5 contender-to-contender deals for the Cardinals

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This year's Major League Baseball trade deadline is much different than previous years' deadlines. Due to the extreme parity in the league paired with three Wild Card spots and ownership groups wanting to save money while holding onto prospects, the number of true sellers at the deadline hovers around six teams.

This dearth of teams willing to offload players has forced contending teams or teams who could be contenders by Tuesday to get creative with their deals. The Seattle Mariners and New York Mets struck a deal that sent reliever Ryne Stanek to the Mets for a minor-league outfielder. The Philadelphia Phillies and Baltimore Orioles, potentially two World Series teams, swapped Seranthony Dominguez and Cristian Pache for Austin Hays, and the Boston Red Sox landed James Paxton from the Los Angeles Dodgers.

With the St. Louis Cardinals hovering near the playoffs lately, John Mozeliak may have to shift away from acquiring players from true sellers and toward making trades with teams whom the Cardinals could see in the playoffs. He may even have to trade in division to acquire the necessary pieces for a playoff push.

According to FanGraphs, the Cardinals have a 32.7% chance to make the playoffs; they have a 13.3% chance to win the division and a 19.4% chance to make it via the wild card. Their wild card odds are the 5th best right now, so they have some ground to make up in that department.

If John Mozeliak truly sees the team as a playoff-caliber group, then he will have to make trades that would be uncomfortable in a normal season. It's not often that playoff teams make deals with their potential rivals in October, but that will have to be the case this year. The Cardinals have ample left-handed bats to trade from, and they even have some relievers that may be enticing to other contenders.

Thinking back to 2022, Mozeliak traded away Harrison Bader to the New York Yankees, another team with their eyes set on postseason play. That trade paid dividends for the Cardinals despite the potential for them to face Bader in the playoffs.

Here are five contending teams who match up as good trade partners for the Cardinals.

New York Yankees

This one felt obvious given my prologue. Even after acquiring second baseman/outfielder Jazz Chisholm, the Yankees could still use some help. Their corner players have been among the worst in baseball all year, and the Yankees could use some bullpen help as well. They'll be looking to acquire a reliever with a propensity to strikeout batters, as their relievers rank 18th in baseball in K%.

Despite giving up Drew Thorpe, Michael King, Jhony Brito, and Randy Vasquez to get Juan Soto during the offseason, the Yankees still have some starting pitching depth they can trade from. Chase Hampton is their top pitching prospect, but he's probably two years away. Further down their list features Will Warren, a righty in Triple-A currently, and Clayton Beeter, another right-handed pitcher who has thrown as high as Triple-A.

Beeter had a shoulder injury that is likely to sideline him for the remainder of the season, and if the Cardinals are looking to acquire a pitcher who can help them in the present, he wouldn't fit that bill. Warren's last two starts have been promising, and he only has five starts out of his 20 this year that have gone poorly. He features a plus slider, and he recently added a sweeper, something the Cardinals have been targeting all year in their pitchers.

The best strikeout reliever the Cardinals have on their staff is Ryan Helsley, and he's likely not going anywhere this deadline. Ryan Fernandez is next on the list, and the Cardinals seem quite fond of him. Following Fernandez is Andrew Kittredge with a 23.8% K rate. It's also possible the Cardinals shop JoJo Romero as well; Romero's value is higher than Kittredge's due to team control factors.

If the Cardinals and Yankees want to swap a reliever for a prospect starter, I think a JoJo Romero-for-Will Warren deal could be had. These two are likely the headliners in the deal, and ancillary pieces could be included as well.

Cleveland Guardians

Typically, the Cleveland Guardians are known as a team that produces starting pitchers like crazy. That hasn't been the case this year, as they traded Cal Quantrill away this past offseason, and Shane Bieber is out for the year due to an elbow injury. Therefore, their starting staff has been toiling near the bottom of the league according to ERA all year.

In addition to starting pitching, the Guardians could also use a right fielder. Steven Kwan has been excellent in left field for them, but their right fielder, Will Brennan, has just a 92 OPS+ in right field, and his defense has been lackluster as well. The Guardians are likely prioritizing a starting pitcher to deepen a staff that needs some help, but they are likely also aiming to acquire a right fielder with plus offense and defense.

Luckily, the Cardinals boast ample outfielders who are strong offensively. Alec Burleson's emergence this year and Brendan Donovan's success in left field have once again created a log jam of sorts for the Cardinals. Tommy Edman is due back soon, Michael Siani has played some of the best defense in the league in center, and Lars Nootbaar remains a good all-around player in the outfield. Should Cleveland want to attempt a project, they could call about Dylan Carlson as well.

My focus is on Lars Nootbaar here. He holds quite a bit of trade value given his career wRC+ of 116 and the fact that he is hitting arbitration for the first time next year. In exchange, the Cardinals could target any one of Cleveland's more than capable relievers. Their bullpen has been the best in the league all year, so they are likely willing to trade from their depth to improve the outfield.

One reliever, perhaps Nick Sandlin, likely isn't enough to land Nootbaar alone. Therefore, the Cardinals could ask for a prospect in addition to Sandlin.

Kansas City Royals

The Cardinals' cross-state rivals are in the thick of the playoff hunt. Their offseason acquisitions, particularly those in the rotation, have paid massive dividends for the team. Their outfield, however, has been a weak point for the team. Their outfield OPS ranks second-to-last in the majors, so they're looking to add a versatile outfielder.

The Royals are looking to add an outfielder who can get on base, hopefully, one who also plays a capable corner outfield position. Their current leadoff hitter, Adam Frazier, has a .278 on-base percentage, and just about anything can beat that.

Once again, the Cardinals have plenty of outfielders they could dangle to entice the Royals here. Lars Nootbaar seems a likely candidate as does Dylan Carlson. Carlson has struggled mightily lately, but he's still just 25, he has three years of team control remaining, and he was once an above-average hitter in 2021. Carlson is an ideal change-of-scenery candidate this year, and perhaps he could tap into something in western Missouri.

Carlson's trade value is low at this point, so the Cardinals can't ask for much in a deal that includes him. Should St. Louis send Lars Nootbaar, they could ask for quite a bit from the Royals. Kansas City's farm system is one of the worst in the league, but they do have some capable prospects and major leaguers. If the Cardinals send over Dylan Carlson, they can likely expect a player like Frank Mozzicato or Mason Barnett in exchange. Nootbaar will net a return with more prospects and a major-league reliever perhaps.

The Royals don't have much to offer, so they may not be an ideal trade partner, but the Cardinals could still milk something out of a weak farm system and deep bullpen.

Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners have been one of the most active teams already this deadline; they've added outfielder Randy Arozarena, reliever Yimi Garcia, and they've traded away reliever Ryne Stanek. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has been quite busy, as was the expectation.

Dipoto and John Mozeliak are familiar with each other, and the two occasionally operate in similar ways. The Mariners are in desperate need of a first baseman after releasing Ty France. They promoted their number six prospect Tyler Locklear, but he's been struggling out of the gate. A veteran first baseman is probably their ideal candidate. Seattle could also be looking to improve at second base, as Jorge Polanco is slashing .201/.287/.310.

Paul Goldschmidt is not going to be traded this year unless the Cardinals fall out of contention these next couple of days. The Cardinals boast ample first base depth, as Alec Burleson is the next man up there, and Jordan Walker could theoretically receive reps there. Also, Luken Baker is still destroying baseballs in the minor leagues. At second base, the most obvious candidate to be dealt is Nolan Gorman.

The Mariners are full of starting pitching. I wrote recently about how the Cardinals could send Thomas Saggese to Seattle for Emerson Hancock, but Nolan Gorman could also be enough to bring back Hancock. Luken Baker plus a pitching prospect like Sem Robberse or Cooper Hjerpe could bring back Emerson Hancock as well.

If the Cardinals create a larger package around either Baker or Gorman, they could land Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller, though Woo is the more likely candidate to be dealt from the Mariners' starting rotation. If the Mariners and Cardinals can hash out a deal, these two contending teams are probably the best fits for each other. The Cardinals are flush with infielders, and the Mariners have more pitching than they know what to do with.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks are getting some starting pitchers back soon, as Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez are throwing simulated games now. This will bolster their starting rotation. The D-Backs can shift their focus to the bullpen with these returns. Despite already adding A.J. Puk, the Diamondbacks could continue to bolster their relief corps.

The Diamondbacks are healthy and stable on the position player side, so they'll look to continue to bolster their pitching groups in both the rotation and the 'pen. The Diamondbacks' general manager, Mike Hazen, stated that he's looking at pitchers with ample team control. The Diamondbacks have plenty of depth on the position player side to trade from, and their farm system is strong, particularly with position players.

The Cardinals are also looking for starting pitching, but if they swing a deal for a player like Erick Fedde, Cal Quantrill, or Yusei Kikuchi, they could trade away one of their starters or starting pitching prospects. Andre Pallante has done quite well as a starter for the Cardinals, and he will likely lose his spot should John Mozeliak trade for a starter. This loss could result in him becoming a trade candidate.

Zack Thompson has been yo-yoed as a starter and a reliever in both the majors and at Triple-A, and players like Gordon Graceffo and Sem Robberse could be trade candidates. If the Cardinals are trading away these prospects with ample team control, they'll look to get more than just a rental in return. Randal Grichuk is a right-handed outfielder who could play center field, something the Cardinals are searching for, but he's just a rental.

If St. Louis trades one of the aforementioned pitchers, Grichuk alone wouldn't cut it. Jake McCarthy is surplus given the glut of outfielders the D-Backs have. McCarthy bats left-handed, but his splits actually favor left-handed pitchers. He could be a sneaky addition should the Cardinals send one of Matthew Liberatore, Andre Pallante, Zack Thompson, Gordon Graceffo, or Sem Robberse to Arizona.

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