An in-depth look at the St. Louis Cardinals and the 2023 MLB rule changes

Larger bases and less pick offs

In an apparent effort to limit injuries, first, second, and third base will all be larger in 2023, going from 15 inches square to 18 inches square.  The larger bases were used last year in the minors, and according to MLB.com reduced injury events at or near bases by more than 13%.

Everyone can agree that reducing injuries is good for the game, but there is another potential effect of larger bases than may impact the game.  Again per MLB.com, the larger bases mean that the distance between home plate and the first base has been reduced by three inches.  The distances from first to second base and from second to the third base have each been decreased by 4.5 inches. 

Again, as a fan of “small ball,” I expect this will lead to more stolen bases, especially considering the new rules limiting the number of pick-off attempts and step-offs available to pitchers per batter.  Under the new rules, a pitcher is only allowed two pick-off attempts or two steps off the rubber per batter.  According to MLB.com, stolen base attempts were up 26% last year in the minors after these rules were implemented.

The reduced distance between bases may also lead to more bunts and hit-and-runs, and more aggressive base running, which are all good for the game.  Frankly, I am tired of hitters always swinging for the fences and striking out over 30% of the time.  What Cardinal fan who is old enough to remember the 1982 team, as I am, did not love watching that team manufacture runs on its way to beating the Brewers in the World Series?

As for the 2023 Cardinals, they do have some team speed and I expect them to benefit from this rule change.  Tyler O’Neill’s sprint speed, per Baseball Savant, is the 97th percentile in baseball.  If he can stay on the field, he may swipe twenty bags or more.  Tommy Edman stole 32 bases last year and could steal as many as 40 or more this year.

No one can predict how many additional bases the Cardinals will steal in 2023, or when or if those steals or more aggressive baserunning will decide close games.  I can tell you that the Cardinals, and baseball as a whole, should be more enjoyable to watch.

Pitch timer

I must be perfectly honest about this one.  I may be old, but, one of the best things about baseball was always the fact that it did not have a clock. 

The perfect symmetry of three outs per side per inning over nine innings was one of the most charming parts of the game.  Therefore, I am not really a fan of the new pitch clock, although I find it slightly less repugnant than the so-called “ghost runner” rule.

Under the new rules, each pitch must be thrown within 15 seconds after the clock starts if the bases are empty, and within 20 seconds with runners on base.  Violations by a pitcher result in a ball.  Hitters are allowed one timeout per plate appearance and must be set in the batter’s box when eight seconds are left on the pitch clock.  Violations of this rule result in a strike called against the hitter. 

This can be a significant penalty, especially in a close game.  Per Ben Clemens at FanGraphs hitters produce a wOBA of .363 after a 1-0 count but only .270 after a 0-1 count. Of course, a batter’s violation after two strikes would result in a strikeout, and a pitcher’s violation with three balls would result in a walk, although I suspect such instances will be rare.

I certainly understand and appreciate the reason for these changes.  Per MLB.com, the pitch clock helped to reduce the length of the average minor league game by 25 minutes.   The league hopes that speeding up the pace of play will keep fans engaged, especially younger fans.  I will also admit that it can be frustrating to watch a batter endlessly adjust his gloves or a pitcher parade around the mound for what can seem like an eternity between pitches.

Other than speeding up games, the ultimate impact of these new rules is hard to estimate.  I would expect that most pitchers and hitters will adjust to the pitch clock reasonably quickly and that the number of violations will decrease significantly as the new year progresses.  On the other hand, some notoriously slow workers, like the Cardinals’ own Giovanny Gallegos, may struggle for some time.

I am concerned that come the heat and pressure of the playoffs, a game or even a series may be decided by a pitcher’s or hitter’s clock violation.  I certainly hope that the Cardinals do not come out on the losing end if that happens.

Conclusion

It will be interesting to see how these new rules affect the game, and the Cardinals specifically, in 2023. Overall, I believe the better teams in the league, like the Cardinals, will benefit more from the new rules than poorer teams.  However, like most things in baseball, I expect the benefits will mostly even themselves out over a 162-game schedule.