Analyzing the 2023 St. Louis Cardinals defensive woes

Outs Above Average

Below is a chart detailing the Outs Above Average (OAA) for each position for the Cardinals from 2021-2023. OAA, as defined by MLB.com, is a "range-based metric of skill that shows how many outs a player has saved." OAA takes into account Catch Probability, Expected Catch Percentage, Actual Catch Percentage, and Catch Percentage Added for outfielders.

For infielders, key factors such as distance traveled, the time it takes to get to the ball, distance from the base the runner is heading to, and speed of the runner are all taken into account. All things considered, OAA is a much more accurate and all-encompassing stat than Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Keep in mind, the 2023 season is only through August 9th. Therefore, some slight changes could occur between now and the end of the season.

Major positional changes over the years include a transition from Yadier Molina to Andrew Knizner, to Willson Contreras at catcher, Dylan Carlson to Lars Nootbaar, to Jordan Walker in right field, Harrison Bader to Carlson/Nootbaar/Tommy Edman in center, Nolan Gorman has taken over second base from Tommy Edman in 2021 and part of 2022, and a combination of Paul DeJong, Edman, and Brendan Donovan at shortstop.

Aside from catcher, second base, center, and right, the same players have been playing the same positions. The team's shift usage was lower than the league average in 2021 and 2022. Despite these constants, the team's OAA totals have plummeted these past 2 years. Why is that?

Part of the explanation could be players in unusual positions. Tommy Edman is not a typical center fielder. Carlson was brought up as a corner outfielder with the potential to play center, and Jordan Walker is a natural third baseman who is learning the outfield on the fly. Nolan Gorman has done a great job learning the second base position, but he still has room to grow.

Poor Performers

Catcher, right field, and left field are the three worst-ranked positions defensively. Let's take a look at innings leaders for those positions. In left field, Alec Burleson (-6 OAA) has played the most innings on the team. Jordan Walker has the most innings in right field (-11 OAA), and Willson Contreras leads all players at catcher. These three players have contributed heavily to the team's total OAA. Ironically, Brendan Donovan has been worth -1 OAA at second and -4 at first (thus the negative value at first; Goldschmidt has accumulated 3 OAA so far).

At second base, Nolan Gorman went from -11 OAA in 2022 to -2 OAA in 2023. He has shown improvement by leaps and bounds; however, Tommy Edman led the team in innings at second base in 2021. Edman accumulated 13 OAA at second in 2021. While Gorman has been serviceable, he is a significant drop from Edman.

Perhaps the most perplexing drop in OAA is at third base. Once a perennial platinum-Glove winner, Nolan Arenado's defense has been lackluster this year. While we still have ample flashy plays, he seems to be missing the little things that we as Cardinal fans used to take for granted. He has remained consistent coming on a ball, but he has seen a 6-point drop when moving toward the 3B bag.

Finding Answers

Part of the problem has been a change in personnel. 4 of the 9 positions have seen changes in the past three years. Additionally, mistakes defensively could be attributed to positioning in the field. Investigating the locations of players on the Cardinals could give us an answer to where they are falling short.

Baseball Savant provides a detailed image of player positioning each year. Looking at the graphs and images, one thing stands out to me: player depth. In 2023, infielders are playing much further than before. The shift does require all four infielders to be on the dirt; however, when comparing the Cardinals' positioning to teams such as the San Diego Padres (28 OAA) and Milwaukee Brewers (25 OAA) there are some major differences.

When looking at key differences between the Cardinals and the Padres, the Cardinals appear to have a bigger hole on the left side of the infield between shortstop and third base. While the Padres' third basemen typically shade back and up the line or in near the grass towards second base, the Cardinals plant their third basemen straight up, primarily off the line and about midway on the dirt. Their straight-up third basemen OAA is a net zero, while their toward SS/3B hole is a positive 4. Perhaps the team could benefit by sliding Arenado slightly to his left more often. As discussed above, Arenado could also benefit by moving closer to the line in certain situations. This would help his lateral movement towards third base. Rather than playing straight up, Arenado could move in either direction at the start of the at-bat based on batter tendencies.

Another stark difference in positioning between the Cardinals and Padres would be second base. The Padres play their second basemen closer to first base or straight up whereas the Cardinals place their second basemen directly behind the bag for a majority of at-bats. The Cardinals have a -2 OAA up the middle, but they have a positive 2 OAA when shaded toward the 1B/2B hole. Sliding Nolan Gorman over to his left (closer to first) more often may benefit the defense, especially since Tommy Edman is back at shortstop most often now and can cover a fair amount of ground.

Both the Padres and Brewers place their center fielders either directly left or directly right of center. The Cardinals, however, appear to work on a continuum of positions for their center fielders across a straight line. In 2022, the Cardinals' center fielders did not play in the gaps in the outfield. Rather, they shaded slightly left or slightly right, depending on the batter. This year, however, they are playing in the gaps much more often. When shading either direction, the center fielders have a positive 6 OAA. Contrarily, they are only a positive 1 when playing in the gaps. In 2022, center fielders netted +12 OAA when only shading either direction.

Conclusion

With slight adjustments in positioning, paired with patience (see Gorman and Walker), the Cardinals should see improvements in their defensive metrics. While it is unlikely they vault into the top-15 for Outs Above Average this year, the Cardinals could see great improvements next year defensively. Hopefully, this will help the team perform better in 2024.