3 trades the Cardinals could make for a Marlins' starting pitcher

Trevor Rogers

The lowest player on the totem pole from the Marlins is probably Trevor Rogers. He has the least amount of team control of the bunch, and his injury history should give the Cardinals pause. However, due to these facts, he would also cost St. Louis the least amount in return. Rogers has yet to pitch in more than 133 innings in his four years at the major league level, and he only pitched eighteen innings in 2023. Rogers is set to be a free agent after the 2026 season.

Trevor Rogers has a career 4.12 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 1.332 WHIP, and has struck out just over ten batters per nine innings; those numbers would be great for a mid-rotation starting pitcher. In 2021, he had a career year. Rogers placed second in National League Rookie of the Year and he was an All-Star. Rogers' 2.64 ERA, 2.55 FIP, and 1.150 WHIP were all stellar. He suffered a back injury in late July that kept him out for a month, but he still pitched 133 innings in just his sophomore season.

However, He had a rough 2022 season in which he pitched only 107 innings with a 5.47 ERA, 4.35 FIP, and he allowed 9.8 hits per nine innings. His K rate fell 6.3% between 2021 and 2022. 2023 was even more challenging for the left-handed pitcher. He faced a variety of injuries including a bicep strain and a lat strain. These two injuries forced him to pitch only eighteen innings last year in the majors. He gave up eight runs and struck out nineteen batters.

Given Rogers' ceiling, he still has some decent trade value. However, his extensive injury history should give the Cardinals pause. Conversely, this will also lower his price slightly. He is clearly a buy-low candidate with a high ceiling. Baseball-Reference projects him to pitch eighty innings next year with a 4.28 ERA, 9.3 strikeout-per-nine ratio, and a 1.313 WHIP.

St. Louis could probably snag Trevor Rogers for Dylan Carlson and a low-end pitching prospect. Carlson's injury history is similar to Rogers' and they will both reach free agency in 2027. The pitching prospect is a bit of a filler for the trade to entice the Marlins even more. Carlson can play center for the Marlins, thus allowing them to move Jazz Chisholm Jr. back to his initial position of shortstop.

Miami receives: OF Dylan Carlson and RHP Edwin Nunez

St. Louis Receives: LHP Trevor Rogers

Edward Cabrera

Of the three trade candidates, Edward Cabrera is the riskiest choice. He has five years of control remaining, he has a highly-rated changeup, and he strikes batters out at a well above-average clip. Cabrera has two downsides: command and injuries. Last year, Cabrera was in and out due to a shoulder injury and time spent in Triple-A Jacksonville to improve his walk rate.

Edward Cabrera has a career walk rate of 14%, nearly 6% higher than league average. Just last year Cabrera ranked in the bottom 1% of the league in walk rate -- 15.2%. Cabrera's changeup (36.3%), curveball (38%), and slider (30.6%) all have whiff rates greater than 30%. His fastball sits in the 94-96 MPH range and can hit 98 on occasion. He has some of the best pure stuff in the game.

Injuries have been the story of Cabrera's young career. He has pitched only 197.2 innings in three years, and he has not pitched greater than 100 innings in a single season. Between his walk rates and his injury history, Edward Cabrera is the definition of "high risk, high reward". It has been rumored that the Marlins will hold onto Cabrera until they are blown away by a trade.

Due to his five remaining years of team control, his ability to strike batters out at a high rate, and his high ceiling, it could take a high price to land the talented righty. Miami is in need of offensive firepower, so I could see St. Louis giving up one of Nolan Gorman, Ivan Herrera, or even Thomas Saggesse. These are some fan favorites, so it will hurt to see any one of them leave via trade. Gorman has some fears about his back injuries, so he may be a good trade piece for an oft-injured pitcher.

Miami receives: 2B/3B Nolan Gorman

St. Louis receives: RHP Edward Cabrera

Jesus Luzardo

In a recent poll I posted on Twitter/X, Cardinals fans chose Jesus Luzardo as their preferred pitching target, and I would have to agree with those fans.

Luzardo is the most consistent and most dominant starter for the Marlins after Sandy Alcantara's injury. Last year was Luzardo's breakout year. He pitched 178.2 innings with a 3.58 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 1.215 WHIP, and he had a 3.78 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Cabrera surpassed the 200-strikeout mark, and he maintained a modest walk rate of 7.4%. He would immediately slot in as the #1 or #2 pitcher for the Cardinals depending on how they view Sonny Gray.

Luzardo still has three more years of team control, and MLB Trade Rumors projects him to make $5.9 million through arbitration. Luzardo's recent success would increase his trade value, but he doesn't come with as much control as Edward Cabrera. Given Alcantara's Tommy John Surgery, Eury Perez's innings limit, Braxton Garrett's lack of experience, and the uncertainty between Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers, the Marlins may be apt to hold on to their most certain starting pitcher.

On the flip side, Luzardo would net quite the return for the Miami Marlins. They need a shortstop, and they could use a pitcher in addition to infield help. While the shortstop would ideally have some pop to him, especially given the on-base machine that is Luis Arraez, Miami is probably also asking for a player with strong defensive tendencies. They would like a pitcher with a healthy track record and a relatively high ceiling.

St. Louis could draw a player from a variety of locations to make this trade happen. They could swap Brendan Donovan, Tommy Edman, Masyn Winn, Victor Scott II, Matthew Liberatore, or Gordon Graceffo in this deal. The combination of players is key here. If St. Louis gives up a player with less team control, they'll have to include a higher-end pitcher. If they give up a position player with lots of team control, perhaps they could skate by with a starting pitching prospect with less certainty.

Trade 1:
Miami receives CF/SS Tommy Edman and RHP Gordon Graceffo
St. Louis receives LHP Jesus Luzardo

Trade 2:
Miami receives SS Masyn Winn and LHP Matthew Liberatore
St. Louis receives LHP Jesus Luzardo and UTIL Dane Myers