8 Cardinals who are outperforming projections this year

JoJo Romero, Andrew Kittredge, and Ryan Helsley

Perhaps the strongest positional group on the team has been the relievers. Matthew Liberatore, when coming in late in games, has been a breath of fresh air, Ryan Fernandez has pitched quite well as a bridge reliever, and the back of the bullpen has been supreme.

I recently wrote about how the Cardinals' bullpen has been among the best in the league. Their three guys at the back end, JoJo Romero, Andrew Kittredge, and Ryan Helsley, have been among the best in the league. The Cardinals are tied for 3rd in total saves with 14 of them. The relief group has the 6th-best K rate, 7th-best FIP, 7th-best WHIP, and 7th-best fWAR total in all of baseball.

Each of these players has outpaced his projections at the beginning of the year. JoJo Romero (1.33 ERA), Ryan Helsley (1.42 ERA), and Andrew Kittredge (2.70 ERA) are all playing well above their projections. Helsley and Romero have each struck out nearly 30% of the batters they've faced. Romero and Kittredge have 14 and 12 holds, respectively, the 2nd and 3rd most in all of baseball.

The 3 relievers at the back of the bullpen for the St. Louis Cardinals have been key to the team's victories up to this point. In fact, before Monday night's game, Ryan Helsley had pitched in every one of the team's victories. Without the strong performances of JoJo Romero, Andrew Kittredge, and Ryan Helsley, the Cardinals would be much worse off. These three are all performing well above expectations.

Kyle Gibson

Perhaps the most unsung hero of the starting staff, Kyle Gibson has done exactly what the Cardinals needed him to do. He's gotten quality start after quality start this year, and he's given the team a fighting chance in most of his outings. Gibson has 5 quality starts on the year through 8 total starts.

Gibson's 3.67 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 1.20 WHIP, and 111 ERA+ are all much better than preseason expectations. He has excelled this year at getting groundballs (48.9% rate), and he has limited hard contact this year. Players are barreling the ball against him (11.5% rate), but he's been able to keep those hard hits on the ground.

Gibson has been about league average according to K rate (19.9%), but his walk rate is more escalated than most pitchers in the league at 10%.

ZiPS projected Gibson to have a 4.51 ERA in just under 150 innings. His K rate is slightly better than projections, but his walk rate is also a bit worse than projections. Gibson's projected FIP (4.51) is within the margins of error with his actual FIP (4.44). Where Gibson is doing much better this year than projections originally had him is in BABIP. ZiPS projected a .300 BABIP for him, but reality has been much kinder. He has a .248 BABIP.

When John Mozeliak signed Kyle Gibson, hopes were low for the veteran righty. He has been a stabilizing force in the rotation up to this point. He has pitched at least 6 innings in all but one start -- his most recent outing. Also, he has allowed 4 runs or fewer in all but one start this year. In the start where he allowed 7 runs, Gibby still pitched 6 innings, thus saving the bullpen.

Masyn Winn

Shortstop Masyn Winn was given the keys to the starting position this spring for the St. Louis Cardinals. He has taken them and run to start the season.

We knew Winn's defense would be superb. What's been pleasantly surprising has been his offense. No one expected Masyn Winn to show up and hit tens of home runs or have exit velocities at the top of the league. What he's done thus far has been getting on base, stealing bags, and putting pressure on the defense. He just so happens to be doing that at an above-average rate.

Winn's 104 OPS+ places him above league average offensively, particularly amongst shortstops. He has a .280/.341/.364 slash line. While one would hope for more power from the righty, the batting average is right where we need it to be. According to fWAR, Winn currently sits at 11th among all rookies. His defense actually grades out negatively on FanGraphs, though fWAR values defensive positioning heavily. Winn has not needed to stretch to his right very often because he has a Gold Glove collector in Nolan Arenado there.

Winn's projections expected much less out of the rookie. He had a projected slash line of .243/.301/.374 for an OPS+ of 88. While his slugging is close, Winn has been able to hit for average at a rate similar to what he did in 2023 at Memphis. Winn has 7 stolen bases a quarter of the way through the season, and he was projected for just 16. At this rate, Winn will almost double his stolen base projections.

Masyn Winn has outperformed his preseason projections across the board. While some metrics aren't very high on his defense, he certainly passes the eye test.

Sonny Gray

It felt like all offseason the Cardinals were destined to sign Sonny Gray. His personality, demeanor, price, and dedication to the game all screamed "St. Louis Cardinal". A deal was struck between the two parties, and St. Louis found its ace.

For the first time in 5 years, the Cardinals had a true competitor and top-of-the-rotation arm to lead the starting pitchers. Gray started out the season on the Injured List, but he's been about as good as advertised since his return to the rotation. Gray has logged 41.1 innings in just 7 starts. While his last two outings haven't been his best, Gray's season numbers have surpassed even the most optimistic of fans' expectations.

He has a 3.05 ERA, 1.065 WHIP, a 2.79 FIP, and a 166 ERA+. Where Gray has been uncharacteristically good is with his strikeouts. He is averaging over 11 strikeouts per nine innings, and his K rate sits at 31.9%, 5th among starters who have thrown at least 30 innings (don't look at who is 4th...it's a former Cardinal starter). Gray has been a bit homer-prone in his last two starts, but he has been excellent at limiting strikeouts.

Preseason projections pinned Sonny Gray as an above-average starting pitcher but not to this level. ZiPS gave him a 3.56 ERA, a 4.04 FIP, and an ERA+ of 118. He was pegged to strike out almost 8 batters per nine innings, but he has done significantly better than that this year.

If Gray can get back on track, Cardinal fans will be able to see someone special, potentially even a Cy Young candidate, lead their rotation and get them back into the playoff push.

Willson Contreras

Yes, Willson Contreras is injured and will be hurt for the next 8 weeks. However, he has been the single best offensive player on the team, and he has even been among the best hitters in baseball just one month into the season.

If Contreras were a qualified hitter, he would rank 8th in all of baseball in wRC+ at 171 just behind Juan Soto and tied with his brother, William. Contreras has a .280/.398/.551 slash line, and he was crushing baseballs before his injury. He became a bit of a "three true outcomes player, as he had a 27% K rate and a 14% BB rate to go along with 6 home runs.

Contreras's work defensively is part of what led to his injury, but he was showing marked improvements in his framing, receiving, and game-calling. He ranks in the 75th percentile in blocking, the 92nd percentile in caught stealing rate, and the 65th percentile in framing. While his pop time is among the lowest in baseball, his strong arm makes up for his slower release.

ZiPS projected Contreras to slash .241/.339/.427 for an OPS+ of 112. Contreras's .271 ISO and .364 BABIP are well above his projections of just .186 and .288, respectively. Contrera's offensive and defensive numbers across the board are far and away better than his projections. He was one of the few bright spots on the roster to start the season.

His absence will hurt the team's offense, and that alone is proof that Contreras was playing well above expectations.