4 tiers of bullpen upgrades the Cardinals could make this offseason

Tier 4

Tier 4 are guys who will likely come on cheap contracts and are looking to bounce back from a down year or work their way back from a major injury. These contracts would be low-risk with a potentially high reward, and the expectations for any of these players when they are signed are minimal. The Cardinals would hope they could become a meaningful part of the bullpen, but the other tiers are where they find more "sure things".

Trevor Rosenthal

Most Cardinals fans remember Trevor Rosenthal from his dominant stretch with the Cardinals from 2012-2017, where he posted a 2.99 ERA and 121 saves in 325 innings of work. He’s always been a major swing-and-miss guy, boasting a career 12.1 SO/9, and has carried that into his most recent seasons as well.

Rosenthal has not pitched in a Major League game since 2020 and is currently working his way back from elbow surgery after he had an injury setback while attempting a comeback with the Tigers in 2023. Rosenthal is expected to be ready for game action in the summer of 2024, so he could provide the Cardinals with a midseason reinforcement. Rosenthal is not likely to command a significant contract, so it’s a low-risk, potentially high-reward move for St. Louis.

I caught up with Rosenthal alongside site contributors Andrew Wang and Sandy McMillian on the Noot News Podcast recently, and it sounds like he is open to a reunion with the Cardinals if they come calling.

John Brebbia (last strain for 2 1/2 months then poor finish)

Another former Cardinal, Brebbia was a solid piece of the St. Louis bullpen from 2017-2019, posting a 3.14 ERA in 124.2 innings for the club. He has pitched for the Giants the last few years, and after a career year in 2022, he had his struggles in 2023.

He missed about two and a half months of the season with a lat strain, and upon his return, just was not himself on the mound. Brebbia has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in all but one of his six big league seasons, so he would add a dependable piece to their bullpen if he can bounce back.

Matt Barnes

Matt Barnes is no stronger to high-leverage innings, serving as a closer for the Boston Red Sox at various points in his career before being shipped to Miami for the 2023 season.

Barnes really struggled in 2023 as was far from the All-Star form he had back in 2021. He posted a 5.48 ERA in just 21.1 innings of work for Miami, and his season ended with major hip surgery. Barnes should be ready to pitch come Spring Training, but that hip injury will likely prevent him from getting a guaranteed contract with a big league club. He could be worth an invite or minor league deal if the Cardinals want his veteran presence in the bullpen in 2024, and if things go well, he could work himself into a significant late-inning role.

Liam Hendricks

After making an incredible return to baseball after dealing with stage four non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, Liam Hendricks had to undergo Tommy John surgery and will be sidelined for most if not all of 2024.

While Hendricks could pitch again in September, the Cardinals could look to sign him to a two-year down, with the 2024 salary being lower than 2025, allowing Hendricks to rehab with them for the year and then come back for a rebound season in 2025.

Tier 3

Tier 3 is where the Cardinals can find solid arms at a low cost. The goal of bringing in one of these arms is to stabilize the middle innings with dependable arms that can consistently get the job done. These arms could carve out bigger roles or fill in when injuries occur, but when they are signed, the expectation is not to be one of their best bullpen arms out of the gate.

Woo-suk Go

The Cardinals have been linked to Korean closer Woo-suk Go for a few weeks now, and at age 25, has been one of the best closers in the KBO in recent years.

Go has a mid to upper-90s fastball with a cutter, slider, and curveball mix to play off of that pitch. He's been a strikeout guy in Korea, something the Cardinals want to add more of to their bullpen.

Go was not as impressive in 2023 as he has been in past years, but he was dealing with some injuries. It's too big of a leap to call him a high-leverage arm today, but he very well could rise to be one by midseason.

Shelby Miller

Surprise, surprise, another former Cardinal. Shelby Miller just had an excellent season with the Los Angeles Dodgers and should find his way into another contender's bullpen this offseason.

Miller posted a 1.71 ERA with 42 strikeouts in 42 innings for Los Angeles, and although I don't think he'll keep his ERA that low next year, I see a guy who they could confidently slot into the middle of the bullpen and find spots for late in games as well.

Ryne Stanek

Pitching in the Astros' bullpen the last three seasons, Ryne Stanek has a triple-digit fastball that he loves to throw alongside his slider and change-up combo.

Stanek would bring playoff experience to the Cardinals' bullpen, and has the talent to be a major piece of the bullpen if he rebounds from his 4.09 ERA in 2023. Stanek pitches with an intensity that could really help this Cardinals' bullpen take a step forward as a whole in 2024.

Adam Ottavino

A former first round pick of the Cardinals, Ottavino has had a long and successful career for the Rockies, Yankees, Red Sox, and Mets, and has the chance to go back to where it all began for him this offseason.

Ottavino just turned 38 but has been really good for the Mets the last two years, posting a 2.62 ERA with 141 SO in 127.1 innings. His age gives me pause on banking on him as a high-leverage arm, but even if he's just the same dude he was last year or the year prior, he could pitch in big spots for St. Louis next year.

Tier 2

The arms that fall into tier 2 are going to cost the Cardinals more on the open market, but are more of "sure things" when it comes to talent and expected production. These guys should slot into the late game mix with no problem.

Jordan Hicks

The Cardinals remain interested in a reunion with their former fireballer, and Hicks could really help strengthen their bullpen mix if they could sign him.

Up until this point, almost every name on this list would get a one-year deal south of $10 million. For Hicks, he could get three or more years with an AAV north of $10 million. He's ready to cash in.

Hick's stuff is insanely good, and he finally put it all together over the summer for St. Louis and continued his run with Toronto after the trade deadline. He would be an excellent addition if the Cardinals can make a deal happen.

Phil Maton

Phil Maton has been heavily linked to the Cardinals this offseason, and would provide them with a rising bullpen arm who is just 30 years old. After being mostly average for much of his career, he posted a 3.00 ERA in 66 innings while striking out 10.1 batters per nine innings in 2023.

Doing this for the Astros the last three years shows he has what it takes to pitch in big games, and is someone the Cardinals could very well add to their mix in the coming days and weeks.

Yuki Matsui

The left-handed closer from Japan, Yuki Matsui has been linked to the Cardinals at various times and would represent an excellent left-handed option for the back of their bullpen alongside JoJo Romero, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, and John King.

Matsui is the quickest player in Japanese history to reach 300 career saves, and his stuff will translate to the big leagues. He'll likely require a multi-year agreement to get a deal done, which is risky (as it is with all relievers), but is a risk that fels reasonable to take.

I am a bit skeptical about Matsui's fit lately, as I think the Cardinals have a lot of left-handed options right now, and outside of Helsley and Gallegos, they lack clarity from the right-side out of their bullpen.

Hector Neris

We've already had two Astros on this list, how about a third?

Hector Neris had a career year in 2023, posting a 1.71 ERA in 68.1 innings of work while striking out 10.1 batters per nine as well. He's been very dependable throughout his career, posting a 3.24 ERA in ten big league seasons.

Neris will turn 35 during the season, so age is a real concern, but it's not something that should derail a pursuit on a one-year deal.

Tier 1

Tier 1 guys are truly top-of-the-market talents, guys who are among the very best in today's game. These guys would cost a ton of money in free agency or a massive trade package to bring to St. Louis.

Emmanuel Clase

The Cleveland Guardians are reportedly listening to trade offers on their elite closer, and with so many years of team control remaining, they are not going to trade Emmanuel Clase without a ransom.

In four big league seasons and across 238.1 innings of work, Clase has a 2.00 ERA, consistently shutting down opposing lineups and either finishing the game for the Guardians or keeping them in the game. He's led all of baseball in both games finished and saves the last two seasons, making him one of the most dependable relievers in baseball both performance and health-wise.

If the Cardinals wanted Clase, it would take a major piece to get it done, and I just do not see St. Louis paying that kind of price right now. If the Cardinals were to add him though, Clase and Helsley would be the best bullpen duo in baseball and help shorten games for St. Louis in a big way.

Josh Hader

Speaking of a guy who would be an excellent reliever for the Cardinals, Josh Hader is now a free agent and available for any team to sign.

Cardinals fans know Hader all too well from his days with the Brewers, shutting down opposing teams with ease and posting an insane 15.0 SO/9 over his career.

When Hader was traded to the Padres in 2022, that whole season went south for him, as he finished the year with a 5.22 ERA after posting a 1.23 ERA the year prior. Well in 2023, he was back to himself, posting a 1.28 ERA and finishing 52 games for the Padres.

Hader will turn 30 in a few months and is going to command a historic contract for a relief pitcher. Not only are the Cardinals 100% not going to make that move, but I would also be very against it for them as well. Giving a relief pitcher a $100 million contract or $20 million or more annually is an absurd number and something the Cardinals can avoid altogether. I would guess this contract ends up aging very poorly, so the Cardinals are wise to stay out of his market.