3 players the Cardinals should target with the 7th pick in the 2024 MLB Draft

The MLB draft is only two weeks away, and the Cardinals are set to make their highest draft selection since 1998. This year's draft class is being described as extremely top-heavy, with around ten great prospects, while the overall depth isn't the strongest. The Cardinals are in a great position to select an elite talent that will inevitably fall into their hands at pick #7.

Firstly, I'd like to throw out a handful of names I would not expect to be available:

No Chance

2B Travis Bazzana, Oregon State: Bazzana had an extraordinary season, slashing .407/.568/.911. Bazzana has one of the most well-rounded offensive skillsets in the draft class. He makes a ton of contact, refuses to chase, hits the ball hard consistently, and has an outstanding feel for hitting the barrel. To put the cherry on top, Bazzana won the 2023 Cape Cod League MVP, proving his ability to hit with wood bats.

OF/3B Charlie Condon, Georgia: Condon put up video game numbers in 2024, setting an NCAA BBCOR record with 37 home runs while slashing .433/.556/1.009. Condon's carrying tool is undoubtedly his thunderous power, but there's less swing-and-miss in his profile than you would expect, as he whiffed only 19.1% of the time this year. Condon's operation at the plate is also incredible. He has one of the sweetest, most compact swings I've ever seen from a right-handed draft prospect.

Doubtful

RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest: Burns has some of the loudest stuff in the entire draft class. Burns' arsenal is headlined by a cut-ride fastball that averages 97.8 mph (T100.9) and 20.3" of IVB. While Burns' fastball gets most of the spotlight, I believe his slider is his best offering. The pitch averages 87.5" with great depth (-1.2" IVB) and 8 inches of sweep. Burns throws from a high vertical release, so the pitch plays even better low in the zone with its steep vertical approach angle. Burns also throws a curveball and changeup, and although they had limited usage in college, both grade out well stuff-wise.

1B/LHP Jac Caglianone, Florida: Caglianone is one of the most gifted players in the entire draft class in terms of raw talent. At the dish, he has light-tower power with the ability to make a ton of contact despite chasing nearly 40% of the time. Over the past two seasons for Florida, Caglianone hit a combined 68 home runs. On the mound, he throws a mid-90s fastball with below-average ride and 15" of arm-side run. Caglianone's best pitch results-wise is a 79 mph changeup, which generated a 48.7% whiff rate this season. Caglianone also throws a slider, but the pitch is still a work in progress, sitting at 83 mph with subpar depth.

3. LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas

Hagen Smith was utterly dominant this year, posting a 2.04 ERA in 84 innings pitched for the University of Arkansas. Smith generated swings-and-misses at an exceptional rate and struck out a total of 161 batters on the season. Opponents batted just .144 against him in 2024.

Four-seam Fastball: Hagen Smith's primary pitch is a 95.5 mph fastball with 16.4 inches of IVB and 13 inches of arm-side run from a 5.6' vertical release height. Smith added close to 3 mph on his fastball from 2023 and got up to 100.3 mph. The pitch's movement profile in a vacuum is mediocre at best but plays up due to his low release and above-average velocity. Smith generated a 41.8% whiff rate on his four-seam fastball, ranking 2nd best in Division 1 College Baseball in 2024 (min. 500 pitches).

Slider: Smith's best offering is his 84 mph slider. The pitch has solid depth with -1.3 inches of IVB and sweep with 5 inches of glove-side movement. Smith also has a great feel for spinning the pitch. Much like his fastball, the pitch plays up due to his release. Smith stands on the first base side of the rubber, and with his lateral release, the HAA on the pitch is elite. He also commands the offering well, locating it away from lefties and inside to righties to optimize the HAA. Smith registered a hellacious 56.4% whiff rate on his slider this season.

Changeup: Smith's third pitch is an 88.3 mph split-change, which averages similar arm-side movement to his fastball with 8 fewer inches of ride. Smith lacks feel for the pitch at the moment, but I expect it to be a viable offering against righties once he gets more comfortable using it.

Smith is without question a top 2 pitching prospect in this year's draft class. He's a tier down from Chase Burns, but the Cardinals should still consider him if he's available at pick 7. There is some reliever risk with Smith due to his cross-fire delivery and lack of feel for a 3rd offering, but it's hard to argue with the body of work he produced for Arkansas this year.

1. SS JJ Wetherholt, West Virginia

JJ Wetherholt is a savvy left-handed hitter with exceptional contact and plate discipline skills. In 36 games this season for the West Virginia Mountaineers, he slashed .331/.472/.589. Wetherholt missed seven weeks early in the season due to a hamstring injury, which is the sole reason for his draft stock declining and even being a possibility at pick 7.

I briefly discussed consensus top 2 draft prospect Travis Bazzana earlier in the article, mentioning how he "has one of the most well-rounded offensive skillsets in the draft class". Wetherholt is right there with him, and it's wild how close these two are in terms of batted ball data, contact rate, and plate discipline.

SS JJ Wetherholt
AvgEV: 95.4 mph
90thEV: 108.2 mph
HardHit%: 57.1%
Barrel%: 31.2%
Contact%: 84.7%
Chase%: 14.1%
Z-Swing% 69.0%

2B Travis Bazzana
AvgEV: 95.9 mph
90thEV: 108.7 mph
HardHit%: 68.5%
Barrel%: 41.5%
Contact%: 85.1%
Chase%: 14.0%
Z-Swing%: 61.0%

Bazzana projects to hit for more power than Wetherholt due to hitting the barrel more consistently and pulling his aerial contact more often. Still, the offensive profiles are extremely similar, and Wetherholt handled his own at a more premium defensive position.

Hit: Wetherholt has an elite hit tool, making contact 88.5% of the time in the zone and 85.1% overall. Over the past two seasons for West Virginia, he struck out 39 times and drew 56 walks in 432 plate appearances. Wetherholt rarely expands the zone, chasing only 14.1% of the time while maintaining a decent zone swing rate. He genuinely has outstanding plate discipline skills rather than just benefiting from a passive approach at the plate. When Wetherholt makes contact, he possesses a sweet left-handed swing that generates tons of line drives to all fields.

Power: Wetherholt's power tool is certainly not his calling card; however, he still has above-average raw power. His 90th percentile exit velocity of 108.1 mph is in great territory. Wetherholt doesn't barrel or pull the ball enough to consistently reach his raw power, but the exit velocities are still encouraging. It's average game power right now, with the potential to be above average if he unlocks more pull-side power.

Defense/Arm/Run: For the third year in a row, Wetherholt played a different primary position. In 2022, he played most games at 3B; in 2023, he primarily played 2B; this year, he served as West Virginia's starting shortstop. Wetherholt is an absolute gamer no matter where he plays on the diamond. He held his own this year at shortstop despite a below-average throwing arm. He projects best at second base, but if he can adequately handle shortstop in pro ball, there's more value there. Wetherholt has the athleticism to steal 30+ bases at the next level, but I wonder how much the hamstring injury impacted his baserunning aggressiveness this year. Wetherholt stole just 6 bases last year following a 2023 season where he stole 36.

Entering the season, JJ Wetherholt was considered the top player on most draft boards. There comes some risk with a player who had two hamstring issues in the past year. Soft tissue injuries are more prone to re-aggravation, so I can understand why a team would be skeptical of drafting Wetherholt. Regardless, it would be a home run move if the Cardinals can get a talent like Wetherholt at pick 7.