4 starting pitchers the St. Louis Cardinals could buy low on to save their rotation

Michael Kopech

If you're a prospect guru, you'll know the name Michael Kopech from years of hype surrounding the elite stuff he possesses and his ceiling as a number-one starter. He had a really promising year back in 2021, and took a slight step back in 2022, but has really regressed statistically in 2023, posting a 5.97 ERA in his first six starts.

So, why would I suggest he'd be an upgrade for the Cardinals' rotation? Well, if you're familiar with the Stuff+ stat, it basically measures how "nasty" a player's pitches are based on release point, velocity, movement, and spin rate. Out of pitchers who have thrown 30+ innings this year, Kopech ranks 9th in all of baseball.

This isn't like Jordan Hicks from prior seasons where the stuff look's good but he doesn't actually punch guys out. In 2021, Kopech had a 13.4 K/9 and matched that with a 2.97 FIP as well. He struggled to strike out guys at the same rate last year, but he's back up to a 9.7 K/9 in 2023.

While Dusty Blake has gotten a lot of flack this year for his ability as a pitching coach, it's not really within his control that he's working with a lot of veteran starters who lack strikeout stuff. Blake is an analytics guru who can help starters miss more bats, and pairing him with Kopech could do wonders for the 27-year-old and the Cardinals' staff.

Kopech is under team control through 2025, making him an immediate and long-term upgrade for the Cardinals. If the White Sox are willing to cut bait, even if it takes a valuable young bat, the Cardinals should strongly consider this.

Alex Cobb

Oh, we all remember Alex Cobb, the San Francisco Giants starter who the Cardinals allowed to throw a complete game shutout against them.

Cobb is having an awesome season so far, posting a 2.43 ERA and an 8.9 K/9 in his first six starts. So how is Cobb a "buy-low" guy? Well, the Giants may be willing to capitalize on his hot start while he has value. Sometimes you want to stay away from pitchers like this, but there are underlying stats that show that what Cobb is doing right now is very sustainable.

Cobb has somehow maintained that 2.43 ERA while allowing the 4th-highest BABIP in all of baseball at .360. While he ranks very low in hard-hit rate which is concerning, his whiff rate and lack of walks really help his case. You would expect that BABIP to drop over the course of the season as well, which could increase his success even more.

Cobb's 3.00 FIP and 2.99 xFIP also indicate that even with some regression, he'd still be a very good pitcher. The Cardinals need guys they can rely on right now, and there is no reason to believe Cobb couldn't be that guy fro them this year.

Lance Lynn

Now here is a true "buy-low" candidate in the form of Lance Lynn.

In six starts this year, Lynn has an awful 7.16 ERA, and his 5.45 FIP isn't much better. Lynn makes $18.5 million this year with an $18 million club option for next year, but why would the Cardinals want to take on the rest of his 2023 contract?

First, Lynn does rank 6th in baseball with an 11.57 K/9, and his 3.98 xFIP does indicate that he's run into some back luck so far as well. We are talking about buy-low guys here, so you're not going to find a true buy-low candidate who is without some flaws.

His Baseball Savant page is a mess, but his K%, whiff%, and fastball spin are still elite. I'm not sure the White Sox could ask for much in a deal, which the Cardinals could take advantage of.

Tyler Glasnow

Maybe this is just me wanting to be proven right after getting ripped back in 2021 for suggesting the Cardinals trade Juan Yepez for Tyler Glasnow (which, I think most people would agree with me on now). But seriously, I continue to think that Glasnow is worth the risk for St. Louis.

Glasnow began 2023 back on the IL, which is a huge concern with him. But when he is on the field, he is elite. Check out his key stats from year to year since 2019.

2019: 6-1, 1.78 ERA, 60.2 IP, 0.89 WHIP, 2.26 FIP, 11.3 K/9
2020: 5-1, 4.08 ERA, 57.1 IP, 1.134 WHIP, 3.66 FIP, 14.3 K/9
2021: 5-2, 2.66 ERA, 88 IP, 0.93 WHIP, 2.77 FIP, 12.6 K/9
2022: 0-0, 1.35 ERA, 6.2 IP, 0.90 WHIP, 2.96 FIP, 13.5 K/9 (returned from injury in September)

The outlier season is the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, which is kind of a weird season to take any findings from for any player. Otherwise, the highest ERA Glasnow has had is 2.66, and he's maintained elite WHIP, FIP, and K/9 numbers. Again, this is a buy-low. If Glasnow had stayed on the field the last few years, he'd require an elite package of prospects to acquire.

Glasnow signed an extension with the Rays this past offseason that has him under contract through 2024, so the Cardinals would get their hands on a starter who will be doing everything in his power to stay on the field to cash in for a huge deal next offseason. Considering it shouldn't take anyone like Maysn Winn, Tink Hence, or guys like that to acquire, I'd be all over this deal. The Cardinals cannot be afraid to make big swings to improve this club, and I'd much rather have Glasnow on my team and see if he is healthy than bargain shop for pitch to contact veterans.