4 trade locations and returns for Cardinals' All-Star closer Ryan Helsley

Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays aren't off to their usual strong start. As of May 13th, the Rays sit in 4th place in the tough American League East with a record of 20-21. Their offense has been the primary culprit in their underperformance, but their bullpen has left much to be desired as well.

The Rays' bullpen ranks 29th in total bWAR, 27th in ERA, last in FIP, and they've blown 8 of 19 save opportunities this year. They could use some serious help, especially late in games. Enter Ryan Helsley.

The Cardinals have been fleeced by the Rays before in a trade, so President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak should enter these discussions with great caution. The Rays cycle through prospects like toilet paper, so they could part with some of their best to make for a playoff push down the stretch this year.

Most of the Rays' top prospects are quite young, and those that are near the majors are either of no use to the Cardinals due to their position or would cost too much in return. Therefore, in order to maximize Helsley's value, Mo must pluck from the Rays' MLB team. The Cardinals could use some pop in their lineup. They could also use a first baseman, especially if Paul Goldschmidt is traded at the deadline.

I would propose a Ryan Helsley trade, possibly as part of a package, for Rays' first baseman Yandy Diaz. Diaz, 32, is a veteran of the game, and he seemed to have tapped into something last year. As a result, Tampa Bay extended him a 3-year, $24 million deal that included a club option on the back end. Diaz is affordable, has a history of hitting very well, and may have fallen out of favor in Tampa Bay.

He has a .250/.313/.356 slash line this year, but his career numbers are significantly better. Should the Cardinals trade Goldschmidt at this deadline, they could bring in Diaz for Helsley, and their first base situation will be settled for at least the next two years.

This trade will have to get creative to make it work, but it's an interesting proposal nonetheless.

Cardinals trade: RHP Ryan Helsley and 1B/DH Luken Baker
Rays trade: 1B Yandy Diaz and LHP Mason Montgomery

Philadelphia Phillies

It's felt like the Phillies have needed relief pitching for the last 3 seasons. Their rotation and offense have always been strong, but their shaky relievers have made fans sweat out many a playoff game recently. While the bullpen is much improved compared to the group that was pushed out 3 years ago, there's still plenty of room for growth.

The Phillies rank 25th in reliever bWAR, 22nd in ERA, and 14th in walk rate. While their needs aren't as exacerbated as the Rays' needs, Philly could still use a reliable arm late in games. Jose Alvarado leads the team with 7 saves, but his 3.78 ERA and propensity to walk batters aren't the most reliable among closers.

Ryan Helsley would immediately help their bullpen. He would bring with him a strong walk rate and assurance late in games. Alvarado is a lefty, so he and Helsley can pitch to their strengths late in the game, giving manager Rob Thomson some options.

Mick Abel is the Phillies #3 prospect (#63 in baseball), but he would likely be out of reach in a trade that included only Ryan Helsley. It's possible the Phillies are enticed enough to trade away one of their two best pitching prospects, though. If the Cardinals move one of their own top prospects, the tall righty could join the discussions. The Cardinals and Phillies could swap relievers, and Orion Kerkering could come back in return, but his age and performance thus far may make the Phillies wary of dealing him. In the end, a deal must be made between these two teams.

Cardinals trade: RHP Ryan Helsley and RHP Michael McGreevy
Phillies trade: RHP Mick Abel

New York Yankees

The New York Yankees are making a serious playoff push this year. They've been battling the Baltimore Orioles throughout the first month of the season for the top spot in the American League East. Their playoff odds currently stand at 92.3% according to Fangraphs, so they're a virtual lock at this point.

A strong bullpen will help the Pinstripes shorten games even more. Their bullpen currently has the 2nd-best ERA, but they are only striking out 8 batters per nine innings. Also, they're currently 11th in fWAR as a group. Clay Holmes is near the top of the league with 12 saves, so it will be tough to replace him as the team's closer. Helsley would help strengthen an already strong group for the Yankees.

Holmes and Helsley have complimentary splits; Holmes is better against right-handed batters while Helsley has had more success against lefties. The two could work in tandem and switch out late in games depending on which batters are due up for the opponent.

In exchange, the Cardinals could call for one of the Yankees' top-100 prospects. Chase Hampton is the Yankees' lone pitcher left in the top 100 after their trade for Juan Soto. He's an enticing player, but he has been hurt all year with shoulder discomfort. When healthy, Hampton projects to be a #3 starting pitcher, something the Cardinals could use in their rotation. He features a plus fastball that can peak around 97 MPH, a tight slider with great break, and a strong cutter. Hampton's arsenal is deep, as he throws 5 pitches in total.

A Helsley-for-Hampton trade would be interesting. He's currently 22, and he last appeared at Double-A for the Yankees. He pitched 59.2 innings there with a 4.37 ERA, a .240 batting average against, and a 68-21 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Hampton would be another pitcher with decent upside for the Cardinals to go along with Cooper Hjerpe, Quinn Matthews, and Sem Robberse.

Cardinals trade: RHP Ryan Helsley
Yankees trade: RHP Chase Hampton

Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles are one of the best teams in baseball. Bolstered by an other-worldly offense, the Orioles are off to a 26-13 start to the season. They currently hold the top spot in the competitive American League East.

Baltimore's bullpen isn't the worst by most metrics; they rank 11th in K/9, 8th in BB/9, 8th in ERA, 9th in FIP, and 9th in fWAR. However, if they want to make a serious push in the playoffs, they'll need a shutdown reliever at the back of their bullpen. As a staff, they have only 13 saves, and Craig Kimbrel, one of their closers this year, has a 4.11 ERA, and it's going in the wrong direction recently. Over the last two weeks, Kimbrel has allowed 3 runs in 4 innings, and batters have a .768 OPS against him.

Yennier Cano, the Orioles' other "closer", was tabbed to be the setup man at the offset of the season, but his role has grown as Kimbrel's performance has weakened.

Bob Nightengale went as far as mentioning Helsley by name as a trade candidate for the Baltimore Orioles. Craig Kimbrel's struggles have escalated the Orioles' urgency in beefing up their relief corps this year. Helsley would slot in as their closer.

The Orioles' farm system is known for producing talented position players. Where they lack is the pitching department. A trade for Helsley this year will beef up their bullpen, but it will also give them an entire offseason to turn Helsley back into a starting pitcher should they choose to do so. The issue with trade value is that right now Helsley is just a closer with 1.5 years of team control left; he's not a starter with that control.

The Orioles' prospects in the top 100 are likely out of reach (Jackson Holliday #1, Samuel Basallo #14, Coby Mayo #21, and Heston Kjerstad #23) with Helsley by himself. However, the Cardinals could pry any one of them away with a huge trade. The Orioles could use another starting pitcher right now, especially one with consistency and a solid floor. Their center fielder, Cedric Mullins, is also struggling this year with a .192/.244/.367 slash line.

This deal all depends on what the Orioles want with Helsley. Do they improve their outfield or deepen their rotation?

Cardinals trade: RHP Ryan Helsley, RHP Kyle Gibson, $1.5 million (covers Gibson's buyout and his bonus if he pitches ore than 175 innings this year)
Orioles trade: Heston Kjerstad