6 fresh trade ideas for the St. Louis Cardinals during trade deadline week

Cardinals and Mariners swap young bats for a young arm

Cardinals receive; RHP Logan Gilbert

Mariners receive: OF Lars Nootbaar, UTL Tommy Edman, and 1B/OF Juan Yepez

This first one is easily the most aggressive move the Cardinals could make at the deadline, but it's one I think they need to strongly consider. Will it hurt? Yes. But the risk is worth the potential reward.

Logan Gilbert is one of the most valuable young arms in today's game. I think many of us have underrated his value as an up-and-coming starter who is under team control through 2027. FanGraphs just ranked the most valuable players in baseball when it comes to trade value, and they had Gilbert ranked number 33 overall, ranked ahead of guys like Randy Arozarena, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Bobby Witt Jr. Just look at what they had to say about him.

"Gilbert is in a different tier, value-wise, than everyone who came before him. I guess that means there are 33 no-doubt ultra-valuable players in baseball this year...

Controllable pitching is really valuable. Good controllable pitching? Now we’re cooking with gas. Gilbert is working on his third straight season of a mid-3.00s FIP, and he’s durable to boot. I’m not sure he’ll ever turn into a fire-breathing monster of an ace, but there’s at least a chance of it...

Players like this don’t come along every day, and when they do, teams generally clutch them like pearls."

Such a player will not come cheap for the Cardinals in a trade. They'll have to offer up a valuable asset of their own, which I think Lars Nootbaar makes the most sense to be the centerpiece of a package. In that same ranking looking at the most valuable trade pieces in baseball, FanGraphs had Nootbaar at number 47.

Nootbaar makes up a significant chunk of Gilbert's value, but not all of it. It's going to take multiple MLB-ready position players to get it done, with one of those needing to be of decent value as well. Tommy Edman fits that mold, and he could play all over the field for the Mariners like he does the Cardinals. Juan Yepez could round out the package, as although he doesn't get opportunities with St. Louis, he could thrive as a hitter in Seattle.

Why all of this for Logan Gilbert? Like FanGraphs, and frankly, the majority of the league will tell you, controllable starting pitching that already has the track record that Gilbert has is coveted by every team in baseball. There's a reason the best starters in baseball are getting $30+ million AAVs over multiple years, and mid-tier starters can land large, multi-year deals as well. Pitching is hard to come by, and cheap pitching at the level of GIlbert is even more difficult.

The Mariners are stacked with young pitching (George Kirby, Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller, and Emerson Hancock) as well as veteran arms like Luis Castillo and Robbie Ray. If anyone can afford to part with Gilbert for a package of young bats, it's them.

It would be hard for the Cardinals to lose Nootbaar and Edman, but St. Louis has plenty of outfield depth, along with Paul DeJong and Masyn Winn ready to take over at shortstop. Gilbert might not be an ace, but he has the upside of one, and at the very least, he gives the Cardinals a very good number two or number three on a cheap contract, allowing them to invest heavily into an ace in free agency. The Cardinals can't pay 3-4 starters free agent type money and also pay a top-end ace. They need cheap pitching also to make it work. Gilbert is the best option they can get.

New York fills multiple holes, Cardinals bolster their pitching staff

Cardinals receive: RHP Clarke Schmidt, RHP Clayton Beeter, and RHP Randy Vasquez

Yankees receive: RHP Jack Flaherty, OF Dylan Carlson, RHP Jordan Hicks, and C Andrew Knizner

At this point, it would be more surprising if a deal between the Cardinals and Yankees did not happen at this year's trade deadline. It makes too much sense from both sides not to pull off a deal.

Part of the difficulty of predicting a trade between the two teams is if there are so many ways it could go. The Yankees need help in their outfield, starting rotation, bullpen, and at catcher. The Cardinals not only have pieces to fill each of those needs, they have multiple options for each one. The clubs could pull off a large, multi-player package, or just look to make a smaller move with one another.

I've already thrown out a lot of trade between the two sides, but I have not yet explored the idea of a trade this large yet.

The Yankees essentially have an answer for all four of their needs in this deal. Jack Flaherty can round out their strong rotation with another arm that can play above the role of a number four or five starter in different moments. Dylan Carlson stabilizes the outfield with really solid defense, a great bat against lefties, and someone who may begin to turn things around against right-handed pitching with more at-bats.

Jordan Hicks helps shorten games even more for the Yankees, and Andrew Knizner is one of the best types of catchers to acquire at a deadline. Pitchers love him, he works hard, and he's consistent behind the plate. With so little time to learn a staff, he'll be a quick learner compared to others.

For the Cardinals, they parlay multiple of their expiring assets, and one with a lot of value and control in Carlson, into a strong package from New York. Clarke Schmidt is 6-6 with a 4.33 ERA while striking out about a batter per nine innings. He's young with multiple years of club control ahead of him, and should already slot in as a number three or four starter for the Cardinals. Outside of one of the Mariners' pitchers, he may be one of the best arms with club control that they could realistically get.

I've been accused a bit of "Beetermania", but I include Clayton Beeter a lot in packages because he's been directly linked to St. Louis already. There is growing concern that Beeter may be more of a reliever long term. Honestly, the stuff he possesses is worth a shot on him as a starter, and if worst case he is a dynamic bullpen arm, so be it.

Randy Vasquez won't blow your socks off, but he's another young starter who looks like a future number four or five in their rotation. Why would the Cardinals want more of those kinds of arms? Well, they keep having to fill those holes with rental arms (Quintana, Happ, Lester, etc.) or give out multi-year deals (Steven Matz). If the Cardinals can have 2-3 starters that are cost controlled in their rotation, that allows them to spend the bigger money on Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, or whatever ace is available.

Rays send the Cardinals 2024 rotation help

Cardinals receive: LHP Jeffrey Springs

Rays receive: RHP Jack Flaherty

(Note: This may require Jordan Montgomery, but if so, I think the Cardinals would get a prospect added in as well)

I heard the concept of this kind of deal on "The Big Show" hosted by Brenden Schaeffer and Andy Humphrey, and I loved the concept of it.

Jeffrey Springs joined the Rays rotation last year and posted a 2.46 ERA in 25 starts and 8 relief appearances. He came out on fire in his first 3 starts of 2023, posting a 0.56 ERA in 16 innings of work, before having to have season-ending Tommy John surgery.

So why on earth would the Cardinals want to acquire him?

Well, this may be one of the unique opportunities to acquire a cost-controlled difference maker for their rotation while only using their expiring assets to do so. Spring is expected back by the middle of 2024 and makes just $5.2 million next year. His salary jumps up to $10.5 million in 2025 and 2026, and there is a $15 million club option for 2027. The Rays are trying to win a World Series this year, and have money wrapped up into a guy who will not pitch until next summer.

Why not parlay him into one of the better starters in this year's market?

There is risk involved with grabbing a pitcher that has just undergone significant surgery, which is why I think it would not take more than a rental arm to pull it off if the Rays are interested. Tampa Bay has been scouting both Flaherty and Montgomery, which is why I really could see this happening.

Montgomery or Flaherty could be flipped for low-ceiling, almost MLB-ready arms or high ceiling, but very far away from MLB-ready players, but this could be a way to turn one of them into a high-upside, MLB-proven pitcher with lots of team control.

Jordan Montgomery heads to the desert

Cardinals receive: LHP Blake Walston

Diamondbacks receive: LHP Jordan Montgomery

The Arizona Diamondbacks have taken the league by storm this year and are a real contender within the National League to make a deep run in October. One way they can really help those chances is by adding Jordan Montgomery to their rotation.

Montgomery has been awesome this year and would strengthen a playoff rotation already featuring Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly.

For the Cardinals, they can back an interesting young arm in Blake Walston, who is pitching in Triple-A right now and could slot in at the back of their rotation next year. The left-handed starter is 6'5 he sits in the low to mid-90s with his fastball and could up his game a bit if he can increase that velocity a bit.

Long-term, he has the ceiling of a middle-of-the-rotation starter, and at just 22 years old, that's a valuable arm to have in your system, especially with how close he is to the big leagues.

Tyler O'Neill joins his former teammate in New York

Cardinals receive: RHP Clayton Beeter

Yankees receive: OF Tyler O'Neill

This is obviously a smaller deal than the one made previously in this story with the Yankees, but it's another scenario worth monitoring.

Although Carlson has a lot of upside still as an outfielder, his bat just does not have the track record that O'Neill has, or at least hasn't reached the heights he has. The Yankees may prefer a smaller deal for O'Neill because of that bat, which is where I can see this fit here.

Even though Beeter just pitched in the MLB Futures Game and is in Triple-A right now, he's not even a top prospect in the Yankees system. Beeter has the kind of stuff the Cardinals often lack from their pitching prospects, which is why taking a flyer here just makes a ton of sense to me.

Trading O'Neill has a chance to come back to bite St. Louis, but it just feels like the path they will be going down here this week. It could be the Yankees or a number of other teams.

Cardinals take a risk on an injured Dodgers stater

Cardinals acquire: RHP Dustin May and RHP Ryan Pepiot

Dodgers Acquire: LHP Jordan Montgomery and SS Paul DeJong

This deal was inspired by my intrigue in the Springs idea. Dustin May has some of the best stuff in all of baseball but just went down with another season-ending elbow injury.

Yes, that is extremely concerning. This is why I find him a fascinating "upside play" for the Cardinals. I think Montgomery is going to fetch more on the market than most people anticipate, but that talent will likely either have a high upside and be far away from the Major Leagues, or the talent will be big league ready but have a low ceiling.

I think both kinds of returns are valuable for St. Louis, but how valuable would an arm like May be to St. Louis if he could bounce back from this latest setback? May is just 25 years old still and had posted a 4-1 record with a 2.63 ERA in 48 innings this year before hitting the injured list. The talent is obvious. The risk is parting with an impending free agent.

I'm not sure I could see St. Louis doing a straight swap, and I don't think I would like that. But throwing Paul DeJong into the deal to fill the Dodgers' shortstop need as well and netting one of their better pitching prospects in Ryan Pepiot would be worth the risk in my book.

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