade Corbin Burnes, it's safe to say that the NL Central is once again up for grabs. The Reds and Cubs have been quiet in addition.
In that case, it's fair to ask the question of whether the Cardinals are the favorites to win the NL Central. Have they done enough to be considered the best team in the division, or do they need to do more?
We'll discuss that in this piece and make a case for why the Cardinals should be the favorites, and a case for why they shouldn't.
Why the Cardinals should be NL Central favorites
We discussed it in the first slide, but the Cardinals were very quick to upgrade their rotation. No, it doesn't make them World Series contenders, but they got three viable starters to fill the holes.
Finally, they have an ace. Sonny Gray is a guy you can trust to start Game 1 of a playoff series. The Brewers have Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta. But if Burnes is traded the Brewers should slip a bit in the Central. That could pave the way for the Cardinals to take advantage of one of the weakest divisions in the league.
As of right now, it's hard to say who the clear favorite is. But since the Cardinals have done the most, I think an argument could be made that they are the best team in the division at the present moment.
What could give the Cardinals a significant edge is the health of their position players. Lars Nootbaar went on the IL three times last year. Nolan Gorman went on the IL twice, while Brendan Donovan missed the final two months recovering from Tommy John surgery and Nolan Arenado missed the final week with a back issue.
But if everybody remains healthy, the Cardinals' offense could prove to be a strength and guide them to another NL Central title. Gorman, Donovan, and Nootbaar are only going to get better, and the same can be said about Jordan Walker. If everything goes to plan on the offensive side and the rotation gives them the innings they need, the Cardinals have a path to the top of the division.
Why the Cardinals should not be favorites
While the Cardinals do at least have a good foundation in place, they're once again banking on a lot to go right if they want to win even the division.
While it's true that the Brewers will likely take a step back, the Cardinals still have work to do in order to be considered a playoff-caliber team. The Cubs and Reds took steps forward and shouldn't be overlooked, though I wouldn't necessarily consider them favorites either.
I've said it before, but the Cardinals need more pitching. I don't think they're adding another starter. The most glaring need as of now is in the bullpen. Even with the addition of Andrew Kittredge, Ryan Helsley and Giovanny Gallegos struggled to stay healthy, and the latter had an uncharacteristically bad season.
Also, most people aren't looking at this roster and thinking that it's a force to be reckoned with, and I say most because John Mozeliak believes he has a World Series contender in place, which couldn't be further from the truth.
To expand on the idea of them banking on a lot to go right, there are plenty of guys who couldn't stay healthy. There's no guarantee that they're going to come back and be star players. There's also a chance for somebody to regress significantly.
While the starting rotation looks a lot better, it's not an elite rotation. Gray could start Game 1 of a postseason series, but the Cardinals don't really have a guy who could start Game 2.
One ace isn't enough for fans to buy back into the Cardinals.
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