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4 untouchable Cardinals' players during the Winter Meetings
With the Winter Meetings having kicked off, St. Louis figures to be active in the relief and trade markets. Which players are "untouchable" in trades?
The 2023 Winter Meetings started on Sunday. The St. Louis Cardinals have been rumored to be active participants in this year's gathering of baseball's General Managers, writers, and fans in general. The Winter Meetings will end on November 6th.
There are plenty of free-agent relievers that the Cardinals figure to extend offers to. For as much as the starting rotation struggled last year, the bullpen was just as dismal. St. Louis blew 44% of their saves last year. Ryan Helsley blew five saves in nineteen opportunities, Giovanny Gallegos blew six saves in sixteen opportunities, and Andre Pallante blew five saves in as many opportunities. Those three relievers all figure to have prominent roles in 2024, only highlighting the team's need for another high-leverage reliever.
In addition to beefing up the bullpen, John Mozeliak intends on exploring the trade market. Players such as Tyler Glasnow, Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, and even Corbin Burnes could become a Cardinal during the Winter Meetings. Bullpen players such as Emmanuel Clase could also be had, although that seems less likely.
St. Louis has ample positional depth to trade from. They have a glut of both infielders and outfielders who are being blocked by each other. Also, St. Louis has players with plenty of team control such as Dylan Carlson, Tommy Edman, and Brendan Donovan who could be appealing to rival teams. Tyler O'Neill, even though he is a free agent after 2024, is most likely to be traded per recent statements by Mozeliak.
There are a handful of players who John Mozeliak would like to hold on to. He sees tremendous value in these players, and while they would net a decent return, Mozeliak sees more value in having them on the team than whatever player they could bring back. Katie Woo (subscription required) discusses some players in her recent Winter Meetings primer.
While every player has a price, there are certain players who are very valuable to the Cardinals. Here are four "untouchable" Cardinal players.
Lars Nootbaar
I wrote during the Trade Deadline saga that Lars Nootbaar was untouchable even then, and the same remains true today. Nootbaar is a more than capable outfielder with above-average offense who is an international superstar. Nootbaar has been paramount in the team's possible courting of Yoshinobu Yamamoto as well.
Rival teams have approached the Cardinals about Lars Nootbaar, though St. Louis has no inclination to move him. Brendan Donovan is also a popular name, and though the Cardinals surely would not want to part with Donovan’s high ceiling, having Tommy Edman, Nolan Gorman and Masyn Winn might make that move easier to stomach, should they have to.
Offensively, Lars finished 2023 with a .261/.367/.418 slash line to go along with fourteen home runs, forty-six runs batted in, and eleven stolen bases in 503 plate appearances; he had a 115 OPS+ last year. Nootbaar improved his on-base skills and sacrificed his power last year, but the results appeared promising as his batting average jumped nearly fifty-five points. He had a walk rate of 14.3% (top 5% of the league) and a strikeout rate of 19.7%.
On the defensive side of the game, Nootbaar logged a positive Outs Above Average total in both center field (+1 OOA) and left field (+2 OAA). He ranks in the 80th percentile in range and the 78th percentile in arm strength. He also accumulated three Defensive Runs Saved. While Nootbaar could find time in center field, he is most comfortable in the corner outfield, particularly left field.
Given a full season, Lars Nootbaar has the potential to be a 4.5-5.5 bWAR player. He has great bat-to-ball and on-base skills, and his left-handed bat profiles well in any lineup. Lars Nootbaar is not going to be traded this offseason, and John Mozeliak is wise to keep him on the roster. Nootbaar isn't a free agent until after the 2027 season either, so he is very controllable and cheap compared to the free-agent outfielders.
Nolan Arenado
Nolan Arenado is the star of the team. With players such as Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina, and Albert Pujols now retired, Nolan Arenado must step up and be the leader of the team. The future Hall of Famer must step up and fill the void of the veteran Cardinal stars.
Arenado's career is stellar. In eleven seasons, he has racked up 54.5 bWAR, he has ten Gold Gloves, six Platinum Gloves, five Silver Slugger Awards, and he has been an All-Star eight times. Nolan is a baller on both sides of the game, and St. Louis is better with him on the team. He will be the cornerstone of the roster through the 2027 season.
While Nolan Arenado by himself could bring an ace starting pitcher back to the Cardinals (see Walker Buehler), his bat and glove are best served in St. Louis. Should John Mozeliak trade Nolan Arenado a year after he opted into his contract in St. Louis and stated confidence in the team, it would send a message that he doesn't see the team as a true competitor. Additionally, Arenado holds a full no-trade clause in his contract.
Arenado is projected to have a slash line of .269/.327/.486 with 26 home runs and 88 runs batted in. While these numbers are a step below his career averages, they are better than last year's stats. Hopefully, he returns to his Gold Glove form as well. Nolan Arenado should be untouchable this offseason in most trades.
Paul Goldschmidt
Paul Goldschmidt joined the Cardinals in the 2018 offseason, and since then he has done nothing but help the Cardinals win. He won the National League Most Valuable Player in 2022, and he has been foundational at first base. He will be a free agent at the end of the 2024 season.
There was some smoke regarding Paul Goldschmidt's availability at the Trade Deadline this past year, but John Mozeliak held on to his prized first baseman. Ultimately, Goldy has the final say in any potential trades given his no-trade clause. This limits Mozeliak's freedom with whom he can deal. Should Mo strike a deal on paper with a team that Goldy doesn't want to play for, he can block the trade and hamper Mozeliak's ability to make a trade.
During his tenure in St. Louis, Paul Goldschmidt has slashed .293/.377/.512 for an OPS+ of 145. He is projected to hit .281/.365/.491 in 2024, statistics close enough to his average in St. Louis and statistics that are stellar for a thirty-six-year-old player. Goldy could have a 4.0-bWAR season should things go as planned next year.
Trading Goldschmidt this offseason would be challenging due to his no-trade clause, but more importantly, trading Goldschmidt removes a talented batter and defender from the lineup. St. Louis is better served keeping him on the roster, and he should be virtually un-tradeable.
Jordan Walker
The Cardinals' prized rookie, Jordan Walker should be a fixture in the field for at least the next six years. Given the unprecedented contract handed out to Jackson Chourio, St. Louis fans could become very familiar with the now-sophomore, Jordan Walker.
Walker's rookie season was a bit of a rollercoaster. He was able to start the season off in St. Louis after a strong performance in Spring Training. He started off the season with a hitting streak that hadn't been done in decades, and he was one of the few exciting aspects of a team that got off to a very slow start.
John Mozeliak sent Jordan Walker down to AAA in May to work on his defense and clear up the outfield logjam. He was called back up to the majors just twenty games later, and he stayed in St. Louis for the remainder of the season. Walker ended the year with sixteen home runs, fifty-one runs batted in, and seven stolen bases to go along with a triple slash of .276/.342/.445 and an OPS+ of 114.
Despite those eye-popping offensive numbers as a rookie, Walker still had a negative bWAR total (-0.1) due to his lackluster defense. He is working with famed Cardinal outfielder Willie McGee to improve his defense, and reports have been positive. His arm strength is off the charts, but his range and route-taking could use some improvement, particularly when moving laterally.
Walker's age, offensive ceiling, and work ethic are unmatched, and he is more than likely untouchable in trades this offseason. Mozeliak would be wise to extend a multi-year contract to Walker, perhaps eight or nine years in length.
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