8 steps the Cardinals should take to retool for 2025 if they fail again this year

If you follow my St. Louis Cardinals coverage, you'll know I am optimistic about this team's ability to compete for a playoff spot in 2024, even with the offense's early season struggles.

Even so, what happens if things do go south again for St. Louis, much like it did in 2023?

Well, I've been thinking about that a lot this past week.

On Friday, I joined Brenden Schaeffer (who covers the Cardinals for KMOV and has excellent daily coverage of the Cardinals on YouTube and audio platforms) to chat more about this hypothetical scenario. We both agree it's far too early to say this is where the Cardinals where end up, but if they do, we had a ton of thoughts about what a "retool" could look like. You can watch/listen to our conversation below.

We honestly could have gone on for hours about this potential "retool", and yes, we called it a retool. Even if the Cardinals have a second straight losing season, there's plenty of young talent on this club to just take a step back in the near future, and quickly reload the roster to begin pushing toward playoff contention as soon as 2025, but especially in 2026 and beyond.

I highly recommend subscribing to Schaeffer's podcast if you're interested in daily Cardinals coverage from someone who's at the ballpark frequently and has really fun and dynamic content. While we covered plenty of this in our conversation, I wanted to lay out my own thoughts on a potential Cardinals retool, and what the "8-step process" I think the Cardinals will need to undergo in order to make this retool successful.

Trade Paul Goldschmidt

This is the first and most obvious move if the Cardinals fall out of contention this season. Paul Goldschmidt was acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks via trade prior to the 2019 season and has been a fixture in the middle of their order ever since. While the club has had minimal postseason success in Goldschmidt's tenure, he did with the National League Most Valuable Player Award in 2022 and may be on his way toward becoming a Hall of Famer.

Goldschmidt hasn't been himself so far in 2024, posting a .582 OPS and just two home runs prior to Saturday's contest. While he'll need to get things back on track to have significant trade value, it's hard to imagine a scenario where July comes around and a contender is not interested in adding Goldschmidt for the stretch run.

If Goldschmidt ends up being the best bat available on the market, he could bring back the Cardinals a really nice prospect or solid package in return, but I do think that St. Louis would try to do "right by Goldschmidt" by sending him somewhere he would like to go.

While Goldschmidt will be missed, if the Cardinals are taking a step back, it doesn't make a ton of sense for Goldschmidt or the Cardinals to have him on the roster. I'll dive into what the Cardinals' offense could look like in 2025 should they retool, and I think you may be surprised how fun that lineup still looks.

Trade players on expiring contracts to reload the farm system

In 2023, the Cardinals traded away Jordan Montgomery, Jordan Hicks, Jack Flaherty, Chris Stratton, Paul DeJong, and Genesis Cabrera, most of whom were in the final year of their contracts.

In return for all of those guys? The Cardinals got two top 100 prospects in all of baseball in Thomas Saggese and Tekoah Roby, the best starter in all of Triple-A so far this season in Sem Robberse, reliever John King, and other prospects like Matt Svanson, Adam Kloffenstein, Sammy Hernandez, Zack Showalter, Drew Rom, and Cesar Prieto.

Goldschmidt, if his bat gets back to where we know it can be, could yield the Cardinals a return similar to what Montgomery brought back for them. But the Cardinals also have other names on expiring deals who could fetch them some interesting prospects.

Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson,, Giovanny Gallegos, and Keynan Middleton are all on one-year deals with very affordable team options for 2025. The Cardinals could hold onto any of those guys to fill out their roster next year, but they would likely want to capitalize on their trade value.

Lynn has been really good so far, posting a 2.81 ERA in his five starts. If he's able to maintain an ERA south of 3.80 by the deadline, he'll be someone that contenders would love to add to their rotation. Gibson's 4.35 ERA isn't flashy, but he would also get the Cardinals something in return as teams are always in need of starting pitching. Gallegos and Middleton carry more value than Chris Stratton and Genesis Cabrera did, so those two will always bring back value from a playoff team.

Andrew Kittredge, Brandon Crawford, and Matt Carpenter's contracts expire following the 2024 season, and while the latter two will not be coveted by other teams, Kittredge has been a shutdown reliever this year and would bring back a really nice piece for St. Louis.

Just with all of these names who are on one-year deals, the Cardinals will be able to add a lot of talent to their farm system, and perhaps even more than they did in 2023.

The next three slides though are where this conversation goes much further than it did in 2023. The Cardinals were clear about their intentions of punting on 2023 but getting right back into contention in 2024. If things go south this year, there'll be a lot more changes on the table, meaning there are some more names who the club could move for significant value.

Explore a Sonny Gray trade, but only deal him if the return is overwhelming

Sonny Gray is a true front-line starter, and I'd argue a clear ace in today's game. Match him up against any starter in baseball, and he can go toe to toe against them and put his team in position to with the game. But at age 34, the Cardinals would at least need to consider the idea of auctioning him off to the highest bidder for an absolute haul.

I may write something exploring just how much the Cardinals could get in return for Gray if they traded him, but it's safe to say it would be a lot. For the Cardinals, Gray would bring them back the kind of prospects that could change the outlook of their club in future seasons. If they are really retooling, they likely won't see themselves as contenders for 2025, so does it really make sense to hold onto their ace during some down years?

Gray's salary rises from $10 million to $25 million in 2025 and then $35 million in 2026, with a mutual option in 2027 that includes a $5 million buyout. Gray will be 36 entering the 2026 season making $35 million. While Gray could still be an elite starter then, he also may have declined, and the Cardinals would not have the elite version of him they do right now.

There are a number of reasons it could make sense to keep Gray though. First, the Cardinals wouldn't be blowing things up and going into a full-scale rebuild, so even if they wouldn't be an elite team in 2024, Gray would surely help them compete with their young core in 2025 and beyond.

Second, and maybe even more important, Gray can be the leader of a young pitching staff that is trying to find their way in this league. In early 2025, you could see names like Gordon Graceffo, Sem Robberse, Andre Pallante, Zack Thompson, Michael McGreevy, and Adam Kloffenstein. Later in the year, some of their top arms like Tink Hence, Tekoah Roby, Cooper Hjerpe, or Quinn Mathews could reach St. Louis as well. Gray could lead the rotation both in performance and in a mentoring nature.

So, as I stated at the top, the Cardinals would be foolish not to field offers on Gray if they decide to retool, but they have no reason to move him unless they get a haul in return. If some contender does not blow them away in July, or unless Gray asks out of St. Louis, they should hold onto him to help usher in a new era of Cardinals pitching.

Determine which players under contract beyond 2024 are a part of your future, explore trades for the rest

Outside of Sonny Gray here are two other names that St. Louis could consider shopping on the market and would hold quite a bit of value due to their talent and team control.

The first is closer Ryan Helsley, who's posted a 1.93 ERA with 8 saves already this year. Helsley dealt with an injury in 2023 that sidelined him for most of the year but looks like he's back to his elite self that we saw in 2022. Closers as good as Helsley don't grow on trees and can bring back a massive haul.

One thing I'd consider before dealing Helsley if I'm St. Louis is converting him to a starting pitcher, much like the Giants have done with former Cardinals' reliever, Jordan Hicks. Helsley was a starting pitcher as he was coming up in the Cardinals' system and did so with a lot of success. While of course he's a dominant closer now, there's no doubt he'd be even more valuable if he translated that stuff into a starter's role.

Now, it would require significant investment from the Cardinals and Helsley to attempt something like this, and they'd have to make some changes to his arsenal and pitching style like the Giants did with Hicks. In the worst-case scenario, they ramp him up as a starter in the offseason, it does not work, and he goes back to being a top-end reliever. In the best-case scenario, Helsley is able to become a front-line starter for the Cardinals. It sounds exactly like the kind of thing they should experiment with when retooling.

If they don't go that route, they could extend Helsley long-term and keep him as their closer, but it would probably make more sense to trade him for a haul of prospects instead.

Two more names that the Cardinals could look to shop are center fielders Tommy Edman and Dylan Carlson. Edman is a free agent after the 2025 season and Carlson is a free agent after 2026, but with Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, and Victor Scott II being their long-term outfield options, it would make sense to shop either guy if there is a club interested in upgrading their outfield.

Edman specifically could net them a good return, as he's proven to be a top-end defender at a variety of positions while providing league-average offense.

Still, there's one more name that the Cardinals would look to move if they retool, but this trade would get a lot more complicated, which is why I want to address it individually on the next slide.

Facilitate a Nolan Arenado trade at the deadline or in the offseason

Brenden Schaeffer and I talked at length about a potential Nolan Arenado trade on the podcast, and while I played a bit of "devil's advocate" to see if there's a scenario where Arenado could stay with the Cardinals in this retool, but we both agreed that both the Cardinals and Arenado would likely see this as the best path forward.

First off, Arenado is not going to want to waste more years of his career on a team that is not making a significant playoff push. Arenado came over from Colorado looking to win, and although they've made the playoffs a few times since he's come to St. Louis, he's going to want to finish his career on a team that is in the World Series hunt.

It would seem likely that if the Cardinals were to trade Arenado, all roads would like to the Los Angeles Dodgers, the only other team we know that Arenado has had an interest in playing for in his career. Arenado is from California, and the Dodgers have been interested in acquiring him for a long time, so it's easy to see how a deal would get done.

Second, if the Cardinals are retooling, they'll want to create as many opportunities as possible for their young talent in St. Louis, and freeing up the third base position for someone like Nolan Gorman to take over could do that. Top 100 prospect Thomas Saggese will be with the club by season's end and in need of a position, and they are already struggling to get at-bats for young guys on the roster. There may even be some prospects they get back in other trades who they'll want to feature in their lineup.

Third, ownership would probably want to slash payroll as much as possible if the club is not winning games, and cutting the three-years, $74 million remaining on Arenado's deal after 2024 would be a great way to do that.

The biggest question for me is not whether or not Arenado would be traded, but rather, when would Arenado be traded? There may be a clean deal for the Cardinals to make with the Dodgers or another contender that Arenado approves at the trade deadline, but the front office may want to wait until the offseason to make such a deal.

Why's that? Well, it may be a tough sell for the future of this Cardinals organization for John Mozeliak to pull the trigger on a move of that magnitude. Sure, maybe ownership would want Mozeliak to "wear" the fans' frustration and pull the bandaid off, but the Cardinals also may prefer to bring in new leadership first and allow them to facilitate that deal.

Speaking of new leadership, let's talk about maybe the most important move the Cardinals will need to make in this retool, and that's John Mozeliak's successor.

Accelerate the John Mozeliak succession plan

Since John Mozeliak signed his extension with the club in February 2023, it's been widely known that this contract, which runs through the 2025 season, would likely be Mozeliak's last in charge of baseball operations for St. Louis.

While the Cardinals could run the first year of their retool with Mozeliak in charge and delegating responsibility throughout the year, I think it's likely that his succession plan would be accelerated for the benefit of everyone involved.

Ownership is not going to fire Mozeliak or push him out the door, but I do think Mozeliak would see the writing on the wall and either retire from President of Baseball Operations or take a backseat in the final year of his deal in a different role, allowing someone else to take charge.

While it's not fair to say this would for sure happen, Chaim Bloom has to be the clear and obvious candidate. Bloom, who has spent significant time with the Tampa Bay Rays and most recently just oversaw baseball operations for the Boston Red Sox, was hired as an advisor to John Mozeliak this offseason, and is someone that many view as next in line in St. Louis.

I asked Mozeliak about Bloom's impact on their offseason moves this past offseason, and he confirmed that he bounced various things off him, which was obvious given how many arms they acquired had ties to Bloom. Jeff Jones asked Mozeliak more about his own future and how Bloom plays into it, and while he was clear that it's not the plan as of today, Bloom "strengthens their bench of options".

When Bill DeWitt Jr. was asked about the decision to bring in Bloom, he mentioned that it's something that both Mozeliak and he individually wanted to do, and when you think of the kind of guy DeWitt may want to see in charge when Mozeliak is done, Bloom checks all of the boxes.

1. Bloom has already shown an ability to build winning clubs on reduced payrolls.

2. Bloom has been at the forefront of player development among baseball minds, something the Cardinals stress is important for building a consistent contender in their market.

3. Although things did not end well in Boston, they did make an ALCS in his tenure, and the Mookie Betts trade that he gets blamed for frequently was a decision that ownership was going to make Bloom make.

Should Bloom not want the job or the Cardinals somehow don't see him as a fit, they could promote a name like Randy Flores or Michael Girsch. Both names have legitimate cases for the job, but the more I think about it, the more it seems like the Cardinals would want someone with at least a bit of outside experience and perspective to take over for Mozeliak in order to give this front-office a fresh set of eyes.

If Bloom is not hired, it could be Flores or Girsch, but with how big of a job St. Louis is, I'm sure the Cardinals would look at names with other organizations as well.

Reassess 2025 and beyond with your current young core and new young assets

Well, that was a lot! Let's take a moment to look at how this club could stack up.

First, we can't account for any of the prospects they acquire in trades, but I'm confident there would be a few who could play a major role on the club in the near future. I'll focus solely on the players we know they will have.

Second, the Cardinals payroll this season according to FanGraphs is $181 million. The exact number is not important here as those are debated often, but they would have about $98 million coming off their books if they move on from impending free agents Goldschmidt, Lynn, Gibson, Middleton, Gallegos, and Crawford along with Arenado's contract, meaning they'd have about $83 million on their books entering the offseason. They could use that room to go out and sign more free agents, or they could use that space to give some extensions to young talent like teams around baseball have been doing lately.

So, with all that being said, here's what their lineup and rotation could look like in 2025:

Lineup

1. 1B Brendan Donovan
2. RF Jordan Walker
3. LF Lars Nootbaar
4. C Willson Contreras
5. 3B Nolan Gorman
6. DH Ivan Herrera
7. SS Masyn Winn
8. 2B Thomas Saggese
9. CF Victor Scott II

Other options include: OF Dylan Carlson, UTL Tommy Edman, OF/1B Alec Burleson, C Pedro Pages

Rotation

1. RHP Sonny Gray
2. RHP Miles Mikolas
3. RHP Andre Pallante
4. RHP Sem Robberse
5. RHP Gordon Graceffo

Other options include: LHP Steven Matz, LHP Zack Thompson, RHP Michael McGreevy, RHP Adam Kloffenstein

Probably not ready for Opening Day but could be options in 2025: RHP Tink Hence, RHP Tekoah Roby, LHP Quinn Mathews, LHP Cooper Hjerpe

Obviously, there are some names on here that could be moved for even more prospects, but my main takeaway here is that this team could be really interesting in 2025. The position player group specifically is exciting, young, and ready to compete as soon as next year, while the pitching is much more of a work in progress but has a variety of young arms who could contribute.

Should the Cardinals need to retool for 2025 and beyond come July, it won't be fun to tear things down, and it'll create another frustrating second-half experience, but I think by the time Spring Training rolls around next year, fans would be really excited to see this young team in action.

Again, I do not think this is where the Cardinals are heading. I do believe they'll be able to be competitive and push for the playoffs this year. But if things go haywire, this is a very viable route for them.

What did you think of my plan for the Cardinals retool if it happened? Go check out the podcast Brenden Schaeffer and I recorded on Friday and let us know in the comments what you think!