Analyzing the Cardinals 3 potential paths: aggressive, passive, or stuck in between

Remain aggressive

I understand that the Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson signings were far from splashy. The Tyler O'Neill trade was expected and did not move the needle much. Sonny Gray was an excellent signing, but again, it's far from a major bite at the apple. Still, to this point, they've been one of the most aggressive teams in baseball.

If the Cardinals want to do more than just get themselves out of the mess they found themselves in during 2023, they'll need to continue to press on the gas this offseason to go from a fringe playoff team to a true contender.

The most obvious way they can truly make a statement this offseason is by adding another front-line starter. Pairing Sonny Gray up with another pitcher of his caliber or better would give the Cardinals the formidable 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation that the best teams in baseball have.

The trade market seems to be the clearest way for St. Louis to do that. Dylan Cease is expected to be dealt by the White Sox, and with them facing a long rebuild, creating a package of prospects could get their attention and bring the strikeout machine to the Cardinals.

Speaking of a strikeout machine, Tyler Glasnow has some of the best stuff in baseball and could be had from the Rays for far less than what Cease will require on the trade market due to his $25 million salary and injury history. Yes, there are a lot of risks built-in with Glasnow, but the price would be much easier to shallow and he raises the ceiling of the Cardinals significantly.

Frankly, a run at Yoshinobu Yamamoto would still be the wisest path of all. Yes, his rumored contract number continues to balloon, but he's a 25-year-old ace sitting on the free-agent market, something that rarely ever happens. Yamamoto would give the Cardinals a true number one starter for years and years to come, and only require money to acquire him.

There are so many ways they could continue to look to improve this ballclub and get into true contender status, something I talked about with site contributors Sandy McMillian and Andrew Wang, as well as Locked On Cardinals' J.D. Hefron on the latest episode of the "Noot News Podcast" (29:00 min mark).

Adding another front-end starter and then shoring up the bullpen the best they can with the resources they have left would vault the Cardinals from a mid-80s win team to a club that should win 90+ games and can match up with pretty much anyone in October. It's far from a pipe dream that the Cardinals can pull this off, but will the front office and ownership continue to press the gas with the uncertainty of their TV rights deal?

Stand pat

I've seen this thrown out a lot on social media, and honestly, it feels like an overreaction. Remember when the Cardinals signed Lynn and Gibson and people thought they weren't going to make a significant move? A week later they signed Sonny Gray.

It's not even the middle of December yet and most teams in baseball still have a ton of work to do on their rosters. Sure, the Cardinals could be done with their moves, but they still have plenty of time to further improve the roster.

Let's explore this scenario though, because even though I find it extremely unlikely, it's possible. The Cardinals have added three starting pitchers (Gray, Gibson, and Lynn), two relievers who will likely factor into their bullpen (Ryan Fernandez and Nick Robertson), and helped clear some of their outfield log-jam by trading O'Neill. In theory, they've done everything they hoped to do entering this offseason, so everything else they could do is more of a "want" in their eyes.

Even if they are thinking like that, I still believe that's more likely to lead them toward more aggressive moves, but sure, it could lead them to stand pat as well. They would enter the season with over $20 million in salary flexibility to add significant pieces at the trade deadline based on the needs that arise during the season. They can let their pitching show its true colors in the first half and then decide to add the right pieces to that mix in July. They can see how their outfield pieces play and still have significant bats and prospects they could move for a bigger piece.

It really wouldn't be a shock to see the Cardinals be done with their moves for now and come back to the table later, but if they did so, it would be very disappointing. They've done enough to make themselves a fringe playoff team and still have so much money and assets to improve further, it would feel like a huge missed opportunity if they decide to stay as they are.

Add significant bullpen pieces, pause on other moves

While the Cardinals may end up ending their pursuit of more starting pitching this offseason or could be outbid on both the free agent and trade market, it would still make a lot of sense for them to make significant bullpen additions.

The Cardinals really need another high-leverage arm they can rely on late in games, especially one who is right-handed. Phil Maton, Jordan Hicks, and Hector Neris are three relievers who have been linked to the Cardinals that could fill that role, and none of them would break the bank like Josh Hader would. Hicks will likely require a multi-year deal at or north of $10 million a season, but that's not a bad number to pay in today's game. Maton and Neris have been significant parts of the Astros' bullpen recently and would bring a ton of leadership and experience to the Cardinals' relief core.

Another right-handed pitcher to watch is Korean closer Woo-suk Go, who the Cardinals have reportedly shown interest in and has been a strikeout machine in the KBO in recent years.

Another player coming over from Asia this winter, Japanese closer Yuki Matsui is another name that the Cardinals have shown interest in, and although he's a left-handed reliever, he'd still be an excellent pickup to add to an interesting group of Cardinals' arms.

If the Cardinals wanted to be aggressive with their bullpen additions, they could add one of Hicks, Maton, Neris, or Matsui, and then pursue Go or another lower-end bullpen piece to give themselves plenty of options entering spring training.

While I really want them to add another starting pitcher, it's easy to see how their current staff would take a step forward with just an infusion of talent in the bullpen. The Cardinals already solved their biggest issue from 2023, starters giving them non-competitive outings. Now that they can expect so many more quality starts from their rotation, the bullpen should not be as taxed as it was during the season.

Still, injuries, down seasons, and rest days will complicate the Cardinals' bullpen all season long, so having a variety of guys they can rely on day in and day out would go a long way toward helping this team lock down more wins in 2024. If the Cardinals went down this path, I think we'll be looking at them adding another starting pitcher come the trade deadline then.

What do you think the Cardinals will do with the remainder of this offseason? Do you see them remaining aggressive, standing pat, or somewhere in between? Only time will tell.