6 realistic trade chips the Cardinals may dangle at the trade deadline

Dylan Carlson

The writing appears to be on the wall for a once-prized prospect in the Cardinals' system. Yes, Mozeliak's comment about having to pry Dylan Carlson from his "dead hands" will forever live in infamy at this point.

That comment has not aged well for some time now. While fans love to claim that Carlson was the reason they did not trade for Juan Soto (which has been consistently debunked), their infatuation with Carlson has turned out to be a major mistake and to make matters even worse, it really does feel like the club is a major reason Carlson did not pan out.

I lean toward the perspective that Carlson has had plenty of chances to prove himself as a Cardinal, but it is not hard to see how their rushing of him in 2020 and handling of his playing time since they dealt Harrison Bader have hurt his development big time. The last major mistake they seemed to make was the 2023 Opening Day roster, where they seemingly rushed Jordan Walker into a starting role instead of giving Carlson the opportunity to run with a starting role.

Anyway, enough about the past, the present is why Carlson is about as good as gone when the deadline passes. While his value is at an all-time low, there just is no reason to keep him around once Lars Nootbaar and Tommy Edman return. Michael Siani has blown away the club's expectations up until this point as a primary center fielder, and both Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson need to play consistently in the outfield. While they could option Carlson to Memphis, it just feels like he's destined to be moved.

As I said, that value should be seen as low right now, but not as bad as someone like Paul DeJong last year. Carlson still has another two years of team control, and I'm sure there will be clubs who are interested in seeing if he can turn things around in a new city.

There are four types of deals I think we could see Carlson moved in:

1. Swapped for a reliever
2. Part of a package (not the centerpiece) for a significant starting pitcher
3. Swapped for a back-end of the rotation starter with less control
4. Moved for prospects (not likely to be any that blow you away)

Time will tell which direction the Cardinals go in, but it really does appear like a move is imminent.

Tekoah Roby

One of the key pieces the Cardinals acquired during the 2023 trade deadline, Tekoah Roby has had a rocky year since being acquired by St. Louis, but is still a really interesting pitching prospect that they have to consider moving if they want to make a significant upgrade.

As things currently stand, Tink Hence, Quinn Mathews, and Cooper Hjerpe all seem to be viewed higher by the Cardinals' organization than Roby. Roby is still a valuable prospect though and one I'm sure the Cardinals would prefer to hold onto, but if they want to make a splash with an arm or bat they acquire, they can't hold tightly to every pitching prospect.

I will say I am 100% against the idea of moving Hence, Mathews, or Hjerpe at this deadline. Sure, they are not technically untouchable, but I doubt I would be a fan of any move they could make involving those arms. While I'd love to hold onto Roby as well, I think they have to be open-minded to moving him if a club values him.

Could Roby be part of a deal that snags the Cardinals a number two starter at this deadline? Alone, likely not, but I can see him in that package for sure, and potentially headlining it if the player does not have much team control. Roby was viewed as a top 100 prospect prior to this season by a lot of scouting outlets, but an undisclosed injury has sidelined Roby once again.

Roby still has dynamic stuff and should be an attractive addition to any club's farm system. The Cardinals should not be dying to move him, but if they want to make a swing, it would make sense to make him available with Hence, Mathews, and Hjerpe all being off the table. Beyond even those three names, the Cardinals' starting pitching depth appears to be improving day by day. Andre Pallante has really shown some things this year in St. Louis, while Gordon Graceffo, Adam Kloffenstein, Sem Roberrse, and Ian Bedell all show promise in Memphis.

Below them, names like Zack Showalter, Chen-Wei Lin, and Edwin Nunez provide depth into the future as well, so Roby's presence is not as essential as we might have thought it was when he was acquired.

Tommy Edman

Honestly, the odds that they would move Tommy Edman are the lowest of anyone on this list (at least at the trade deadline), but I still think it's worth thinking about if they want to get creative.

If the Cardinals did want to go out and get a top starter or an impact right-handed bat, Edman could be a piece that the team they are looking to deal with would be interested in, especially if that club is a contender or wants to contend in 2025. Remember the Harrison Bader for Jordan Montgomery trade in 2022? Bader was injured at the time of the deal and was significantly less valuable than Edman, so I could see someone wanting to target him this month.

The Cardinals have always been bullish on how valuable Edman is to them, and his absence has been felt in a major way this year. They may have a hard time convincing themselves that it is worth losing him, but I'll make the case for a scenario where it could be.

Michael Siani and Dylan Carlson are capable of holding down center field for the remainder of this year. The Cardinals already plan on having Siani continue to start against RHP when Edman returns, so Carlson would just play in the 30% or so of games where a left-hander is on the mound. If Nolan Gorman turns things around offensively soon as well, then that natural spot for Edman does not exist.

While Carlson is the player you'd prefer to move, they would get a lot more value from moving Edman. If Edman could get them their next Jordan Montgomery, is it more valuable to make that move and keep Carlson rather than dealing Carlson for whatever they can get and keeping Edman?

Edman is also only under team control for one more season. so his value will only decrease as time goes on. He clearly helps this team now and in 2025, but there could be trades that help upgrade the Cardinals further in a way that keeping Edman around does not make up for. I also still doubt that the Cardinals will need to keep Edman around beyond 2025 either way.

I don't see this as a likely outcome of this deadline, but hey, we all seemed to be surprised by the Bader deal when it happened, and he was similarly displaced by Lars Nootbaar and Dylan Carlson right before that deadline as well. Maybe the performances of Masyn Winn, Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan, and Michael Siani have done the same for Edman's role on the team.

Victor Scott II

I am a huge fan of Victor Scott II and the Cardinals seem to be as well. I do not see them wanting to deal Scott, but I think circumstances right now at least make his availability possible for the right player in return.

They are not going to move Scott for just anything. I would be shocked to see him moved for a reliever or back-end starter, but if the Cardinals shoot for a big arm or bat, I'm sure his name will come up in conversations.

For St. Louis, Scott has the potential to win Gold Gloves in center field while leading all of baseball in stolen bases, but he may be further away from being an everyday Major Leaguer than we thought. His offensive performance was among the worst in baseball this year for St. Louis, and things aren't exactly going great in Memphis either. Scott's talent and work ethic lead me to believe he will figure it out, but if St. Louis does not think that will happen by 2025, do they look to capitalize on his value?

If the Cardinals are holding onto Siani and Edman, they have a pretty darn good platoon in center field for the next season and a half, and Siani will be under team control beyond 2025 as well. He's shown the ability to be the best defensive center fielder in baseball already, and although he's not going to steal anywhere close to as many bases as Scott, he does provide value on the base paths.

St. Louis may see Siani as close enough to the value they'd hope from Scott, and be inclined to move the upside Scott has to acquire an impact starter. Scott could go on to be one of the most exciting players in baseball for another team in a few years, but it is a risk the Cardinals may be willing to take.

One reason I have been bullish on Scott is I think he's probably one of the safer prospects you can have in your system, as even if the bat does not develop, I'd imagine he's at least as good as Siani with the added bonus of his stolen bases at some point, and we've seen how valuable that can be this year. The risk is you give up a guy who could be an on-base machine as well, but even then, he is probably not a superstar that you are letting get away.

I personally would not move Scott, but I think he is worth watching at this deadline.

Jimmy Crooks III or Leonardo Bernal

Woohoo! The organizational catching depth is very real right now. Behind Willson Contreras, Ivan Herrera, and Pedro Pages, you'll see two names that continue to catch eyes at Double-A and High-A in Jimmy Crooks III and Leonardo Bernal.

Bernal is the higher-rated prospect in the system, as at just 20 years old he is flashing the ability to be an above-average hitter at the plate while playing really good defense behind the plate - a true all-around catcher. Bernal is also a switch hitter, which you know, is really fun to have around. Bernal is a ways away from making an impact at the big league level, and with the amount of catching depth St. Louis has, maybe they would be willing to put him in a trade package.

Crooks came into the season viewed less highly than Bernal, but he has done nothing but mash since his first season in 2022 and has really broken out at the plate for Springfield this year. Crooks has posted a .311/.419/.450 slash line with 3 HR and 29 RBI from the right side, good for a 148 wRC+ while walking at a 13% clip and striking out 20.9% of the time. Crooks has recorded 12 doubles and 3 triples in his 180 at-bats this year as well, so he knows how to make an impact at the plate.

All prospects are hard to gauge, but that is especially the case with catchers. They seem to be the most volatile position of all, so I'm not sure how highly either would be viewed in a trade since neither is considered a top prospect in baseball.

Still, if the Cardinals want to hold onto Contreras, Herrera, and Pages, you would think one of Crooks or Bernal would be expendable, especially with the rise of Sammy Hernandez. Hernandez was acquired by the Cardinals for Genesis Cabrera last summer and has been really good for Palm Beach this year. At just 20 years old, he may have the highest ceiling defensively in the system, and his .746 OPS this year shows he is comfortable with the bat at this stage in his development.

If the Cardinals aim low for a starter or need additional pieces in a package, these names make a lot of sense. But in all honesty, I think the depth in the system and emergence of Pedro Pages has made one catcher in particular a very interesting trade candidate this deadline.

Ivan Herrera

Don't misquote me on this - I'm not down on Ivan Herrera at all. Some people seem to think he has to be dealt, but I am not one of those. Even with his struggles with throwing out runners this year, I believe his defense is overall underrated and his bat is far superior compared to Pedro Pages.

And yet, the Cardinals seem to be telling us that they much prefer Pages behind the plate for them, and when Herrera returns from the injured list, his role may be more as a right-handed bat off of the bench than the true back up to Contreras. Herrera is the superior player in my eyes, but I do think it's worth exploring his trade value if he can be the piece that gets them an impact starter.

In general, you want to try and trade from a surpluss rather than a position of weakness when looking to upgrade. Willson Contreras has flipped the script of his defensive woes and looks like a guy who can handle catching duties at a high level for multiple more years. Pages seems to be the kind of catcher who the Cardinals would prefer as their back up - highly skilled defensively and a timely hitter when needed. Pages is multiple steps down from Herrera at the plate, but for what they need from a back up, Pages fits like a glove.

If the Cardinals envision Herrera playing a lot for them over the coming years and they believe his arm will get better, then it would be really difficult to move on from him. His bat has the potential to be one of the best in baseball behind the plate, and as I said earlier, it's really just his arm holding him back defensively. But if a team is willing to move a top arm with Herrera as the center piece, that may be something the Cardinals cannot ignore.

Part of the reason I think Herrera could make sense to move is the other young position players St. Louis has. In 2025 and beyond, you can expect to see Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker in the corner outfield spots for St. Louis with Alec Burleson sliding to first base. Brendan Donovan will slot in as a place holder DH but will play every day all over the field. I don't think Herrera's bat would get into the lineup much unless Contreras is off or DHing, so that signficantly limits his playing time. In theory, it's probably more valuable for St. Louis to have Pages take that playing time and turn Herrera into a different piece.

I'm not the only one seeing this as a possible outcome. Other writers seem to believe Herrera may become available as well based on the Cardinals' optimism around Pages. We'll wait and see, but as of right now, Herrera feels to me like the best chip they are willing to dangle at this deadline.