2. Try to trade Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz, decline options on Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson
Talk about addition by subtraction, the Cardinals' rotation would take a step forward tomorrow if they finally called it quits on the Miles Mikolas experience.
This offseason, the Cardinals should be on the phones looking for any takes for Miles Mikolas. There is no way they are able to move his entire contract, but any money they can save on his deal by sending him elsewhere and eating a large portion of it would be beneficial to both sides. Mikolas is just bad, plain and simple. Maybe he gets back on track somewhere else, but the Cardinals do not need his 5.55 ERA in their rotation next year.
It's worth noting that the Cardinals have salary-dumped guys before, with two recent examples being Mike Leake and Dexter Fowler. Mikolas only having one year remaining on his deal should allow for some kind of suitor this offseason, even if it means eating 80% of the contract or attaching a lower-end prospect to the deal. Frankly, if they can't find a match, it would just be best for both sides to release Mikolas. He is not someone who can slide into a bullpen role, and I see no reason for him to be a rotation option for St. Louis next year.
Steven Matz, on the other hand, I don't think they have to trade or release, but they should explore it just as thoroughly as they should with Mikolas. Matz at least has the potential to be a bullpen piece for them next year if needed, so I don't really see the point in releasing him. If they can offload his entire salary for 2025 ($12.5 million) or a significant portion of it, go for it. But if not, might as well stick him in the bullpen and see what happens.
Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson both have $12 million player options for 2025 with $1 million buyouts. This means the Cardinals can save $22 million just by simply declining their club options and paying the $1 million buyouts. While Lynn and Gibson both aren't bad values at $12 million, the Cardinals have too many young arms that could probably give them similar or better production, so why not give them a shot?
Let's say the Cardinals decline both of those options, save half of Matz's contract in a trade, and eat 70% of Mikolas' contract in another deal, the Cardinals would be saving roughly $34 million in salary next year by letting go of those four arms. That's a lot of dollars and not much production being lost.
The Cardinals already have Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, and Andre Pallante lined up for the rotation next year. While they’d still have two rotation spots to fill, they could allow young arms like Quinn Mathews, Michael McGreevy, Matthew Liberatore, Gordon Graceffo, Adam Kloffenstein, and Sem Robberse to fight for those spots as well. I even have a dark horse rotation candidate I’m going to propose in my next creative move.
Again, I’m not saying Lynn or Gibson have been bad this year. They’ve actually done their jobs. Lynn sneakily has a sub-4.00 ERA this year while Gibson is sitting at a 4.20 ERA but has been eating innings. The problem is that the Cardinals already have two back-of-the-rotation-type arms in Fedde and Pallante, and with all those other young arms as well, they don’t need to pay $12m or $24m to keep one of both of them around.
What the Cardinals should do, even if they are cutting back payroll a bit, is target a second front-line starter to pair with Sonny Gray. That could come through free agency or a trade, but that, along with the removal of Mikolas, could raise this rotation’s floor and ceiling significantly.
Then, those six arms are fighting for the fifth starter spot and then to be the next man up when an injury occurs. I feel pretty darn good about that as a plan for the Cardinals, and they should be moving in that direction too.