6 trade targets for the Cardinals after the recent free-agent frenzy

Dylan Cease

Let's start this list off with a name that has been assocaited with the Cardinals pusuit of starting pitching upgrades for awhile now, White Sox starter Dylan Cease.

By now, most of us already know the pros and cons of Cease. He's already produced Cy Young-level production in 2022 with a 2.20 ERA and 227 strikeouts in 184 innings but saw regression in terms of output in 2023 with a 4.58 ERA in 177 innings of work. I understand why people would have concerns about acquiring him for a haul coming off a down season, but if you look at how his stuff graded out in 2023, he still looks like one of the best starters in baseball.

In 2022, Cease ranked 4th in all of baseball with a 124 Stuff+, which looks purely at the physical characteristics of a pitch to basically tell you how "nasty" their stuff is. Despite a down year in 2023, Cease graded out with a 115 Stuff+, 5th in all of baseball. What's also interesting to me is that Cease also remained consistent in his ranking with Location+ and Pitching+, so there's no underlying data suggesting that he won't return to his elite form.

If Cease rebounds, the Cardinals get a guy who consistently makes 32 starts, goes deep into ballgames, and strikeouts guys at an elite clip. He would continue to help the Cardinals with their innings problem and do so with the high-quality stuff that the rotation still needs.

The price to acquire Cease will be high, and I'm interested to see if it would require one of Nolan Gorman or Brendan Donovan, or if the Cardinals could get away with a package that is more prospect-heavy instead. With the White Sox in rebuild mode, future talent will be a priority, and I'm sure the Cardinals would prefer to hold onto their two-second baseman if possible.

Framber Valdez

Over the last few months, we have discussed a variety of names that the Cardinals could target via trade or free agency, but one new name who's "entered the chat" is Astros' lefty Framber Valdez, at least according to The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal (subscription required).

In Rosenthal's piece, he talked about how the Astros' owner Jim Crane does not want to pay luxury tax penalties, and the Astros are currently set to be slightly above that threshold, even without making any upgrades they'd like to do this offseason. Two executives from rival teams told Rosenthal that they are monitoring the Valdez situation, as the Astros could kill two birds with one stone by moving his projected $12.1 million salary and adding really good talent in return as well.

If you're not familiar with Valdez, he's been one of the best starters in baseball over the last three years and has proven to be productive on the biggest stages. Since 2021, Valdez is 40-23 with a 3.13 ERA over 534 innings of work. He's been an All-Star and finished top-10 in Cy Young voting the last two seasons, and still has two years of control as well.

If the Astros were to move Valdez, I have a hard time believing they do so without getting Gorman or Donovan in return to help their team immediately. They do have one of the worst-ranked farm systems in baseball now, so if they were to shop Valdez, adding talent for both now and the future would be a priority for them to sustain success.

Outside of Gorman and Donovan, other pieces on the Cardinals roster that the Astros could be interested in may include Alec Burleson, Tommy Edman, Zack Thompson, Dylan Carlson, or Mathew Liberatore, but I wouldn't see any of those guys cutting it as the centerpiece of a potential deal here.

Adding Valdez to the top of the Cardinals rotation with give them an experienced 1-2 punch for October that can help them go toe to toe with other top rotations. Keep an eye on the Astros' situation, as if they decide to shop Valdez, the Cardinals would be an excellent trade partner for Houston.

Jesus Luzardo

Per another report from Ken Rosenthal recently (subscription required) the Miami Marlins were open to moving their stud lefty Jesus Luzardo in a deal with the Kansas City Royals for 1B/DH Vinnie Pasquantino, but the Royals instead opted to just spend the money and sign Michael Wacha instead.

For multiple years now, the Cardinals and Marlins have checked in with each other regarding the Marlins' starting pitching and the Cardinals' young bats, but have yet to pull off a deal, even if the two seem like a match made in heaven. Ever since Sandy Alcantara's injury though, it's felt unlikely that the Marlins would move Luzardo, with names like Braxton Garrett or Edward Cabrera making more sense for them to shop.

Garrett and Cabrera are fine arms with upside, but Luzardo is the guy who's already shown the ability to shut down opposing lineups and do so with some filthy stuff. He's got a high-90s fastball, wipe-out slider, and really good changeup that he mixes well to strike out a ton of batters.

In 18 starts in 2022, Luzardo had a 3.32 ERA and 120 strikeouts in 100.1 innings of work. He kept up the pace in 2023 with a larger workload, posting a 3.58 RA with 209 strikeouts in 178.2 innings of work. His ERA+ for the last two years has been 124 and 125, and his FIP has been right in line with the results he's produced as well. Unlike a lot of the high strikeout guys in today's game, Luzardo does not walk many guys, so if he continues to figure out how to limit base hits, he's going to be even more lethal on the mound.

Luzardo is under club control through 2026, so the price to acquire him will be really high. While the White Sox could take a more prospect-heavy package for Cease, the Marlins, like the Astros, will likely want Gorman or Donovan as the centerpiece of this deal. As much as I'd hate giving one of those guys up, Luzardo is one of the few pitchers in baseball that I think makes a ton of sense to consider.

He'll be just 26 in 2024 and has an extra year of control compared to Cease and Valdez, and honestly, I'd rather have him than Logan Gilbert, who I think would take even more to acquire from the Mariners. Luzardo has everything you'd want in a starter, and the only real concern is that he hasn't shown that elite stuff for more than a year and a half yet.

Luzardo was a top prospect in baseball coming up though, but was disappointing in his first larger tastes of big-league action, so the Athletics sold low on him to bring in Starling Marte at the 2021 trade deadline.

The presence of Skip Schumaker in Miami could help facilitate a deal as well, as he knows most of these Cardinal hitters and would likely be more comfortable with a Gorman or Donovan than other bats he has not worked with in the past. A deal for Luzardo would be pricey, but it could be an excellent move for St. Louis if the two sides come to an agreement.

Shane Bieber

Let me start off by saying, I don't think Shane Bieber is a top starter anymore and he does not fit the profile of the kind of starter I think they need to acquire to take a big step forward. With that being said, Bieber would still be a good addition to the Cardinals rotation, assuming the price point is low, and would at least help them look more like a high-80s win team in 2024.

One of my worries with a Bieber deal is I think the Guardians would want teams to pay like he's still a big name, but in reality, he's regressed from that. He could regain that form in the next few years, and it sounds like he's trying to get his velocity back, but it's not worth paying for that chance if the Guardians want that price to reflect that potential.

If the Guardians recognize that he has diminished a bit as a pitcher and had a 3.80 ERA in just 21 starts last year due to injury, then the Cardinals could have a real conversation here.

The most I'd be willing to consider if I'm the Cardinals in a Bieber deal is someone like Alec Burleson or Dylan Carlson, but anything more than that and I'm totally out. I also don't think I go for Bieber if it takes me out of the market for other names on this list, but I don't hate it if the price point is low and the other options just aren't there.

Right now, Bieber probably projects to be more like a good number-three starter than a front-line guy, but the potential is there to be more than that. Two years ago, when his stuff was already diminishing some, Bieber finished 7th in Cy Young voting, so he's at least shown the ability to be very effective, even without incredible stuff.

The main reason I included him on this list is it feels like something the Cardinals may consider, even if I'm not a big fan of it. It's true that it would upgrade their rotation, but it feels like a small step in the right direction, rather than the big step they have an opportunity to take.

Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo

Similar to Shane Bieber, I don't think Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo of the Mariners raise the Cardinals' ceiling for 2024 as things stand, but they are both high-upside arms who would at least be rotation upgrades and could emerge as legit dudes this year or in future seasons.

I still have my doubts that Miller or Woo will be moved by the Mariners, and I really don't think they trade Logan Gilbert, but if the Mariners want to upgrade their lineup and the Cardinals like Miller or Woo, the trade could be there.

I could see a world where Donovan straight up for Miller or Woo works out. Both pitchers would not be free agents until after the 2029 season, giving the Cardinals a ton of team control with both arms. Woo made 18 starts in 2023, posting a 4.21 ERA with 93 strikeouts in 87.2 innings. He is a primary fastball guy with a four-seamer that sits in the upper 90s, a sinker in the mid-90s, and a cutter in the high 80s, with a slider that he mixes in as well.

Bryce Miller had a similar level of success in 2023, posting a 4.32 ERA with 119 strikeouts in 131.1 innings pitched. Miller has a mid-90s fastball and sinker as well but relies on a slider, sweeper, and change-up as well. Neither of these guys should be expected to be front-end starters in 2024, but their cost is high because of the cost control and the potential they have long term.

Personally, I wouldn't make this deal as I am more concerned with the 2024 rotatoin than I am having a ton of control on a pitcher. Yes, multiple years of control would be nice, but the upgrade they really need is another guy they can rely on at the top of that rotation right now. If it did not cost Donovan or Gorman for one of those two though, I'd be way more interested.

Young pitching from the Giants

One team that I have not often seen connected to the Cardinals when it comes to the trade front but could make for interesting partners is the San Francisco Giants. While I'm not sure I see a move happening in the near future, I really do think they'd be a team to keep an eye on closer to Spring Training or at the trade deadline based on some tidbits from Ken Rosenthal.

In a recent piece over at The Athletic (subscription required), Rosenthal mentioned the Giants as a team that could be looking to move starting pitching for position players, and the type of player they are looking for could match up well with St. Louis.

"The addition of a veteran starter, either through free agency or trade, would perhaps make it more likely that the Giants would deal from their young pitching group, an idea they already are entertaining...The team, however, needs to add young, athletic-position players who can defend. Dangling young arms might be the best way to get it done."

Young, athletic-position players...my mind immediately runs to the likes of Tommy Edman and Brendan Donovan here, or even Dylan Carlson depending on how things shake out. While the Cardinals could use some upside in their pitching staff, I'm not sure a move with the Giants makes sense at this very moment, but they may make a lot more sense as trade partners closer to the trade deadline.

In the case of Donovan, I don't see the Cardinals wanting to move him for pitching unless it was a bit more of a proven front-end starter, and the kinds of pitchers the Giants may be offering here have upside but do not have much if any, big league experience. I do think St. Louis would be more interested in moving Edman or Carlson for that kind of pitching, but as things stand, both play critical roles on this roster as the Cardinals look to see what their young guys can provide.

Edman is the starting center fielder as things currently stand, and even if Victor Scott II is able to claim that job in the near future, he's also their only real insurance at shortstop right now if Masyn Winn struggles. But if the season progresses and the Cardinals feel confident in Winn at shortstop and the combination of Scott, Carlson, Nootbaar, and Palacios for center field, then I do think Edman could become available for a deal with the Giants. I talked about the idea of Edman becoming available midseason with Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat on our charity stream for the Noot News Podcast this week. (2:55:30 mark)

The same idea can be said about Carlson, but probably to a lesser extent. If the Cardinals really liked some of those Giants arms and San Francisco wanted Carlson, I don't think they'd shy away from a deal. But right now, the Cardinals view Carlson as that fourth outfielder who can play all three spots but specifically provides them with insurance if Edman gets hurt or has to fill in at shortstop.

Four arms to keep an eye on from the Giants for me are Keaton Winn, Carson Whisenhunt, Mason Black, and Hayden Birdsong. Winn made his MLB debut and has both a plus fastball that sits between 94-96 mph with the ability to hit 100 mph, and a nasty splitter that he uses to get both swings and misses as well as induce ground balls.

Whisenhunt is a top-100 prospect in baseball and likely wouldn't be moved unless it was in a trade for Donovan or perhaps Edman, and he features a plus-plus change-up with an above-average fastball and curveball combo, He's a few years away from the Majors, as is Hayden Birdsong. Mason Black could make his MLB debut in 2024 and is in the growing mold of having a plus fastball and plus slider combo.