3 deals we're glad the Cardinals didn't make (and 3 we wish they had)

The Cardinals have been linked to stars many times over the past decade, whether at the deadline or during the off-season. Aside from 2023, they're almost always in contention at the trade deadline, and can thus be classified as buyers. They're generally looking for talent from less competitive teams to bolster their odds of making it to October, and perhaps of winning a World Series.

We've seen the Cardinals make a number of excellent acquisitions at the deadline. In recent years, they've gone out and acquired starters such as Jose Quintana, Jordan Montgomery, Jon Lester, and others. Upon closer examination, a clear pattern emerges. The Cardinals like to target low-cost (and therefore low-risk) players at the trade deadline. These low-risk deals have, for the most part, worked out well for the Cardinals.

Take J.A. Happ, for example. The Cardinals traded Evan Sisk and John Gant to the Twins for J.A. Happ and cash considerations in 2021. Gant was a serviceable reliever who was enduring a rough final year of club control. Sisk, meanwhile, was a minor league reliever, who at the age of 24, was still pitching with Peoria, the Cardinals A+ affiliate. The cost was minimal. J.A. Happ, for his part, was exactly what the Cardinals needed him to be. He pitched to a 4.00 ERA over 11 starts and 54 innings. He was a perfectly league-average pitcher across this stretch, and his pitch-to-contact profile played well with what was an excellent defensive infield. The team won in seven of his eleven starts.

Even if Happ had been awful, the Cardinals likely wouldn't have spent too much time regretting the deal. Gant finished 2021 poorly and is now pitching in Japan. Sisk has spent the 2023 season with Kansas City's AAA affiliate. The Happ trade is just one example of a low-profile deal that has helped the Cardinals. At times, the Cardinals have been linked to higher-profile players with much larger asking prices.

Often, these higher-profile deals come with significantly more risk. Today, we'll be discussing several of these potential deals that we're glad the Cardinals didn't make. Afterward, we'll go through a few deals we wish the Cardinals had pulled the trigger on.

We are glad they did not trade for Frankie Montas

In the middle of the 2022 season, it became obvious that the Cardinals needed to bolster their rotation. They were hanging around at the top of the Central but were having some trouble truly separating from the pack. Moreover, many feared that the rotation lacked depth. Jack Flaherty and Steven Matz were also unavailable, leaving the team on the search for serviceable starters to help replace some of the lost production. They eventually settled on Jose Quintana and Jordan Montgomery, two low-cost players.

Prior to making the aforementioned deals, they had been heavily linked to Oakland's Frankie Montas. Montas had been excellent with Oakland that season but was widely known to be dealing with some sort of shoulder injury. Some outlets predicted he'd be a Cardinal by the time the deadline passed, but ultimately it was the Yankees that offered Oakland the best return. New York also received right-handed reliever, Lou Trivino.

In exchange for Montas and Trivino, the Yankees sent over LHP Ken Waldichuk, RHP Luis Medina, LHP JP Sears, and 2B Cooper Bowman. Waldichuk, a top 100 prospect in baseball, ranked 5th on the Yankees' top 30 prospect list per MLB Pipeline. The others ranked 10th, 20th and 21st, respectively. For the Cardinals, this would look like Cooper Hjerpe, Michael McGreevy, Pete Hansen, and Jonathan Mejia.

That's a steep price to pay for one and a half years of control, even if that starter has ace potential. Unfortunately, Montas has been terrible as a Yankee. In just eight starts after the deadline in 2022, he pitched to an ERA of 6.35, averaging less than five innings per start. Montas then hit the shelf with the aforementioned shoulder issue and has yet to take the mound in 2023. Trivino, for what it's worth, was outstanding for the Yankees in 2022, but has also been unable to play for the entirety of 2023, and is currently on the 60-day IL.

This deal would have crippled the Cardinals and likely would have further thinned their already limited pitching depth. It also may have prevented them from acquiring Montgomery and Quintana. Thankfully, the Cardinals stuck to their low-cost options, a choice that benefited the organization in a major way.

We are glad they did not trade for Giancarlo Stanton

Giancarlo Stanton spent eight seasons with the Marlins and blossomed into one of the best players in the game. After signing a massive extension with Miami, he proved his value by winning the 2017 NL MVP award. Stanton led all of baseball in 2017 with 59 home runs. Stanton was the most powerful star in baseball.

During the 2017 season, Jeffrey Loria sold the Marlins. Now under new leadership, Miami was looking to unload large contracts. Stanton's value had never been higher, so they moved him that winter, following an exciting trade saga that saw at least five teams connected to the slugger. It was the Cardinals who first had a deal in place. Fans were furious to learn that Stanton had activated his no-trade clause, nullifying St. Louis' offer.

He accepted a later trade to the New York Yankees, who sent back an uninspiring package of players, including Starlin Castro, Jorge Guzman, and Jose Devers. The limited prospect capital was offset by New York's willingness to take on the massive commitment, as they agreed to pay about $265MM of the $295MM Stanton was owed.

Fast forward to 2023, and it's clear that the Cardinals dodged a bullet. The dynamic pairing of Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge just doesn't play often enough, and it has weighed heavily on the 2023 Yankees. At least when Judge is healthy, he's one of baseball's best players. The same can no longer be said of Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton has not, in any capacity, been worth what he's been paid. Sure, he's hit some dingers in New York, but he's had trouble staying on the field, and his strikeout woes have worsened. Stanton is simply not a valuable player right now, and he costs his organization over $30MM every year!

To complete a Stanton deal, the Cardinals would have paid dearly, either in prospects or in money. Imagine adding $30MM to the current payroll! They'd have much more trouble acquiring pitching this off-season. On the flip side, even if Miami had taken on significant money, which they reportedly did not want to do, the Cardinals would probably be without some of their talent which has now entered its prime.

Additionally, it may have prevented the Cardinals from acquiring Paul Goldschmidt, as young pieces like Weaver and Kelly could have been included in the Stanton deal. It's safe to say that the Cardinals are better off without Stanton in St. Louis.

We are glad they did not trade for Juan Soto

This is the most controversial take on this list, but when we really consider this deal, I think it becomes clear that the Cardinals are better off having not acquired Soto. Yes, Soto is a generational talent. Yes, he is one of the best players in baseball. Yes, he would improve the current roster. Yes, there were plenty of reasons to advocate for this trade at the time. But, would Soto be enough to get this current team over the hump and into contention?

While it would be fun to watch Soto launch balls out of Busch Stadium, I contend that the answer is a resounding no! Juan Soto could not improve the Cardinals by 15 games, which is what it would require to make the postseason. Soto would be playing right field, and that's Jordan Walker's spot. Walker would have a more difficult time getting into the lineup with Soto here, except Walker wouldn't be in St. Louis! He'd have been included in the package to obtain Soto.

That package also would have required Tink Hence, Dylan Carlson, and potentially Brendan Donovan, Ivan Herrera, or Masyn Winn. It may also require another less advanced piece such as Ian Bedell or Cooper Hjerpe. This deal would have drained an already thinned-out farm system. It would have become incredibly different for the Cardinals to continue producing in-house talent.

Without Tink Hence or Cooper Hjerpe, the pitching problem feels significantly more overwhelming, as both have the potential to turn into legitimate front-of-the-rotation starters. There's another problem to consider too. Perhaps having Soto would have forced the Cardinals to go all-in in 2023. This would have meant holding on to Flaherty, Montgomery, and Hicks. In this scenario, they would be without much of their newly acquired pitching, including Tekoah Roby, Drew Rom, Adam Kloffenstein, and Zack Showalter. This further compounds the issues facing the club!

I haven't even mentioned how expensive Soto is! He's late in arbitration, meaning he likely costs teams upwards of $25-30MM. Oh, and the Padres have just one more year of control remaining. Then, Soto hits free agency, and keeping him is going to be incredibly expensive. By reaching the bigs at such a young age, Soto has guaranteed that he will hit free agency with lots of his prime remaining, thus he will be even more expensive than superstars usually are.

All things considered, passing on Soto was a great move.

We wish they would have traded for Logan Gilbert

The Cardinals, according to some reports, entered serious trade talks with the Seattle Mariners in an effort to acquire some of their young starters. While Kirby was presumably not available, reports suggest that the Mariners at least briefly entertained the idea of trading Gilbert. The downside would have been the return, as the Mariners likely would have requested Nolan Gorman in return. While this price is steep, it may be necessary for the Cardinals to acquire true ace-caliber talent.

The hesitance to part with Gorman is understandable. He's likely to hit 40+ homers someday, he has prodigious power that's difficult to develop. He's also developed his glove and may become a plus defender in the near future. At the same time, not acquiring Gilbert leaves the Cardinals in need of three pitchers entering the off-season.

We wish they would have traded for Zack Wheeler

Wheeler most recently reminded Cardinals fans of his greatness in the 2022 playoffs as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies. Before joining Philadelphia, Wheeler spent significant time with the Mets. His time there ended after the 2019 season, and he signed a five-year $118MM contract with the Phillies that off-season. At the 2019 trade deadline, Wheeler was supposedly up for grabs, as the Mets had fallen out of contention and wanted to get something back for the impending free agent. Reports note that the Cardinals and Mets had serious discussions, with the Mets asking for Harrison Bader in return.

Unfortunately, the two clubs were unable to get a deal done, as the Cardinals valued Bader, and were unwilling to trade him for a rental who may depart in just two months. After acquiring Wheeler, it would have been critical to extend him, perhaps with a contract resembling the one Philadelphia handed him. As a Phillie, Wheeler has started 96 games, pitching over 600 innings with a 3.04 ERA. He has been one of the best pitchers in the National League, while also remaining healthy. Wheeler could have been a long-term option for the Cardinals, and his presence would certainly have helped them in 2023.