4 free agent outfielders the Cardinals may target this offseason

Kevin Kiermaier

Kevin Kiermaier is known for his defensive prowess in center. In his 10-year career, he has accumulated 92 Outs Above Average (OAA) with 12 OAA just this past year in Toronto. Kiermaier has also shown the ability to hit well, particularly against right-handed pitchers. His career OPS+ against righties is 105 with a slugging percentage in the low-.400s. Kiermaier would immediately slot into the center field position for the Cardinals in 2024. The 33-year-old isn't a stout offensive player, but the Cardinals can live with an OPS in the mid-.700s if his defense stands the test of time.

Should the Cardinals sign Kiermaier, that would give them more flexibility across the field. Any one of Tommy Edman, Nolan Gorman, or Brendan Donovan could become huge trade pieces for a starting pitcher. His signing would also allow the Cardinals to trade one of Tyler O'Neill or Dylan Carlson, assuming they are on the trade block. Additionally, Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker can be the primary players in the corner spots in the outfield.

Given Kiermaier's defensive abilities, Jordan Walker can worry less about covering ground to his right. Kevin Kiermaier excels at going either to his right or left, thus allowing Walker to shade more towards the corner where he can flex his arm strength. Signing a center fielder with a defensive track record such as Kiermaier's would provide an immediate boost to the Cardinals' outfield. Lars Nootbaar, a budding star, can focus on left field, a position that he has played well his entire career. Kevin's signing would also allow the front office to trade some otherwise valuable players to fulfill pitching needs.

Harrison Bader

Wouldn't a reunion with a former beloved player be nice? Harrison Bader played his first 5.5 years with the St. Louis Cardinals. His effort, determination, and positive clubhouse presence were adored by fans. While Bader's bat never quite caught up to his defensive abilities, it was still serviceable in St. Louis. Bader is a true center fielder, similar to Kevin Kiermaier. Signing him would provide the Cardinals with comparable benefits that signing Kiermaier would have.

Bader is a slightly less polished fielder than Kevin Kiermaier, but he is 4 years younger and may be more apt to sign with St. Louis for a reunion tour. Bader racked up 9 OAA this year in center, and he has multiple years in double digits, including 2018 where he accumulated 18 OAA. He would provide an immediate boost to the team's outfield defense and would allow John Mozeliak the freedom to trade from the team's depth.

The main concern with Harrison, however, is his offensive abilities. He peaked in 2021 with an OPS+ of 114. Since then, Bader has yet to surpass an OPS+ of 85 in a complete season. His on-base percentage has simply not been good these last two years in New York, and he is walking at a career-low rate of 4.3% (bottom 6% of the league). His best offensive seasons came in St. Louis, so perhaps a return to the familiar confines of Busch Stadium would allow him to return to his old self.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. started his career off with the Toronto Blue Jays. He was traded this past offseason to the Arizona Diamondbacks in a deal that included Gabriel Moreno and Daulton Varsho. Gurriel was more of a secondary piece of the trade, as the Blue Jays needed a lefty bat who could play center, and the Diamondbacks needed a solid catcher to replace the fading Carson Kelly. However, Gurriel ended up providing some decent production for the playoff-bound Diamondbacks.

In his 6-year career, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has a career OPS+ of 118 and an OPS just shy of .800 at .791. Gurriel primarily plays left field but has also seen some time at first base, although those appearances have decreased over the years. Gurriel has also played up the middle in the infield, but he hasn't logged innings at shortstop or second base in quite a while. He would be the Cardinals' primary left fielder. Gurriel Jr. has also been a supreme hitter with runners in scoring position; his triple slash of .295/.341/.470 would immediately improve the Cardinals' woes in those situations from 2023.

Gurriel's defense is right about league average, as he tallied 1 OAA this year in left field. Should the Cardinals sign Gurriel, one of Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson, Lars Nootbaar, or Tyler O'Neill would have to play center. The infield mix would have to include Masyn Winn at shortstop and a combination of Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman at second. The front office would have to trade from its depth at this point, probably one of the outfielders. Winn's bat didn't play so well in his debut in the majors throughout September, but he has shown a penchant to adjust quickly to a level and begin to hit.

Gurriel's signing, since he is primarily a corner outfielder, complicates the roster and truly would create a logjam. However, his bat would be significantly better than Dylan Carlson's or Tyler O'Neill's despite the latter's former MVP showing in 2021. Should the Cardinals sign Lourdes Gurriel Jr., the team's defense would take a hit, but their offense would surely improve.

Cody Bellinger

Now for one of the biggest names this offseason. Cody Bellinger was once the darling of the league. He came onto the scene in 2017 and won the Rookie of the Year award that year. Bellinger then exploded in 2019 for the Dodgers, winning the MVP that year. He has 5 seasons with an OPS+ of 112 or greater, he has 4 seasons with an OPS of .814 or higher, and he often finds himself near the top of the home run leaderboard for outfielders.

The most interesting part about Bellinger, however, would be his 2021 and 2022 seasons. He was a far below-replacement-level player in those years on the offensive side of the ball. He battled injuries in both seasons and had a batting average of only .165 in 2021 and .210 in 2022. The entire league was floored by those two seasons, and his free-agency bidding was interesting last offseason. The Cubs took a flyer on him and signed him to a 1-year, $17.5 million deal with a mutual option for 2024.

Bellinger rewarded the Cubs handsomely by having a slash line of .307/.356/.525 in 2023 for an OPS+ of 133. He carried the Cubs offense this past year, and Bellinger will surely decline his end of the mutual option for 2024. Cody can play center field very well, has played in the corner outfield before, and he can also be featured at first base. His defensive flexibility would allow the Cardinals to trade from their depth, similar to the situation if they signed either Harrison Bader or Kevin Kiermaier. Additionally, Bellinger would be able to fill in at first for Paul Goldschmidt on his days off or the days when he is the designated hitter. Bellinger was also a very strong hitter with runners in scoring position with a .263/.362/.475 slash line.

Signing Bellinger would cost the team a lot of money. The 28-year-old outfielder will probably demand a multi-year contract nearly 8-10 years in length. He would also cost quite a bit of money, easily surpassing the $20 million AAV contract that Brandon Nimmo signed this past offseason with the Mets. If the front office wants to beef up its lineup offensively and defensively, Cody Bellinger would be the ideal candidate. They can then trade from their depth to get a front-end starter, and the Cardinals can sign another pitcher from the mid-tier list this offseason with any leftover money.