3 extensions the Cardinals should have made instead of Tommy Edman's
The Tommy Edman contract extension has been marred slightly by his uncertain future in 2024. Should the Cardinals have inked someone else long-term?
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The St. Louis Cardinals gave Tommy Edman an extension this past offseason, and soon after his status for 2024 became murky. The extension bought out his final year of arbitration in 2024 and his first year of free agency next year. It was a two-year, $16.5 million deal.
John Mozeliak has a pretty strong track record when it comes to player extensions, particularly ones to arbitration-eligible players. Given the rocky start to Edman's 2024 season, this particular contract may not end up well for the Cardinals. The uncertainty surrounding Edman's availability this year means there's a chance he only plays for a year and a half of his two-year deal.
This opens up the opportunity to reflect on other players who could (should?) have received extensions instead of the super-utility player and resumed starting center fielder. With several young players on the roster, the opportunities are vast.
These 3 St. Louis Cardinals should have been given a contract extension instead of Tommy Edman.
Ryan Helsley
A few months back, I mentioned Helsley as a strong candidate for a contract extension. Reliable relievers are tough to find in today's game, and the volatility of the position paired with rising prices on oft-injured pitchers should make a team wary of buying free-agent veterans. Ryan Helsley has been strong in the closer role for the Cardinals since 2022.
The former All-Star has accumulated 38 saves for his career--3 already in 2024. His 2023 season was limited due to a forearm injury, but he was still solid with a 2.45 ERA and 52 strikeouts in only 36.2 innings. Oli Marmol recently stated that Helsley would be used in a traditional closer role for the 2024 season to maintain his mental fortitude and health
Other pitching news: Saw this trend developing over the last few days, but Oli Marmol made it official today.
— Katie Woo (@katiejwoo) April 7, 2024
Contrary to the last two seasons, the Cardinals plan to use Ryan Helsley as a traditional closer this year. Expect to see him regularly in the ninth. #STLCards
He will turn 30 in July, and he signed a $3.8 million contract via arbitration this winter. Helsley will become a free agent after the 2025 season. If the Cardinals can sign him to a long-term contract, they will have him for his age-30 through his age-32 seasons, perhaps the prime of a reliever's career.
In February, I posited a 4-year, $18 million extension for Helsley; that was before arbitration, however. I think a 3-year deal worth around $16 million would be enticing to the right-handed flamethrower. This buys out his final year of arbitration and his first two years of free agency. It is also a fairly team-friendly deal when thinking about the free-agent contracts around $8 million for comparable pitchers.
Brendan Donovan
Tommy Edman and Brendan Donovan are similar players, by and large. While Edman provides more defensive versatility and speed, Donovan has shown more offensive firepower and leadership capabilities. Both utility players are essential to the team's success both now and in the future.
Donovan placed third in Rookie of the Year voting in 2022, and he was the first-ever recipient of the Utility Gold Glove Award for the National League that year. He is primarily known for his ability to get on base offensively, but his power stroke has improved year after year in the majors. He is a prototypical modern leadoff hitter: high on-base percentage with a penchant for power.
In addition to his offensive skillset, Donovan has shown an ability to play first base, right field, left field, third base, second base, and even shortstop a time or two. While he isn't as supreme of a defender as Tommy Edman, the fact that he can fill in at multiple positions shows his value to this team.
Brendan Donovan had an internal brace put in his right elbow last August to repair a partially torn UCL. He was limited all spring, but he has since been let loose to start the season, and he has disappointed. The 27-year-old has a .313/.450/.531 for a 170 OPS+ after only 10 games. He has scored 7 times, walked 4 times, struck out 7 times, and has 6 RBIs so far. He has been an ideal leadoff hitter for a Cards' team that is off to a much better start than last year.
Donovan isn't a free agent until 2028, and his arbitration years start next offseason. The Cardinals could sign him to a fairly lengthy extension. Locking up Brendan Donovan for 5 years would have been a much better investment than Tommy Edman. A 5-year, $40-$50 million contract seems reasonable at this point, and I don't think many Cardinal fans would scoff at that price and length.
Jordan Walker
It's not typical of the Cardinals to hand out extensions for greater than 5 years to an arbitration-eligible player. Jordan Walker would command one well in excess of that term. His age (21), prospect pedigree (former #3 in all of baseball), and team control remaining (5 years) would all lend him to receiving an extension around 8 years in length.
While Walker is off to a rough start in his sophomore season, his offensive statistics last year were strong, particularly for a rookie. He finished the season with a .276/.342/.445 slash line, good for a 114 OPS+. Walker's 37 extra-base hits in 117 games are reasonable. The hope was that Walker would be able to increase his 8% walk rate and decrease his 22.4% K rate, though both rates were near the 50th percentile last season.
Walker's primary downfall is on the defensive side of the ball. A former third baseman, Walker's routes and range were abysmal last year. He finished the year with -14 Outs Above Average (OAA) and -16 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Walker focused heavily on his defensive abilities this past offseason while working with Willie McGee. He stayed in Florida all winter to get some reps in right field under his belt.
Here are the Statcast metrics on the diving catch made by #STLCards 6-foot-6 RF Jordan Walker off the bat of #Padres rookie Jackson Merrill:
— John Denton (@JohnDenton555) April 2, 2024
Exit velocity: 96 mph
Distance covered: 73 feet
Baseball hang time: 4.2 sec
Walker sprint speed: 26.7 FT/SEC
Catch probability: 35% pic.twitter.com/dVggxvcYny
Plenty of other young and talented prospects have received extensions in recent history. The Atlanta Braves gave Michael Harris II one in 2022, the Arizona Diamondbacks extended Corbin Carroll in 2023, and Bobby Witt Jr. was given a megadeal by the Kansas City Royals. While Walker won't reach the heights of Witt or Carroll, he's still worthy of a multi-year agreement.
Jordan Walker is off to a rough start this year, but given defensive improvements and a return to barreling the ball like he did last year, we could be in store for a great season from the right fielder. Walker would likely command a 7 or 8-year contract worth about $80 million. This is a fair deal given his projected ceiling and abilities.
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