5 starters the Cardinals could trade for without giving up their best young bats

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Going into the offseason, there will be little room for error when it comes to the St. Louis Cardinals' pursuit of starting pitching help.

Risk will be involved no matter what they do. Signing starters on the open market could end up turning into money they basically lit on fire. Trading for starters could see them lose impact talent without a whole lot in return. The Cardinals cannot avoid this risk, but it would make sense for them to try and mitigate risk with one or two of their acquisitions this winter.

I do NOT mean they should target low-upside starters to avoid that risk. Honestly, that may be even riskier than going after high-end talent. The Cardinals saw what can happen this year if they enter the season without proven, high-end arms in their rotation. They cannot make that same mistake again.

Although we will all inevitably find ways to criticize them if it goes poorly and act as if we knew better, I think we all would much rather see them take big swings this offseason and have that fail than tread water once again. At least do something aggressive, right? Teams with championship aspirations have to take on risk at some point.

But what if there was a way the Cardinals could pursue higher-end arms this winter while also not breaking the bank? They'll need to do so regardless with at least one of their new arms, but what if St. Louis could bring in a starter that the risk of acquisition is not all that crazy?

On the trade market, Dylan Cease will likely be the cream of the crop, and I do believe the Cardinals should be serious about interest in him. But I do think there are other names that may not have quite the upside or team control as Cease provides but could be close to as good of an acquisition without giving up their best young bats.

Someone like Cease or any cost-controlled starter in his tier will cost at least one, if not two of Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, Brendan Donovan, or Masyn Winn in return. If push comes to shove, the Cardinals will have to consider this if it comes down to it (although Nootbaar and Walker are for sure off the table for me), I do believe there are other options that could be had for a significantly cheaper price in terms of trade value.

Let's look at five impact arms the Cardinals could acquire this offseason that won't cost them a ton in trade value

Shane Bieber

It wasn't all that long ago that Shane Bieber was one of the more desirable starters in all of baseball and would've taken a massive haul to acquire. The Guardians misplayed their hand a bit here, and now his value had dropped significantly.

Is Bieber a true ace anymore? Probably not, and that's not why the Cardinals should trade for him anyway. St. Louis has to fill multiple holes in their rotation next year, and Bieber would come at a low cost for the value he could provide as their number-two starter.

In 19 starts this year, Bieber had a 3.77 ERA before landing on the IL with elbow inflammation. The underlying numbers for Bieber were not kind to him, and he's seen his strikeout rate drop from 12.5 K/9 in 2021 to 7.3 in 2023. There is more smoke and mirrors and reliance on the defense in his game than there was before, but having just turned 28 years old, I'm not sure we should expect him to have a massive decline any time soon either.

Let's talk about the price to acquire here. Bieber will be entering a contract year, has seen a decline in performance year (although he did have a 2.88 ERA in 2022), and will be getting a raise from the $10 million salary he was on this year (I would guess in the $13-$16 million range).

If the Cardinals wanted to get the equivalent of Bieber on the free agent market, they are likely looking at a 3-5 year deal at $18 million to $23 million a year. Not exactly a low-risk move.

Acquiring Bieber should not require any of the Cardinals' best position player talent in my opinion. If it would, they should end discussions immediately. Even with the upside Bieber has, I would imagine that the question marks will weigh down the cost significantly.

Names like Tyler O'Neill, Dylan Carlson, Alec Burleson, Andrew Knizner, Ivan Herrera, or even packages involving guys like Cesar Prieto or Michael McGreevy could get the ball rolling here if the Guardians want to retain some value for Bieber before he walks next year. I could maybe see Tommy Edman's name getting involved, but that would be if Bieber's name value adds an extra tax to acquiring him.

The other part about a Bieber deal is that the Cardinals can afford to go after a one-year rental like him and reaccess their rotation following 2024. Yes, they need to bring in some long-term solutions, but committing money long-term to three different arms, on top of Mikolas and Matz, could be risky business, and with names like Tink Hence and Tekoah Roby on the way, they don't need to.

The Guardians may decide it's not worth it and at least hold onto him until the deadline, but I would imagine they are open to offers this winter.

Tyler Glasnow

While Bieber lacks the top-end talent and strikeout stuff he used to have, Tyler Glasnow is dripping with it. In 17 starts this year, Glasnow has a 3.07 ERA while striking out 12.1 batters per nine innings. He just put on a masterful 6-inning, 14-strikeout performance against the Red Sox that showcased just how great he is.

I know, Glasnow always seems to have an injury issue each year. His career high in innings is just 111.2 (which he may eclipse this year), so you cannot rely on him as your only front-line caliber starter. But if you can bring him for a small trade package, he's worth the risk.

The Tampa Bay Rays are in a really difficult situation this offseason. The Wander Franco situation is a dark cloud for the organization right now, and outside of that, they have numerous pitching injuries they'll have to overcome next season. So why would they want to trade Glasnow?

The 30-year-old is due $25 million in his final year of club control next year, and I cannot imagine the Rays wanting to commit that much salary to him if they have so many other holes to fill. Getting value in return for him and freeing up that money will help them revamp their roster on the fly this offseason.

The Rays highest-paid player this year is Zach Eflin at $11 million. I think they would much rather sign multiple names at that price range than commit $25 million to a high with all of the upside in the world, but should he get injured, they lose a player who makes a large chunk of their payroll. With the way the Rays churn out arms, they are a club that can bank on their quantity providing quality.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, cannot bank on that this offseason. They need to acquire two starters with the kind of stuff to lead a rotation, and they cannot just bank on a Zach Eflin-type overperforming for them. Taking a risk on Glasnow makes all of the sense in the world.

Think about it. Which is a scarier thought? Giving out a long-term megadeal to someone like Aaron Nola or Blake Snell and hoping they can live up to the contract? Or bringing in Glasnow for one year and deciding if you want to bring him back next offseason?

Assuming the Rays shop him around, they'll surely get strong offers for him, but nothing like what is rumored to be needed to acquire the likes of Logan Gilbert or Dylan Cease. Glasnow could easily outpitch each of those guys next year, but their club control makes them far more valuable as assets.

Tommy Edman feels like the potential headliner in the deal, especially with their uncertainty at shortstop moving forward. Ivan Herrera could fill a long-term need for them at catcher. Tyler O'Neill would be a potential thumper for their lineup next season, or Dylan Carlson could be a buy-low candidate for them. Alec Burleson is another bat that they may really like the idea of adding to their lineup.

I really do think 2-3 of those names would get a deal done. These are not insignificant pieces, but avoiding giving up any of Walker, Nootbaar, Donovan, Gorman, and Winn while also getting a player as talented as Glasnow is a huge win. The Cardinals have to get rid of some of their surplus position players this offseason to upgrade their pitching - why not swing for the fences with a name like Glasnow?

Again, the Rays do not have to trade Glasnow. Even with how good he is pitching though, I cannot imagine the Rays paying him $25 million next year and then losing him to a qualifying offer the next offseason. Cashing in on his value now and freeing up that money makes all the sense in the world.

Robbie Ray

After winning the American League Cy Young Award in 2021 with the Blue Jays, Robbie Ray signed a 5 year, $115 million deal with the Mariners to be their new ace.

Known for his strikeout stuff, Ray was still good in 2022, but his ERA rose to 3.71 across 189 innings of work. He only made one start in 2023 before having season-ending Tommy John surgery.

Amazingly enough, Seattle still boasts an incredible rotation featuring Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, and Bryce Miller, along with more pitching coming through the pipeline like Emerson Hancock. Seattle's identity is built around their pitching, and they've been open about not wanting to trade from that depth, but I could see them considering offloading Ray's contract to pursue offensive upgrades this winter.

Ray is going to have very little value on the market, but if the Mariners are willing to eat some money on him in order to bring in a bat or two, I think a deal could be made here. The team is rumored to be in on the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes, and even if they strike out there, I'm sure they'll want to allocate more money to their offense.

I could see an Alec Burleson type being the centerpiece of a deal here, and then potentially more if they eat a ton of money on his deal. Honestly, though, the Cardinals could give up next to nothing and take on more of that contract as well. 3 years, $73 million is not a crazy number compared to what others will get on the market this offseason, so it's something worth considering. I doubt Seattle can offload him without taking on any of his money owed, so that number would likely dip no matter what.

Yup, there's a lot of risk with a player coming off Tommy John surgery entering his age 32 season. Ray has also been pretty up and down throughout his career, so you wonder a bit about which version you'd be getting. But if the trade capital cost is low and the Mariners are eating money here, it's worth exploring.

Jose Quintana

The one that got away. Jose Quintana signed a two-year, $26 million deal with the Mets last offseason, and after starting the year on the IL, he's been excellent for a struggling Mets team.

After coming over to St. Louis at the trade deadline last year, Quintana made 12 starts with a 2.01 ERA and even got the nod over Jordan Montgomery and Adam Wainwright in the Wild Card Series. In his 9 starts for the Mets this year, he has a 3.00 ERA and continues to look like one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball.

The Mets have kind of gone back and forth on what their plans are this offseason. They've said they'll be in the pitching market, but there's also been talk that they will be looking ahead toward 2025 or 2026 to compete and that they may even trade slugger Pete Alonso. If either of those things is true, shedding the last year and $13 million of Quintana's contract for prospects would make a lot of sense.

The Cardinals will be revamping their pitching staff this offseason, and for good reason, but bringing in an upgrade who is also a familiar face may be helpful for that overhaul. Quintana pitched to Willson Contreras when they were both in Chicago and are friends, and he's familiar with Andrew Knizner and the Cardinals coaching staff from his time last year.

Quintana would be an excellent number four starter for St. Louis, and wouldn't require them giving up a haul to acquire him. He cannot be the best starter that they add, but he would be an awesome guy to round out their acquisitions.

Paul Blackburn

Similar to Jose Quintana, Paul Blackburn should not be the top starter they bring in, or even the second-best starter they acquire, but he can be a really good back-end of the rotation option for St. Louis.

Blackburn is under club control through 2025, which would give St. Louis a cheap starter for the back of their rotation for multiple years. If they are going to be spending big on top-end starters, getting cost-controlled guys for the back end makes a ton of sense.

Blackburn isn't flashy, striking out 9 batters per 9 innings to the tune of a 3.81 ERA. But that kind of production, especially from the back end of the rotation, would be a huge upgrade to this staff. I don't think Oakland would be in a hurry to move Blackburn, but the cost to acquire shouldn't be crazy either.

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The five options I laid out each have their pros and cons and fill different needs in the Cardinals rotation. The main similarity they all share is they are likely attainable without breaking up the best members of the Cardinals' young core. Some of them would still be costly, but overall, this group provides a path where the Cardinals can upgrade their rotation through free agency and trade this offseason without losing the strength of this club.

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