Ranking the Cardinals' needs at the trade deadline
The Cardinals have three needs this deadline. Which is most pressing?
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The trade deadline presents an opportunity for teams in the playoff hunt to improve in specific areas. After 100 games or so, the weaknesses of a team are quite clear, and that's exactly the case for the St. Louis Cardinals.
These needs aren't necessarily related to injuries like the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers are experiencing. Rather, the needs of the Cardinals are simply due to holes in the roster and some weak performances by key players.
Which of the following scenarios would you choose for the #STLCards at the deadline if it meant adding only that to the current roster, and nothing more?
— Brandon Kiley (@BKSportsTalk) July 17, 2024
When shopping at this year's trade deadline, John Mozeliak, the team's president of baseball operations, must identify and acquire players that fill these needs. Due to the competitive nature of the deadline, he will have to get creative or be ready to adjust with contingency plans.
These needs are listed in ascending order, starting with the least important need at the deadline.
3. Right-handed bench bat
With so many left-handed batters in the lineup, the Cardinals are searching for a right-handed bat to offset them, particularly in the outfield. All four of the team's primary outfielders -- Brendan Donovan, Michael Siani, Lars Nootbaar, and Alec Burleson -- hit left-handed. The fifth outfielder, Dylan Carlson, is a switch hitter. Therefore, a right-handed hitter who could occasionally play center field would be a strong addition.
However, this need isn't overly pressing. Despite his struggles this year at the major league level and the organization's insistence (rightfully so) at keeping him in Triple-A Memphis to work on things, the Cardinals have Jordan Walker waiting in the wings. Additionally, Tommy Edman is due back in the near future following a rehab stint. Edman has fared quite well against left-handed pitchers in his career.
The Cardinals' right-handed hitters have a team wRC+ of 102 this year, 11th in the league. If Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado can be even 80% of their career numbers at this point, and if Tommy Edman provides an offensive boost compared to Michael Siani in the outfield, a right-handed bench bat may not be fully necessary, and those resources could be allocated elsewhere.
Due to the team's ample right-handed depth in Ivan Herrera, Jordan Walker, and the imminent return of Tommy Edman, finding a right-handed bench bat should not be the greatest focus for John Mozeliak at the deadline. Players like Randal Grichuk and Tommy Pham would be obvious candidates, but Mo could go big and aim for a player like Brent Rooker or Taylor Ward.
2. Mid-to-high-leverage reliever
This need is actually due to injuries this year. Keynan Middleton, Mozeliak's relief signing this offseason, and Riley O'Brien have both been battling injuries all year. O'Brien has started his rehab stint, but Middleton won't throw a pitch all year.
The Cardinals' bullpen has probably been the team's strongest positional group this year. Ryan Helsley leads the league in saves, and JoJo Romero and Andrew Kittredge have been near the top of the league in holds this year. While some cracks have begun to show amongst the three, they are still reliable arms late in games and in high-leverage situations.
However, they've been deployed relatively frequently this year, and teams are starting to get quite familiar with what was once the best three-headed relief corps in baseball. Therefore, another reliever, particularly a right-handed one who is comfortable in high-leverage situations, should be a primary target for Mozeliak at the deadline.
The Cardinals' relievers have the 4th-best ERA as a staff in baseball. They've thrown the 15th-most innings this year, so fatigue isn't too much of an issue at this point. Regardless, teams could always use bullpen help at this point in the year.
The cost of a reliever isn't always clear at this time of the year. The Kansas City Royals gave up quite a bit to land Washington Nationals' reliever Hunter Harvey a couple of weeks ago; that could provide a template for the remaining teams who wish to make swaps this deadline.
Ideally, this reliever will be a left-handed guy. With John King and Matthew Liberatore being slotted as middle relief guys, JoJo Romero is by himself at the back of the 'pen. A righty to spell Kittredge from time to time would do well, too. Either way, another mid-to-high-leverage reliever would do wonders for an already strong bullpen group.
1. Starting pitcher
The foremost of the team's needs this trade deadline would be nabbing a starting pitcher, particularly one who can slot in above Miles Mikolas, Lance Lynn, Andre Pallante, and even possibly Kyle Gibson. The Cardinals have their #1 pitcher in Sonny Gray. His last few starts have been a bit rough, but he's been strong overall throughout the year.
The reason a starting pitcher is the preeminent need this offseason is because the team's rotation won't be able to stack up against others in the playoffs. Most teams in the postseason have two dominant pitchers and a third who can hold his own most nights. Right now, the Cardinals have one strong starter and a collection of guys who may or may not keep the game close on any given night.
One more reliable starter would change the rotation down the stretch and in the playoffs. Right now, the Cardinals' starting staff ranks 21st in ERA, 17th in K's per nine, and 17th in FIP. A strikeout pitcher who can slot in as the team's number two starter would go a long way not just in the final two months of the regular season but also in a playoff series.
Nathan Eovaldi, Erick Fedde, and Zach Eflin have all been linked directly to the Cardinals. Should the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays decide to be sellers this year, two of those three will be available, and Max Scherzer could even be had. John Mozeliak will stay away from Garrett Crochet due to his exorbitant cost; outside of those five pitchers, there aren't many other options for starters.
Landing Eovaldi would be the biggest fish, but even Erick Fedde would change the shape and feel of the rotation. In a playoff environment that requires two high-end starters to advance, the Cardinals must prioritize a starting pitcher who can slot in just behind Sonny Gray.
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