3 concerning Cardinals stats to monitor, and 2 that should encourage fans

The St. Louis Cardinals have had their fair share of highs and lows this year, with their recent run of form being a colder one. While the Cardinals are nowhere near the depths of despair they were earlier this year, they need to get back to consistently winning series in order to keep pace in the NL Wild Card standings and find a way to overtake the teams ahead of them.

In order to do so, the Cardinals need some top-end performances from different players or units on this club, and they cannot afford for the team to regress in other areas. As I look at this current Cardinals team, there are actually three stats that I see that are very concerning for their playoff chances and need to be corrected if they are going to make a run.

On the bright side though, I do see two numbers that give me hope for this club as they push for a return to the playoffs. If these two things can be sustained, and the concerns can subside, the Cardinals may be in really good shape.

Here are three stats that concern me regarding the Cardinals and two stats that I find encouraging

Concerning: 4.85

That is the Cardinals' bullpen ERA since the All-Star Break. 4.85.

I knew the Cardinals' bullpen had been struggling since the break, but man, that number is a lot worse than it even felt. Now, to be fair, no reliever has thrown more than eight innings since the break, so it's some of that number could improve rather quickly with a few quality outings. Andrew Kittredge has yet to allow an earned run since the break, and JoJo Romero has looked like his old self.

Still, it is fair to be concerned about the club's bullpen right now. Their ability to hold leads was a major reason why St. Louis was able to claw its way back to postseason contention this summer, and if the bullpen can't be relied on like it was in the first half, it is unlikely that St. Louis can keep pace with the rest of the National League Wild Card picture.

If the offense could ever look like we expected it to going into the year, this would be far less concerning. But until that becomes a reality, the Cardinals need their bullpen to step it up and fast.

Concerning: 37.3%

If the season ended today, Nolan Gorman would break Chris Davis' infamous single-season strikeout percentage "record" by posting a 37.3% strikeout rate during the 2024 season. Sure, Miguel Sano and Evan White posted K% over 40% in 2020, but that was a shortened season.

Gorman has been bad this year. There is no sugarcoating it. Much of his production is inflated by a couple of short but extremely productive stretches of baseball. But overall on the season, Gorman has been unreliable at the plate, constantly striking out and he's even lost his ability to draw walks at a high rate in the process.

I really like Gorman. I'm not giving up on him as a slugger in this league. I still think he's a guy who should consistently hit over 30 home runs a year and could even get to 40 bombs someday in a single season. He's a valuable member of the Cardinals moving forward, and while he's not untouchable, I'm not in a rush to move on from him if I am the Cardinals.

Gorman's streakiness can be frustrating, but as I wrote about earlier this year, he tends to have more prolonged hot streaks than he does extended cold streaks. But in 2024, I wouldn't even say he's been streaky at all, he's just been in one big long slump that he has only been able to shake for a few days at a time at most.

Personally, I think Gorman could use a trip to Memphis to reset here soon, especially with Walker seemingly ready to come up and produce for the Cardinals. The Cardinals need another productive right-handed bat on this roster, and Walker could be that guy. The Cardinals are not DFAing Brandon Crawford or Matt Carpenter, so Gorman really seems to be the only guy who makes sense to send to Memphis for now. The Cardinals could easily call him back up to St. Louis when September call-ups come in a few weeks, so I don't imagine it being a long stint if he were to go down to Memphis.

Encouraging: 2.57

After a really tough stretch since late May, Sonny Gray has been back to his normal self in his last two starts against the Cubs and Rays, giving him a 2.57 ERA between those two starts.

While small sample sizes are not great measuring sticks, Gray is someone I have an easier time buying back into with just a few great performances because of the kind of pitcher he was earlier this year, the Cy Young candidate he was in 2023, and frankly, how good he's been his entire career.

On the season, Gray's FIP is just 3.01 compared to his 3.65 ERA, and outside of a few bad starts, I'd say he easily feels like a pitcher who should have a 3.01 ERA on the year. Gray is striking out over 10 batters per nine innings this year, and while he'll need a strong finish to the season to truly put up "ace" numbers, I feel confident with him going toe to toe with any pitcher in baseball right now.

The biggest improvement in his game seems to be the effectiveness his sweeper is having on opposing hitters. Gray's sweeper is his best pitch, and while it was good during his "bad stretch", it was not elite like it normally is. In June and July, Gray was getting a whiff on his sweeper 37.8% of the time, allowing a .212 xBA and .390 xSLG. From his first start in April through the end of May and now his most recent starts in August, Gray had a whiff percentage north of 40% and an xBA south of .135.

Gray has had a few blow-up starts this year, so I understand why there are some fans that have been left wanting more from the Cardinals' free-agent acquisition. He'll have a chance to prove he's "back" tonight if he puts up a third straight great start, this time against the Cincinnati Reds. The Cardinals need some players to step up from here on out who consistently turn in top-end performances if they want to make the postseason, and Gray is someone I am betting will do that.

While Erick Fedde has had one good start and one not-so-good start with the Cardinals thus far, the club could receive a huge boost down the stretch if both Gray and Fedde consistently pitch at a high level. For the majority of the season, the Cardinals have had one starter pitching well while the others are average at best, and that's just not a great formula for victory when the offense has been so dissapointing. It all starts with Gray in the rotation, and I believe his last two starts are indicative of the guy we'll see down the stretch.

Concerning: .523%

Unfortunately, the Cardinals' remaining opponents' win% is .523%, giving them the fourth toughest strength of schedule remaining.

If the Cardinals are going to make up ground in the National League Wild Card race or even in the Central division, they are going to have to play winning baseball the rest of the season, and do so against a lot of tough opponents.

This week, the Cardinals go on the road to face the Reds for three games in Cincinnati, but then they play consecutive series against the Dodgers, Brewers, Twins, Padres, and Yankees to round out the month of August. Coming out of that gauntlet stretch, St. Louis then has to travel to Milwaukee for three games against the Brewers in what could be a season-defining series.

The strength of the schedule can sometimes be misleading during this time of year though. There always seem to be teams that are supposed to be bad that finish their seasons strong, as they call up young players looking to make their mark and play spoiler for teams in contention. The Cardinals just need to focus on taking care of their own business the rest of the way, as they cannot control how the Brewers, Mets, Padres, Braves, Pirates, Diamondbacks, or Giants will play down the stretch.

It is going to be a tough hill for the Cardinals to climb though. They dug themselves a major hole to begin the year, and after a hot stretch from May 12th through the All-Star Break, they have cooled off significantly. They don't necessarily need another crazy run in them to make the playoffs, but they have to find a way to win series after series down the stretch if they want a real shot at October baseball.

If not, then the next concerning stat we'll be talking about is "two" - two straight years the Cardinals have missed the playoffs. And if that's the case, you better believe major change would be coming in St. Louis.