3 ways the Cardinals and Yankees make a Dylan Carlson trade

Cardinals and Yankees trade option 1

Cardinals Receive: RHP Clayton Beeter, RHP Clarke Schmidt

Yankees Receive: OF Dylan Carlson, RHP Chris Stratton

In this first scenario, the Cardinals package Carlson and Stratton to acquire some of the Yankees' young arms. Stratton's inclusion in this deal is simple: he has been an effective reliever in 2023 and contending teams are always seeking to fortify their bullpens at the deadline. Schmidt is not a new name to many Cardinals fans, as his name has been kicked around previously.

Clarke Schmidt, in his first season as a full-time starter at the major league level, has been roughly league average. He's striking out almost one batter per inning and has maintained a decently low walk rate. His 4.33 ERA is decent, but his high spin rates suggest that improvement is possible. Even a slight increase in strikeout rate would make him an excellent fourth starter. Most evaluators view this as his ceiling, so while he would not fix the Cardinals' front-end pitching problems, he would solidify the back end of the rotation.

In this scenario, the Cardinals would also receive right-hander, Clayton Beeter. Beeter, the Yankees' 12th ranked prospect, is having a fabulous year split between AA and AAA. He's pitched to a 2.36 ERA in 80 innings. Perhaps what stands out most about Beeter is his strong strikeout rate of 10.8 batters per nine innings pitched. He's also been linked to the Cardinals on multiple occasions. The only true drawback in his profile is his high walk rate. He has run high walk rates at just about every stop throughout his career, so this is nothing new. Even with these high walk rates, however, Beeter profiles as a strong middle-rotation pitcher. Improved control would raise his ceiling even further.

Both the Cardinals and Yankees may have hesitancy when reviewing this trade. This deal, after all, does not solve the Cardinals' biggest problem: their lack of an ace. Additionally, Beeter may not be ready for the big leagues by Opening Day in 2024. He could instead be a midseason call-up, and his questionable control will certainly cause the Cardinals' personnel to pause. They may not be willing to part with such a talented outfielder for pitchers with lower ceilings. Meanwhile, the Yankees may not value Carlson the same way the Cardinals do. His questionable power tool may force the Yankees to consider keeping their valuable young pitching.

Cardinals and Yankees trade option 2

Cardinals Receive: RHP Drew Thorpe, RHP Sean Boyle

Yankees Receive: OF Dylan Carlson

This option certainly resembles the last one. Again, the Yankees would receive Dylan Carlson in exchange for two young pitchers. Instead of two solid options who likely profile as middling starters, this trade gives the Cardinals the chance to acquire a pitcher with a higher ceiling.

Thorpe is ranked as the Yankees' top pitching prospect, according to MLB Pipeline. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, Thorpe is currently pitching in A+. He is likely two seasons away from the majors, considering Thorpe was selected in the second round of last year's draft, Though he has been impressive this season, he will not help the Cardinals in 2024. This being said, he has an impressive ceiling and could someday pitch at or near the front of an MLB rotation.

The Yankees could augment their package with other, less exciting pieces. One example would be Sean Boyle. Boyle is currently ranked 27th among the Yankees' prospects. He has struggled this year in AAA, but pitched well there last year. Throughout his minor league career, Boyle has exhibited excellent control and solid, albeit unspectacular, strikeout rates. He profiles as a backend starter at best. His effective sweeping slider could also make him a strong reliever. Boyle could compete for a rotation spot in 2024, but does not offer the same upside as many other options. Additionally, at nearly 27 years of age, Boyle lacks projectability, something that could cause hesitancy among Cardinals executives.

Would the Cardinals deal Carlson for assets that may not help them compete in 2024? This is the most important question to consider when reviewing this option. Additionally, how tightly do the Yankees hold on to Thorpe. Again, there is reason for both sides to consider standing pat in this scenario.

Cardinals and Yankees trade option 3

Cardinals Receive: RHP Clayton Beeter, RHP Nestor Cortes, 3B Josh Donaldson

Yankees Receive: OF Dylan Carlson, RHP Jack Flaherty

Of the options considered thus far, this is by far the most interesting. It is also the least likely to come to fruition.

The Cardinals could receive an established big league starter with multiple years of control left in Cortes, who stumbled out of the gate in 2023 and never found his groove. He's been banged up, and when healthy has struggled to the tune of a 5.16 ERA this season. However, this comes on the heels of two effective seasons in which Cortes was significantly better than the league average.

Cortes has been bad enough that the Yankees may be willing to sell lower on him, and the deal could be further sweetened if the Cardinals agreed to take on the Josh Donaldson contract. Luckily for the Cardinals, Donaldson reaches free agency at the end of this season, meaning the money would only hurt them in the near future. Moreover, moving Donaldson would free the Yankees to look for other 3B help, which would significantly bolster their lineup.

Donaldson would likely be DFA'd by the Cardinals, though they may find a place for him by trading another of their infielders, such as Tommy Edman or Paul DeJong. Though undesirable, taking on his contract makes the Yankees significantly more likely to move an established starter like Cortes. Adding Flaherty to the package would boost the Yankees rotation for a potential playoff run and could encourage them to include a prospect like the aforementioned Beeter. Flaherty has been significantly better than Cortes in 2023 and would thus serve as an upgrade for the rest of 2023.

One more reason this trade could happen is the unusually high premium assets have fetched at the deadline this year. While discussing the Giolito deal, Benjamin Hochman noted that Flaherty could potentially fetch Beeter on his own.

Like the first two, there are pros and cons for both teams in these deals. The Yankees could clear room for impact talent in the upper minors and also offload a significant amount of money while bringing in a controllable outfielder. The Cardinals would receive a pitcher who certainly has not pitched up to his potential in 2023, but banking on a resurgence is always a risky proposition. Whether the Cardinals and Yankees link up this week remains to be seen, but there are certainly plenty of ways to make it happen.