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3 truths and 3 myths for the Cardinals after the first month of the season
As we enter May, most teams are figuring out what is true about their team and what is false. The Cardinals have clear indicators as they now climb out of last place.
The St. Louis Cardinals had high expectations from fans, executives, local media, and even national media to bounce back in 2024 and be contenders for the NL Central. With the first month of play being officially behind us, the Cardinals want to keep that play behind them. The Cardinals are back to last place as they are questioning what went wrong for them to return to the new familiar territory. From what we know after a month of play, there are some expectations that came to fruition and there are some that fell flat on their faces. Here are three truths about the Cardinals this season and three myths that everyone misjudged them on.
Truths
1. Masyn Winn is the Cardinals future at shortstop
With all the noise from fans saying the Cardinals fail with prospect development and then we trade them away for them to succeed elsewhere, fans cannot say the same for Winn. Winn has arguably been the most valuable starting player for the Cardinals and easily the biggest impact player on the roster. He leads the team with a 1.3 WAR producing a slashline of .304/.380/.405/.786 (125 OPS+). He is a serviceable fielder with a .965 fielding percentage after 26 games played, but still has work to do given he has allowed 4 errors. But he can make up the difference with the rocket launcher arm.
2. Kyle Gibson is an innings eater
John Mozeliak stated many times that "pitching, pitching, pitching" was needed to fix the major issues with the roster, and he has done just that so far. Veteran pitcher Kyle Gibson has shown his value by pitching 6 innings or more in every start made in 2024. The result from this has been a 2-2 record with a 3.79 ERA over 38 IP. He is not dominating lineups with elite strikeout numbers, but he is limiting runners being scored which is all that matters. Gibson has only allowed one run per game in his last three starts. Let's hope this lasts all season long.
3. Ryan Helsley is elite
Fans will continue to pick apart the 2022 NL Wild Card Series meltdown from game 1. It was the year of destiny that ended in unceremonious fashion. But was it really because Ryan Helsley is not a good reliever? Some fans make it sound like that, but it is time to come to reality. Ryan Helsley is the best reliever in baseball. He leads all of MLB with 10 saves and carries a 1.69 ERA with a .938 WHIP and 19 SO over 16 IP. If you are not convinced yet by how dominate of a closer he truly is, look at his Baseball Savant page. Lots of red on the page, probably matching his Hells Bells entrance.
Myths
1. Alec Burleson is unlucky
We are on year two of Cardinals fans defending Alec Burleson saying he is an unlucky player. You can continue to look at his savant page which shows lots of red, but his hard-posted numbers continue to disappoint. His xBA is .313 which is 94th percentile, but his actual BA is .273. His xSLG is .509 ranking 87th percentile, but his actual SLG is .394. He is riding a league-average OPS of .718 and has only produced four extra-base hits. He is also a defensive liability without having a clear future on what position he can start in. A player with a 0.1 WAR after a month of play is not unlucky, he is just not a dynamic player.
2. Lars Nootbaar is an elite outfielder
Before fans get irate about reading this myth, let me state this: Lars Nootbaar is a good player. He has been a steady player in the lineup who can always be relied on due to his consistency. That is not an issue at all, as it provides certainty to the team and confidence with the lineup configuration. But the issue here is that we have seen the best of Lars Nootbaar. He has a high floor, but a short ceiling. Fans will salivate at savant data stating we are about to see a power surge from Noot along with his great defense.
But instead, you will be getting slightly above-average offense, reliable defense, and a great clubhouse personality. So far in 2024, he has not looked great which can be credited to starting later due to recovering from a rib injury. His OPS+ is 74 which is below league average and he has a 0.0 WAR which is not showing any results of production. But maybe this will turn around in May. Noot is a good player, but not an elite player.
3. Veteran leadership will turn the Cardinals around
Credit is given to Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson. They have looked great so far in 2024 and their performances have helped the Cardinals win ballgames that would've been lost causes in 2023. But are the Cardinals better because of their leadership? Or better because they are actually producing results that were lacking to do inadequate MLB players used in 2023? Other veteran leaders brought in for 2024 have been a waste of roster space.
Brandon Crawford somehow continues to get starts at shortstop and is taking innings where they should be given to Jose Fermin or honestly, let Masyn Winn start every game since he is option number one. Crawford is long overdue for a DFA. Matt Carpenter has been injured with a right oblique strain and hasn't contributed much even when he is playing. Now you can say these veteran guys are shaping the clubhouse culture which is leading to better performances for the rest of the team. But it isn't, as we are seeing poor performances from star players Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, Nolan Gorman has looked lost for most of the early season, and Jordan Walker is sent back down for a second time when he is supposed to be a major contributor to this team in 2024.
The Cardinals are still a last-place team, and they have roster spots being wasted by guys who should be out of the league.
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