3 players the Cardinals should target with the 7th pick in the 2024 MLB Draft

The MLB draft is only two weeks away, and the Cardinals are set to make their highest draft selection since 1998. This year's draft class is being described as extremely top-heavy, with around ten great prospects, while the overall depth isn't the strongest. The Cardinals are in a great position to select an elite talent that will inevitably fall into their hands at pick #7.

Firstly, I'd like to throw out a handful of names I would not expect to be available:

No Chance

2B Travis Bazzana, Oregon State: Bazzana had an extraordinary season, slashing .407/.568/.911. Bazzana has one of the most well-rounded offensive skillsets in the draft class. He makes a ton of contact, refuses to chase, hits the ball hard consistently, and has an outstanding feel for hitting the barrel. To put the cherry on top, Bazzana won the 2023 Cape Cod League MVP, proving his ability to hit with wood bats.

OF/3B Charlie Condon, Georgia: Condon put up video game numbers in 2024, setting an NCAA BBCOR record with 37 home runs while slashing .433/.556/1.009. Condon's carrying tool is undoubtedly his thunderous power, but there's less swing-and-miss in his profile than you would expect, as he whiffed only 19.1% of the time this year. Condon's operation at the plate is also incredible. He has one of the sweetest, most compact swings I've ever seen from a right-handed draft prospect.

Doubtful

RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest: Burns has some of the loudest stuff in the entire draft class. Burns' arsenal is headlined by a cut-ride fastball that averages 97.8 mph (T100.9) and 20.3" of IVB. While Burns' fastball gets most of the spotlight, I believe his slider is his best offering. The pitch averages 87.5" with great depth (-1.2" IVB) and 8 inches of sweep. Burns throws from a high vertical release, so the pitch plays even better low in the zone with its steep vertical approach angle. Burns also throws a curveball and changeup, and although they had limited usage in college, both grade out well stuff-wise.

1B/LHP Jac Caglianone, Florida: Caglianone is one of the most gifted players in the entire draft class in terms of raw talent. At the dish, he has light-tower power with the ability to make a ton of contact despite chasing nearly 40% of the time. Over the past two seasons for Florida, Caglianone hit a combined 68 home runs. On the mound, he throws a mid-90s fastball with below-average ride and 15" of arm-side run. Caglianone's best pitch results-wise is a 79 mph changeup, which generated a 48.7% whiff rate this season. Caglianone also throws a slider, but the pitch is still a work in progress, sitting at 83 mph with subpar depth.

3. LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas

Hagen Smith was utterly dominant this year, posting a 2.04 ERA in 84 innings pitched for the University of Arkansas. Smith generated swings-and-misses at an exceptional rate and struck out a total of 161 batters on the season. Opponents batted just .144 against him in 2024.

Four-seam Fastball: Hagen Smith's primary pitch is a 95.5 mph fastball with 16.4 inches of IVB and 13 inches of arm-side run from a 5.6' vertical release height. Smith added close to 3 mph on his fastball from 2023 and got up to 100.3 mph. The pitch's movement profile in a vacuum is mediocre at best but plays up due to his low release and above-average velocity. Smith generated a 41.8% whiff rate on his four-seam fastball, ranking 2nd best in Division 1 College Baseball in 2024 (min. 500 pitches).

Slider: Smith's best offering is his 84 mph slider. The pitch has solid depth with -1.3 inches of IVB and sweep with 5 inches of glove-side movement. Smith also has a great feel for spinning the pitch. Much like his fastball, the pitch plays up due to his release. Smith stands on the first base side of the rubber, and with his lateral release, the HAA on the pitch is elite. He also commands the offering well, locating it away from lefties and inside to righties to optimize the HAA. Smith registered a hellacious 56.4% whiff rate on his slider this season.

Changeup: Smith's third pitch is an 88.3 mph split-change, which averages similar arm-side movement to his fastball with 8 fewer inches of ride. Smith lacks feel for the pitch at the moment, but I expect it to be a viable offering against righties once he gets more comfortable using it.

Smith is without question a top 2 pitching prospect in this year's draft class. He's a tier down from Chase Burns, but the Cardinals should still consider him if he's available at pick 7. There is some reliever risk with Smith due to his cross-fire delivery and lack of feel for a 3rd offering, but it's hard to argue with the body of work he produced for Arkansas this year.

2. OF Braden Montgomery, Texas A&M

Braden Montgomery is one of the most impressive power bats in this year's draft class. Montgomery is a switch-hitter who is equally explosive and twitchy from both sides of the plate. In 61 games this year for Texas A&M, Montgomery slashed .322/.454/.733 and crushed 27 home runs.

Power: Montgomery's most promising tool is, without a doubt, his power. It's not only plus raw power from both sides of the plate, but he consistently gets to it in games. Montgomery was one of just four hitters in Division College baseball with a 90th percentile exit velocity greater than 110 mph, a hard hit rate greater than 65%, and a barrel rate greater than 35%. Montgomery's blend of raw and game power is some of the best in the entire class, and his ability to display the power from both sides of the plate is extraordinary.

Hit: Montgomery's hit tool is a divisive topic among evaluators, but I believe he'll hit enough for the power to play. His contact rate pretty easily ranks worst among the top grouping of collegiate players in the class. This year, Montgomery made contact 85% of the time in the strike zone, which is acceptable, but that number dropped to 49% outside the strike zone. Most of the whiff was against offspeed and breaking pitches. Montgomery will certainly have to improve his pitch recognition in pro ball, where the quality and command of offspeed and breaking pitches are far better. Montgomery does a solid job of avoiding mishits when he makes contact, so he has the tools to overperform his mediocre at best contact rate.

Arm/Run/Defense:  Montgomery started his collegiate career as a two-way player, sitting mid-90s with his fastball. His arm strength is an easy double-plus scouting grade. Montgomery is a close-to-average runner and fits a corner outfield profile defensively. He primarily played right field across his collegiate career, and that's where he fits the best due to his outstanding arm strength.  

Braden Montgomery's batted ball data is on par with Charlie Condon for the best in the entire draft class. There are some questions about his contact ability, specifically in terms of recognizing and hitting offspeed and breaking pitches. Nonetheless, Montgomery improved his plate discipline this year, and I believe in his ability to adjust his approach when necessary.