7 players who will be crucial to the Cardinals' success in 2024

Nolan Arenado

Nolan Arenado has been one of the best players in baseball for the last eight years. He plays superb defense at the hot corner, he is able to hit for power, and he has been capable of leading a team during his career. He has a whole cabinet full of Gold Gloves, Silver Sluggers, and Platinum Gloves. He's been to eight different All-Star Games. Arenado has done it all except win a World Series.

The ever-elusive championship trophy has escaped his grasp since his first season in 2013. He has sought the highest honor in Major League Baseball for many years now, and joining the St. Louis Cardinals in the 2020-2021 offseason seemed to be the next logical step towards a World Series trophy.

That prestige has yet to happen for the thirty-three-year-old third baseman; when speaking with Katie Woo of The Athletic (subscription required), Arenado made it clear that it's his desire to contend in 2024.

We have to take a huge step. I don’t think it’s OK to have another bad year. When you think of the Cardinals, you think of extended greatness and constantly winning.

Nolan Arenado must return to his superstar form to help lead the Cardinals to success in 2024. Arenado's offensive and defensive numbers dipped last year; offensively, he posted his lowest OPS+ (excluding 2020) since his rookie year in 2013. Per Outs Above Average, Arenado posted his lowest total for his career, only five OAA, and that includes the COVID-shortened 2020 season where he only played in forty-eight games.

Arenado is the linchpin around which the rest of the team operates. His personal success will lead to team success. Where he goes, so do the rest of the players. If Arenado returns to his superstar form offensively and defensively, that alone will help the Cardinals make great strides next year.

Brendan Donovan and Tommy Edman

Tommy Edman's recent contract extension gives both him and the Cardinals assurance and certainty. Edman can now prepare for the season without the shadow of negotiations hanging over him. He knows his position, he knows his salary; now, he can focus on balling out.

Brendan Donovan has assumed a leadership role this offseason, per reports. The on-base machine and utility player has become a voice in the clubhouse that other players will listen to. Last year, Donovan made an adjustment in his plate approach that led him to swing at more first pitches, and that led to leaps in offensive performances for him.

However, neither Edman nor Donovan are on this list for their leadership, their offensive abilities, or their stability. Rather, these two are vital players for the 2024 team due to their positional flexibility. With Alec Burleson, Ivan Herrera, Dylan Carlson, and Matt Carpenter as the presumptive bench players for next year, that leaves the team without a true backup shortstop. The backup shortstop is instead hidden (overtly) in the starting lineup.

Should Masyn Winn struggle or get injured, Tommy Edman will shift to shortstop, and while it isn't preferred, Brendan Donovan could even play some innings at the premium defensive position. Donovan won the first National League Utility Gold Glove Award in 2022, evidence of his ability to handily play six positions on the field.

Without a true utility bench player, Brendan Donovan and Tommy Edman are key to the team's success next year. Their versatility is vital, and Edman's speed paired with Donovan's offensive capabilities make for a great pairing.

Sonny Gray

The St. Louis Cardinals have been searching for an ace since 2019. Jack Flaherty appeared to be just what the doctor ordered, but he failed to reach the heights he attained in the second half of 2019. When John Mozeliak signed Gray, last year's runner-up in the American League Cy Young race, to a three-year, $75 million deal, the team found its ace for the near future.

Sonny Gray was one of the five best pitchers last year according to bWAR (5.3), ERA (2.79), adjusted ERA+ (154), home runs per nine innings (0.391), and FIP (2.83). He led the league in FIP and home runs allowed, incidentally. Those are some of the most important statistics for a starting pitcher, and he was tops in the league for each of them. Sonny Gray truly is a top-tier pitcher in all of baseball when looking at last year's statistics, contrary to many fans' beliefs.

While his career numbers aren't quite as sterling as his 2023 figures, they are still admirable. In the last three full seasons, Sonny Gray ranks 23rd in ERA, 19th in FIP, 8th in home runs allowed per nine innings, and 18th in fWAR. Those are numbers that justify him being most teams' #1 pitcher on their staff.

For the Cardinals to be successful next year, they need Sonny Gray to perform as well as he has these past three seasons. The team hasn't had an ace in a long time, and Sonny Gray should be able to live up to the hype.

Ryan Helsley

Ryan Helsley has been one of the best relievers in baseball since he arrived in 2019. His transition to the team's closing role in 2022 pushed him to new heights. His high-90s 4-seamer is one of the best in the league, and he has been able to work his plus slider off the heater well in his career. He was voted to his first and only All-Star Game in 2022.

In 2022, Helsley was literally the best pitcher at striking batters out. His 39.3% K rate that year was in the top 1% of the league. Helsley finished 2022 with a minuscule 1.25 ERA, 2.34 FIP, 0.742 WHIP, and a 4.70 K/BB rate in 64.2 innings across fifty-four appearances. Helsley also racked up nineteen saves. He blew four saves, but he held seven other games in check.

Last year, Ryan Helsley injured his forearm in late June, limiting him to only 36.2 innings pitched. His 2.45 ERA was inflated compared to his 2022 ERA, but regression was to be expected. A 2.45 ERA for your closer is still quite strong. Helsley remained near the top of the league in strikeout rate (35.6%), but he experienced some control issues, as his walk rate increased to 11.6%.

Ryan Helsley's health and return to peak form is imperative for a Cardinals' bullpen that lacks some depth. Assurance and dependability out of the back end of a bullpen are two of the determinative factors of a successful team. If Ryan Helsley is healthy and dealing next year, the team should see improvements.

Jordan Walker

Perhaps one of the most important players on next year's roster is Jordan Walker. For how unfair as it may be, there is a lot of pressure on the towering sophomore outfielder. Jordan Walker was a top-three prospect in all of baseball prior to his debut last year, and his bat lived up to the hype. While his debut may have been a bit premature, he handled the situation with class.

Jordan Walker's calling card is his offensive game. Among qualified rookies last year, Walker ranked 16th in wRC+, 12th in home runs, 13th in xwOBA, and 14th in total offensive output according to FanGraphs. ZiPS projections for next year project him to be second on the team in wRC+, but his 80th percentile projection has him as a better offensive player than other players such as Luis Robert Jr., Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Kyle Schwarber, and Adolis Garcia.

For as good as Jordan Walker is as a batter, he is equally below average defensively. His struggles in the outfield aren't for a lack of effort, however; the young outfielder has sought help from some of the best to have ever played in the grass. Walker just wasn't able to make huge strides in his first year. Learning a new position at the highest level of baseball probably isn't ideal for a rookie, but he handled it admirably. Walker's -21.7 defensive rating on FanGraphs was far and away the worst for all qualified rookies.

There are two ways in which Jordan Walker is one of the most important players for next year's team. First, he must continue to improve offensively. This isn't much of a concern, as he has always had a highly-ranked bat tool. Second, Walker has to become serviceable in the outfield. He doesn't need to magically become a positive defender in right field, but he should at least be less awful in the grass. It's likely that someone with his speed and arm strength can improve with time, but his defensive growth is essential to a team that is looking to get back to its old ways on that side of the ball.

Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras was handed one of the largest free agent contracts in franchise history last year when he signed a five-year, $87.5 million deal. His goal of replacing Yadier Molina was virtually unattainable, but he gave it his best effort.

Contreras has never been known as a stalwart defensively. He is excellent at throwing runners out, and his blocking skills are above average, but he has consistently received negative reviews on his game-calling and framing abilities, two skills that are essential for catchers, particularly catchers on a roster that has been blessed with Yadier Molina behind the plate for nearly two decades. Yadi's inclusion on the coaching staff should benefit Contreras as well.

Contreras's offensive game was the best on the team last year. His 124 OPS+ was the best on the team last year. Contreras's ability to stay level-headed even after being blind-sided by his removal from behind the plate is quite telling. The veteran's ability to maintain offensive production after being told he isn't good enough to be a catcher by his own teammates is impressive.

Should Willson Contreras become more familiar with the starting staff next year while maintaining his offensive output, the Cardinals will have themselves a good catcher who can hit in the middle of the lineup, something they haven't had since Yadi's peak years nearly a decade ago. Contreras's jovial personality is also key for a clubhouse that needs some levity.