Ranking the likeliest free agent starting pitching fits for the St. Louis Cardinals

11. Julio Urias

For multiple reasons, I think Julio Urias is extremely unlikely for the Cardinals this offseason.

The Cardinals tend to stay away from acquiring pitchers with controversy off the field, and Urias was suspended 20 games by MLB under the league's domestic violence policy in 2019. Regardless of how you feel about how the legal process worked out, it just does not feel like something the Cardinals would consider based on their history with free agents.

On top of that, Urias will be looking for a big payday, possibly the biggest deal handed out to a pitcher not named Shohei Ohtani, and he is currently having his worst season as a Major Leaguer. In 19 starts this year, Urias has a 4.15 ERA, and he's also been down with an injury as well.

Urias just turned 27 though, so giving him a long-term deal feels less risky than all of these early to mid-30s pitchers that will be hitting the market. He's also finished top-10 in Cy Young voting each of the last two years, so his talent is likely to bounce back.

Still, I'd put this as extremely unlikely for St. Louis. I won't say it's impossible, but I'd be shocked if they came to a deal.

10. Marcus Stroman

For the first three months of the season, Marcus Stroman looked like a Cy Young candidate for the Chicago Cubs, but things have fallen apart for him since then. After a sub-3 ERA all season, Stroman's 6 starts in July saw his ERA skyrocket up to 9.11 over 26.2 innings, and now he is shut down with some injuries and may not even pitch again this year.

The Cubs and Stroman have had a fairly public back and forth over a potential extension, with the Cubs having "no intention" of extending Stroman before the end of the season despite the likelihood that he would opt out of his current contract in the winter. There's a chance he doesn't opt out now after how badly the second half has gone, but it still seems more likely than not.

The Cardinals were not interested in bringing Stroman into St. Louis when he was a free agent after the 2021 season, and I haven't seen their position on that change. Reportedly, the asking price last time around was too high, but there may be more to their lack of interest than that as well. Regardless, whenever insiders are asked about the Cardinals pitching targets, Stroman's name is never linked to them. Maybe that changes come the winter.

9. Jack Flaherty

Jack Flaherty's tenure in St. Louis hit some really high points, but those felt more like a flash in the pan. Much of his tenure felt disappointing, to say the least. And I don't see a reunion coming to try and change that.

Flaherty was traded away from the Cardinals at the trade deadline, and although his first start with the Orioles went really well, things have been rocky since. Flaherty has a 7.07 ERA with Baltimore in 3 starts so far. After he got shelled in his last outing, Flaherty was then scratched from his next turn in the rotation. When Flaherty was asked about the situation, he gave some odd answers.

I honestly don't know what Flaherty's market will be like this winter. If he can turn things around down the stretch for Baltimore, he's a young pitcher with upside hitting the market, something teams would likely pounce on. But at this rate, he may be looking for a one-year "prove-it" deal to reset his market next offseason.

I just don't think the Cardinals would want to bring back an arm that was so up-and-down for them last year. I believe the Cardinals really like Flaherty and wish things had worked out with them, but sometimes you just need to turn the page on things.

8. Lucas Giolito

Flaherty's old high-school teammate, Lucas Giolito is just as inconsistent of a pitcher as Flaherty is, and again, I don't really see the Cardinals wanting to sign up for that.

Giolito has posted two full big league seasons with sub-4.00 ERAs, as well as the shortened COVID season where it was 3.48, two seasons (including this one) where his ERA was above 4.00, and one full season where he had a 6.13 ERA (albeit, his first full season as a starter).

From 2019-2021, he finished 6th, 7th, and 11th in American League Cy Young voting. Since then, it's been a lot less promising for Giolito.

The first half of 2023 was pretty good for him, as he posted a 3.79 ERA in 121 innings for the dysfunctional White Sox. Since being dealt to the Angels, he has a 6.67 ERA in 5 starts.

Giolito will likely get paid big money due to the upside he has as a starter, but can the Cardinals really afford to ride the waves that he has experienced in his career? Every starter on the market has question markets around them, but I feel as though Giolito's upside doesn't make me want to take on his risk like other starters on this market would.

I do think Giolito is the name on this list where I start to see a scenario where St. Louis signs him. One big reason for this is the lack of a qualifying offer attached to him. Four of the next seven names on this list will have a qualifying offer attached to them this winter, causing the Cardinals to lose a draft pick if they sign them. Getting Giolito and keeping their draft pick could be an incentive for them.

7. Eduardo Rodriguez

Eduardo Rodriguez has had himself quite the bounce-back season in 2023. His contract with the Detroit Tigers has gone from looking like a big mistake, to now he will opt out of the remaining money this offseason and cash in again.

After posting a 4.05 ERA in just 91 innings of work last year, Rodriguez has a 3.03 ERA over 113 innings, missing a bit of time with injury but looking very sharp when healthy.

Rodriguez vetoed a trade to the Los Angeles Dodgers at the trade deadline. Had that deal gone through, he may have even more appeal as a player without a qualifying offer attached to him. But now, it's almost a guarantee he will.

Rodriguez is interesting for St. Louis, but where I pause in feeling like he's a top option for them is the lack of consistency with the potentially high price tag. This is by far the best season of his career, and it's almost come with injuries as well. His career ERA is 4.03, and he never had an ERA below 3.81 until this season.

Rodrguez feels too much like a number three to me talent-wise, without the upside to be consistently more than that, and with some pitfalls that could cause him to be less than that. I think the Cardinals will feel similarly about Rodriguez.

Don't get me wrong, I understand why people will talk themselves into him, and he wouldn't be a bad option for the Cardinals, but I think there are too many better options to pursue.

6. Blake Snell

Blake Snell has a lot to like about him as a starter. He leads all of baseball with a 2.73 ERA this year (which shows you a lot about the state of pitching right now), and does so by striking out a ton of guys, 11.7 per nine innings this year to be exact.

Snell has always had strikeout stuff, with his career average K/9 sitting at 11.1. He's also had multiple great seasons, including sub-3.60 ERAs in 2016, 2020, and 2022, and a Cy Young-winning 2018 season where he had a 1.89 ERA in 180.2 innings of work.

There are a few concerns with Snell on the mound. First, he walks a lot of batters, up to 5.1 per nine this year with a career average of 4.1. He doesn't give up many hits or home runs, which helps him keep that ERA down. But if his stuff begins to fade with age and the walks do not come down, things could get messy quickly.

He also does not go very deep into games, but I think that is a bit overblown as a concern in today's game. He's 32nd in innings among all starters in baseball. Only one of those starters above him has a sub-3.00 ERA (Cole) and only nine have a sub-3.50 ERA. Snell may only go between 5-6 innings in most starts, but he'll do so while giving up almost no runs. Logan Webb, the current innings leader, only averages about an inning more per start than Snell.

Snell has actually be pretty durable in his career and really does look like the best talent on the market this offseason. Because of that, I think he may be difficult to sign for St. Louis.

Now that Ohtani isn't going to be pitching in 2024 and there is uncertainty beyond that, Snell is the guy with the best swing-and-miss stuff on the market while also limiting runs. The Cardinals will have to pay big time for Snell, and I wonder if some other teams will make more aggressive offers.

I do believe the Cardinals will be in play for Snell, and that they will seriously consider him for their future rotation. I think he'd be an excellent fit at the top of the Cardinals rotation and is worth the big swing, but I'm curious to see how serious the Cardinals get with him.

5. Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Yoshinobu Yamamoto just turned 25 years old, and has been lighting it up in Japan for years now.

Yamamoto has a 1.34 ERA on the season in 134 innings of work, and his career ERA in Japan is 1.77 in 930.2 innings. Not too shabby. So, he'll get some insane mega-deal, right?

That's the biggest question surrounding him it seems. Some view him as a guy who can come in as a number two or three starter immediately and has the potential to become a true ace for whoever signs him, while others have tempered expectations, especially since he doesn't have elite strikeout numbers in Japan.

He knows how to pitch though, and his stuff is really good. He also will not have a qualifying offer attached to him, and again, he's just now turned 25. Even an eight-year deal would sign him through just his age-33 season. Other guys on this market will be getting long-term deals that take them into their late 30s or early 40s.

It's always tough handing significant money out to a player who you've never seen pitch at the big league level. Unfortunately, Team Japan was so deep at the World Baseball Classic that Yamamoto only got one start, where he went four innings, striking out eight batters and allowing just one hit against Team Australia. Had he gotten a start against Team USA, the Dominican Republic, or Puerto Rico, it would have been a bigger test for scouts to see.

Yamamoto did come in relief for Japan in the semi-final game against Mexico, giving up two runs over 3.1 innings of work. Mexico played great all tournament long, and put up three runs in 4 innings against the highly touted Roki Sasaki.

There's a chance Yamamoto gets close to $200 million in free agency this offseason. The Cardinals could be intrigued by his upside and youth here, so I would keep Yamamoto on the radar for them this offseason.

4. Shota Imanaga

Shota Imanaga got the start for Team Japan in the final against Team USA, going two innings while allowing just one run on four hits. It was an all-hands oall-hands-on-deckn deck kind of game, as no pitcher went more than two innings for Japan.

The Cardinals have already sent scouts to Japan to watch Imanaga pitch, and although it's not a guarantee that he'll be posted this year, it seems increasingly likely. Imanaga will turn 30 soon and has a 2.71 ERA with a 10.8 SO/9 in 126.1 innings in Japan this year.

Imanaga will come at a much lower cost than Yamamoto. He may not have the same upside as the 25-year-old, but he seems like he's ready-made to plus into a number three starter role, with possibly the ability to play up as a number two starter.

The Cardinals like to have left-handed starting pitchers, so adding Imanaga to a rotation with Steven Matz next year makes a lot of sense fit-wise. His contract would also complement a larger signing as well, so they should be able to afford to sign Imanaga while also grabbing one of the top rotation options as well.

3. Jordan Montgomery

Traded by the Cardinals to the Rangers at the deadline, Jordan Montgomery has been flying under the radar as one of the best pitchers in baseball since June. Montgomery ranks 7th in baseball with a 3.12 ERA and now has a 1.73 ERA in four starts since joining Texas.

Some people seem to have forgotten how good Montgomery was for the Cardinals after his rough month of May. He had a sub-2.00 ERA in June and was great in July as well before being dealt to Texas. In his 32 starts as a Cardinal from 2022 to the 2023 deadline, Montgomery had a 3.31 ERA in 184.2 innings of work, exactly the kind of production they need in their rotation.

The trade was necessary for St. Louis. Holding onto an impending free agent when you're out of contention isn't good business, and they were able to net INF Thomas Saggase and RHP Tekoah Roby from the deal as well. Now maybe they can pull a Yankees from 2016 and resign Montgomery in the offseason.

There is obviously familiarity here, which may be helpful for St. Louis as they look to bring in so many new arms as well. Montgomery will likely get a big payday this offseason, but it seems like the industry continues to underrate how good he really is.

I would imagine Montgomery gets anywhere from $20 million to $25 million a year over five or six years. Something in the ballpark of a five-year, $110 million deal could bring Montgomery back to St. Louis. Even a five-year, $125 million deal is not an insane number to reach.

While I still think the Cardinals would need to bring in another high-end starter, Montgomery may be one of the better value players on the pitching market. Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, and Julio Urias could be at or north of a $30 million AAV on their next deal. On paper, you'd rather have one of those names on your team, but Montgomery could end up outpitching any of those guys and be had at a decent discount.

It feels less flashy to bring back a name you traded away, but Montgomery continues to pitch like one of the best in baseball and it's hard not to want him back in St. Louis.

2. Aaron Nola

The top 3 names on this list just feel like St. Louis Cardinals. We've already seen Jordan Montgomery fit in seemingly here, and Aaron Nola just seems like the kind of guy that the Cardinals would want topping their rotation as well.

Nola is as close as possible to a classic starter in today's game. He is always near the top of the league in innings, stays healthy, and just knows how to get outs. He's finished top-10 in Cy Young voting three times in his career, including a fourth-place finish last year, and although his strikeout stuff has dipped a bit this year, he's still averaging 9.3 SO/9.

It's been a weird year for Nola on the mound, posting a 4.49 ERA while allowing the most home runs in the National League with 29. Despite pitching in a hitter's park, Nola has actually pitched better at home this year. He's had a few years in his career where his ERA is higher than you'd like, but overall, he's a durable, consistent arm who won't be the best pitcher in baseball but will consistently be one of the best.

It's always hard to know how guys will age. Nola turned 30 a few months ago, so it's understandable to have skepticism about how he'll fair long-term. Based on how this year has gone though, I do think his contract may not be as crazy as you'd think.

Should he get a six to seven-year deal, I would imagine his AAV is much closer to $25 million than $30 million. Carlos Rodon's contract last winter was $27 million per year over seven years, which feels about the range I see Nola capping out at.

For the Cardinals, there is a lot of value in getting a guy you believe will put up 180-200 innings a year with between a 3.20-3.80 ERA most years. Sure, he's not the wipe-out ace that you dream of, but that's not really in this market this year. Nola provides a lot of stability for a rotation that is so broken right now.

1. Sonny Gray

I already talked about how I'm on the Sonny Gray hype train recently, but that is actually not why I have him at number one on this list. Gray is number one here because he feels like the best fit for the Cardinals this offseason.

No, not as their true number one starter, but in their pursuit of three arms this offseason, Gray would be a perfect number two for this rotation. In 26 starts this season, Gray has a 3.06 ERA and 9.1 SO/9 in 150 innings of work. This is coming off a 2022 season where his ERA was just 3.08 as well.

For his career, Gray has been a vastly underrated pitcher, posting a 3.51 ERA over his 11 big league seasons, and has put up excellent seasons within the NL Central for the Cincinnati Reds. In 2019, he had a 2.87 ERA for the Reds, which is incredible since Great American Ballpark is one of the hardest places to pitch in all of baseball.

For a team that needs to bring in a lot of arms this offseason, Gray also won't come at the top dollar that other arms will, and he's probably more in the 2-4 year range for a contract, rather than those scary 6-7 year deals that can go south quick. Getting Gray at something around 3 years, $60 million would be an excellent move for St. Louis.

Gray wants to be close to home, which outside of Atlanta and Cincinnati, St. Louis is the closest MLB city to Nashville. Gray is a competitor, the kind of guy you want headlining your rotation, and I would be ecstatic if they brought him in.