Ranking the St. Louis Cardinals' 10 most important young players and prospects

#10 - Quinn Mathews

Easily the biggest riser within the organization this year, Quinn Mathews was drafted by the Cardinals in the fourth round of the 2023 MLB Draft but has blown away both the club and national talent evaluators with his breakout performance this year.

Mathews went from the guy people only really knew for throwing 156 pitches in a super regional game for Stanford to a legit top-100 prospect. One of the biggest reasons for his rise this year has been a major uptick in velocity. At Stanford, his fastball mostly sat in the 90-92 MPH range, but he's comfortably sitting between 94-96 MPH just one year later in his first pro-ball experience.

After dominating at Palm Beach to the tune of a 1.47 ERA with 52 SO in 30.2 innings pitched, he received a promotion to High-A Peoria, where opponents are still batting just .151 against him and he's struck out 32 batters in 25 innings of work

You could swap out Mathews on this list with Roby or Hjerpe and I wouldn't have a problem with that, but the point here is the Cardinals desperately need a few starting pitching prospects to pop and impact the MLB roster as soon as humanly possible, and there is just one pitcher in the Cardinals' organization you can rank above Mathews without any hesitation right now.

Mathews looks like a real dude right now. It would be too aggressive to call him a future front-line starter, but with his much-improved fastball and having two other potential plus pitches in his slider and change-up, he could be a very valuable southpaw in the Cardinals' rotation, sooner rather than later. Yes, he is in High-A right now, but after just 10 professional starts thus far, don't be surprised if he continues to be a fast riser in this farm system.

#9 - Victor Scott II

It's hard not to get down on a prospect if their first taste of big-league action goes poorly, but there is very little reason to knock Victor Scott II for his rough stint in St. Louis, other than to say that he is not ready for that level yet offensively.

That is not an inditement on Scott at all. He said it himself recently, he needs to work on some things at the plate, and the MLB level is not the ideal place to do that. Would he love to be back in St. Louis right now? I'm sure of it. But he's making the most of this opportunity to develop, and that is going to help him out a ton in the long run.

Why am I still high on Scott? Even if his bat never gets to a level where he's a league-average hitter or better, his 80-grade speed and plus-plus defense in center field will always be extremely valuable tools. Even while he was producing like one of the worst hitters in baseball in April for St. Louis, the club was having a hard time putting him on the bench due to his game-changing plays in the field and on the basepaths.

Will Scott be a star? It's hard to say. We are far too quick to give that label to young players, myself included. It's not hard to imagine Scott being one of the most exciting and dynamic players in baseball though at some point, and if you take a chance to listen to my interview with Scott while he was stealing headlines during Spring Training, you'll see why myself and so many others are high on Scott's talent - because he has the makeup to make the most of it.

Scott remains one of the most important players in the Cardinals organization for a number of reasons. One, his speed has the ability to change games in a way no one else can. Just look over at the Cincinnati Reds right now and how much Elly De La Cruz is breaking games with his speed. Imagine someone who is even faster and even better at the art of swiping a bag - that is who Scott is. He stole 94 bases in 132 games last year. This dude is legit.

His defense has the potential to be phenomenal, and if he can continue to grow in his ability to read fly balls off the bat and optimize his routes to the ball, he'll have the best range in the game at its most important position. Cardinals fans have seen how impactful elite defense can be with even someone like Michael Siani in center field, so imagine a better version of that defense from a guy who is also leading baseball in stolen bases.

And lastly, Scott's bat has continued to take strides forward. When he was drafted, he was more of an athlete than a baseball player (John Mozeliak's words, not mine), but he's become more and more polished as he's spent time in the system, and as he begins to unlock how he uses his lower-half at the plate, you'll see a guy who hits more line drives than the pop-ups that were plaguing him early in the year, and again, becoming an extremely impactful player.

Another reason for Scott's ranking on this list is just his floor as a player. Even if things do not turn out as the Cardinals would hope, Scott is going to be a productive big leaguer just based on his speed and defense. The bat has the potential to raise his ceiling significantly, and I would bet he figures it out.

#8 - Ivan Herrera

Ivan Herrera has had a lot of pressure on him since his name began to make headlines as a prospect a few years ago. The potential heir to Yadier Molina, his 2022 campaign left some things to be desired for the Cardinals, causing them to go out and sign Willson Contreras. While the Cardinals made an excellent move in bringing in the former Cubs' backstop, Herrera has risen to the occasion since then and is now one of the best backup catchers in baseball and doing an admirable job filling in for Contreras behind the plate.

Herrera has had big moments at the plate this year but has mostly been right around league average at the plate for St. Louis. For someone who is in their first full big league season as a catcher, that is really impressive production, and you'd figure he'll continue to build on that as more of a bat-first catcher. With the struggles of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado this year and the general slump from the Cardinals' lineup, there has been more pressure on Herrera to produce than anyone would have expected. He's done an admirable job navigating that as well as the task of managing the Cardinals' pitching staff.

Herrera has already shown a knack for coming through in big spots offensively, which is a nice trait to see in your young catcher. I think the Cardinals would expect Herrera to be one of the better hitting catchers in the game when he's fully developed, which is a huge asset for the club long-term.

This year has been a mixed bag for Herrera behind the plate. In terms of blocking pitches, he's been one of the best in the game this season, ranking in the 80th percentile in blocks above-average. His framing has been slightly below-league average, but with the improvement we saw in Willson Contreras in just one calendar year, I bet we see strides from Herrera in that area as well.

Herrera's big issue defensively has been his inability to control the running game. Both Oli Marmol and John Mozeliak have said Herrera's arm is in need of major improvement long-term, and if he is unable to improve that clear weakness in his game, it will be difficult to start him consistently behind the plate.

For now, we are loving what we are seeing from the young Cardinal catcher, and the future is bright with the duo of Contreras and Herrera in St. Louis.

#7 - Alec Burleson

Talk about a riser on this list. Alec Burleson could honestly be higher on this list if you wanted him to be and I'd have a hard time arguing against you. If he continues his recent run of form at the plate, he'll definitively jump some really impressive names that are higher on this list.

Burleson has not just been one of the Cardinals' best hitters in 2024, he has been a borderline All-Star so far, believe it or not. He ranks in the top 10 in most offensive categories among National League outfielders. For a big leaguer in his second full season, his bat is truly one that can make a difference in this Cardinals' lineup for a long time, and he's slugging his way into being an important member of their core for both the present and the future.

The Cardinals got a lot of flack from fans last year for giving Burleson opportunities even when the surface-level stats weren't flashy. Yes, he left some things to be desired at the plate, but everything in his profile screamed a breakout was coming, and it has finally happened.

There is plenty of opportunity for Burleson's bat to impact the Cardinals' offense for years to come. Right now, Burleson continues to slug while filling time in for them as their designated hitter and in the corner outfield. Long-term, the Cardinals can have Burleson filling in all of those places, but he also may be making an even stronger case to be the Cardinals' first baseman after Paul Goldschmidt.

Goldschmidt's struggles in 2024 are making it more and more likely that this is his final season in St. Louis. While that was a scary proposition just a few months ago, Burleson looks like the kind of hitter who can fill in admirably long-term, and at least for the next few years, will be pretty cost-effective as well.

That's without even acknowledging the improved defense Burleson has shown in the outfield. Even if the Cardinals were to bring back Goldschmidt or have another answer for the position, Burleson has gone from someone the Cardinals openly did not trust defensively to someone they can rely on. He's not going to be a plus defender, but he's improved enough to let his bat do the talking.

Keep an eye on Burleson, as he may continue to rise up this list if his bat keeps playing the way it has. You know what's even crazier than his new ranking is the fact that three other members from his same draft class somehow rank above him.

#6 - Brendan Donovan

Brendan Donovan wasn't in the Cardinals' 2020 Draft Class, but he's certainly made his mark on the club as that class has. Donovan was a 7th-round pick out of the University of South Alabama, and he's established himself as the next in a long line of Cardinals who have scrapped and clawed their way from being a little-known prospect to a leader of the Birds on the Bat.

When I was at Winter Warm-Up back in January, the club could not stop talking about how impactful Donovan's leadership was on this team. He is the kind of guy who is a driver, pushing guys to get better and to focus on winning. You need talent to succeed at the MLB level, and Donovan has plenty of that, but his leadership chops are something that you can't just replace with an analytically driven model or player acquisition. Those kinds of players do not grow on trees, and the Cardinals need someone like Donovan to lead this club in whatever it ends up looking like in 2025 and beyond.

Donovan has impressed since his debut in 2022 and was catching fire in a major way during the summer of 2023 before landing on the injured list with season-ending elbow surgery in July. The offense plummeted after he was done, and they've needed his production just as much this year as they did last year. It's been a slow start for Donovan, but he's now back up to league-average production and should get back to being that elite lead-off hitter he turned himself into in the near future.

Donovan's slugging percentage is a bit down again this year, but his 112 wRC+ over his last 52 plate appearances have come as the result of him hitting for a .292 average and getting on-base at a .346 clip. Donovan's bread and butter is getting on base with some of the best in baseball, but once he starts tapping into his power again on a more consistent basis, he becomes a well-above-average hitter who sparks the Cardinals' offense each and every game.

Even though he missed that home run against the Rockies, it's clear that Donovan has been swinging the bat a lot better lately, and seems primed for another summer breakthrough at the plate. Donovan's versatility has once again come in clutch for the Cardinals as they navigate injuries. He's manned left field consistently for them with injured list appearances from Lars Nootbaar and the demotion of Jordan Walker, but has also covered time in right field, second base, and third base, and still has the ability to play first base at a high level and shortstop when needed as well.

You'd be hard pressed to find a player like Donovan on other clubs. He checks all of the boxes. He's a really good hitter who is capable of playing almost every position and will make your club better with his leadership. He lands at number six on this list because of the upside of other guys on this club, but don't get it twisted, it would be hard to convince me to let go of Donovan.

#5 - Lars Nootbaar

I don't blame Cardinals fans for getting a little bit annoyed at this point with the Lars Nootbaar hype from myself and others who see the potential in his game, but frankly, it's alive and well, but it just comes with more question marks now because of the constant injuries.

When Nootbaar is healthy and consistently playing, he mashes. Just go back and look at every season he's played since the beginning of the 2022 season. When he's in the lineup for a prolonged stretch, he catches fire and becomes one of the most impactful players on this roster. But the cycle seems to be once he hits that stride, he finds his way onto the injured list, then returns with a bit of a slow start, and once he gets it going again, he's injured once more.

Nootbaar has been worth 1 WAR in just 39 games played and was close to being a 20% above league-average hitter on the season before hitting the injured list once again. Nootbaar's well-above-average defense in the outfield paired with his high on-base skills and raw power make him a dangerous player when he gets going, and we've seen him put it all together so many different times now.

While some are starting to compare Nootbaar to former Cardinals outfielder Tyler O'Neill, I see these situations are two completely different stories, even if Nootbaar ends up being just as injury-prone as O'Neill was here in St. Louis. O'Neill, outside of the 2021 campaign, has not been able to recapture his star form for more than a month in 2024. Nootbaar in every season since he finally got consistent playing time in 2022 has found a way to go on a star-like run each and every time before returning to the injured list. Nootbaar has not struggled with production as a big leaguer, it's merely been a case of staying on the field. The same cannot be said of O'Neill.

But the injuries are a real concern, there is no doubt about that. Sure, he can still be a very valuable player even if he only plays about 120 games a year, but it severely limits his potential, and that is a hard place to be for a club when you never know if one of your key cogs will stay on the field or not.

Nootbaar should not be cast aside by fans, but it's fair to wonder if that part of his game will ever get figured out. The talent is there, his drive is there, and if he remains on the field, he can bump his way up this list. For now, though, there are some other young talents in this organization that have surpassed him, and it has more to do with their star potential than any knocks against Nootbaar.

#4 - Tink Hence

Is Tink Hence the guy that the Cardinals and their fans have been waiting for? Can Hence finally be the answer to the seemingly never-ending search for an internally developed arm? If the results this year are telling us anything, it's that Hence has a bright future in this league.

In 11 Double-A starts this year Hence has posted a 3.19 ERA in 53.2 innings pitched, and his 2.80 FIP and 2.72 xFIP back up that the numbers are real. Not only is Hence producing ground balls at a 44.2% rate thus far, he's striking out 32.4% of the batters he faces as well, showing that he's on the path toward becoming a true front-line starter if this trend continues.

The Cardinals have been incredibly patient with Hence, and it is paying off. He's another member of that 2020 draft class, and while three of his fellow draftees have made their MLB debuts already, he's still in Double-A, but it has more to do with the Cardinals' development plan and desire to build him up than an inditement on his talent.

In fact, Baseball America just refreshed their top 100 prospects, and Hence rebounded from a drop in their rankings to the 22nd-ranked prospect in all of baseball, making him a top-5 pitching prospect in the game right now. Baseball America even thinks he has the potential to rise further and become the best pitching prospect in the game.

Hence has some of the best stuff in all of minor-league baseball. His fastball and changeup combination is elite and his slider has become a true weapon as well. With improving control and a curveball that may grade out as an average pitch, Hence just needs to stay healthy and keep proving he can handle a starter's workload.

If he can, I expect that we'll see Hence crack the MLB roster at some point during the 2025 season. There is no reason to rush Hence and hurt his development, but his play is trending in that direction.

You could argue that the dire need for pitching in St. Louis should place Hence higher on my list, but I placed him here for a few reasons...

1. Hence is still just at the Double-A level, and as we've seen with prospects before there's a big jump from Double-A to The Show. I have no doubt his stuff will translate when that day comes, but we haven't seen it yet outside of flashes in Spring Training action.

2. Pitching prospects are just so hard to bank on. Injuries can derail a career in the blink of an eye. The Cardinals had Alex Reyes, Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha, and Jack Flaherty all look like future front-line starters, and injuries threw each of them off course. It's hard to say Tink is the most important player for their future when we all know you should never put all of your eggs in one basket with pitching.

3. The three names on this list above him are that special, which is a really good sign for Cardinals fans.

It may feel like everything rests on Hence's shoulders when it comes to pitching, but it doesn't. If anything, the Cardinals' pitching prospects are much deeper than their position players right now. While the Cardinals have proven young talent at the MLB level, their minor league system is starting to dry up a bit on the hitters' side of things. If something goes wrong with Hence, they can still look to guys like Mathews, Hjerpe, Roby, Graceffo, Robberse, Lin, and Showalter.

Still, it is hard not to be excited about Hence, so keep watching him closely, as he might be "the guy" that Cardinals fans have not seen come from their farm system in a long time.

#3 - Nolan Gorman

When Nolan Gorman is hot, he is quite literally the best player in all of baseball. This that's aggressive? Look at the kind of numbers he has put up since May 10th.

That's the thing with Gorman though, when he's hot. When Gorman isn't a scortching fireball on the field, he's still an awesome hitter, but the problem comes with his slumps. Sure, everyone goes through them, but if Gorman can look like the hottest hitter in baseball for stretches, he sure can look like the coldest for awhile too.

Here is something I have found encouraging about Gorman's 2024 campaign though. When Gorman went cold in 2023, it was unspeakably bad - I'm talking a 22 wRC+ and .439 OPS. He was quite literally the worst hitter in baseball for an entire month. This year, Gorman's cold stretch resulted in a 66 wRC+. It's still bad, but his low was not nearly as low as it was before, and if Gorman can manage his values a bit better than he did last year, he's going to have star numbers at the end of this season.

Last year, Gorman had two months where he posted a 150 wRC+ or better and two months where he posted a 135 wRC+ or better. Those are elite numbers. His only other off month in 2023 resulted in an 80 wRC+. But, because of how poor that month of June was for Gorman, his season wRC+ ended at a 118. He's still at a 120 wRC+ so far in 2024, and I think there's a good chance we see him finish among the best hitters in baseball this season at this rate.

Gorman will give you a few prolonged moments of frustration, but for the most part, he's one of the best hitters in the game, and he's figured out how to maximize his swing at the plate to do as much damage as possible, as often as possible.

I think we will see Gorman named as an All-Star this season, and the Cardinals now have a true star on their hands at second base. Someone with 35-40 home run potential at second base is not just rare in today's game, it's rare in the history of the game. Gorman is a trump card that the Cardinals can play that few teams can match, and that makes him extremely valuable to this club.

His health will always be the main concern, but his back issues seem to be much better right now. Gorman is so fun to watch right now, but so is his partner in crime up the middle of the diamond.

#2 - Masyn Winn

Masyn. Winn.

Need I say more?

Fine, I will.

Masyn Winn is a superstar in the making.

John Mozeliak said it himself to myself and a group of bloggers and podcasters on Saturday afternoon. Winn has the Moxy, the makeup, and of course, the overwhelming talent necessary to be a star for a long, long time, and the Cardinals want to maximize every bit of him.

Expectations for Winn this year were that he plays great defense and is a valuable base runner for the Cardinals this year, and hits enough to warrant his glove being in the lineup every day. He's shattered those expectations thus far, putting up a .306 batting average and 126 wRC+ on the season.

Winn's bat-to-ball skills are already shining in a major way. He's a line-drive machine who knows how to beat any kind of pitcher. Winn boasts sneaky power that allows him to run into home runs and consistently slashes doubles and triples into the gaps, but in a few years, he'll be knocking 20 or more home runs each season as well.

With all of the hype surrounding division rival Elly De La Cruz, I think Winn has established himself as the best shortstop in the divison so far and deserves strong consideration for the All-Star Game.

We haven't even talked about his most prominent tools yet coming into the season. His arm is the best in all of baseball at shortstop and Winn is showing the ability to make plays at shortstop that very few people can do. He needs to cut down on the errors, but he has been a huge asset for St. Louis defensively.

He's also a skilled base runner who knows how to take an extra bag or two on a base hit by himself or someone else and swipes some bases as well. Winn is a dynamic talent at the most important position on the diamond, and he's somehow already put himself in some elite company as a rookie for the Cardinals.

#1 - Jordan Walker

We are way too quick to write off guys. Jordan Walker is still the hitter who was a consensus top-3 prospect in all of baseball, but it's clear there are some things he needs to work on in order to fulfill his potential, but that potential is to become the true star in the middle of the Cardinals lineup every day.

Walker is a natural hitter, he is a guy that could hit for a .300 average one day, even in today's game. But he also has a giant frame and hits the guts out of baseballs, meaning if the Cardinals can continue to unlock Walker, he'll be a force to be reckoned with for years to come.

Walker saw his defense in the outfield improve this year, so the noise about him moving positions should quiet down for a while. Sure, long-term he may become a first baseman, but at this stage of his career, he's athletic enough to play right field for the Cardinals.

It's not fun waiting for Walker to get back to St. Louis, but if he's able to recapture his form soon, he was a 20% above league average hitter at the MLB level after being recalled to St. Louis last year, and I am sure he can build on that performance too.

Here is what I find odd. Before the season, Walker would have been the overwhelming favorite young position player among fans. Not just as someone to watch, but as the guy they think has what it takes to lead the club long-term. Now, fans don't seem as sure.

Obviously it is just a small portion of the fan base voting on this poll, but it likely reflects a large group of Cardinals' fans. Walker narrowly edged out Nootbaar for being ranked as the third player that Cardinals' fans have the most confidence in.

I get why Winn and Gorman have garnered so much support recently, I just praised both of them extensively. But Walker just turned 22 years old and more than held his own against big league pitching last year. Walker has all of the talent in the world and is a great guy, so I have a hard time knocking him down the list for a couple of harder months when he's working on his game to improve long-term.