2 reasons Cards fans should panic after the Reds sweep, 1 reason we shouldn't

The St. Louis Cardinals were swept in demoralizing fashion this week by the Cincinnati Reds. How much should the fans panic?

St. Louis Cardinals v Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals v Cincinnati Reds / Kirk Irwin/GettyImages
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The St. Louis Cardinals waltzed into Cincinnati having won three of their last five games. They won the three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays at home, and they split the cross-state series against the Kansas City Royals over the weekend.

The Cardinals were on the outside of the Wild Card picture at the time, but they were definitely within striking distance. With a tough schedule ahead of them that featured seven straight series against teams with winning records, the Cardinals needed to at least take the series against the Reds. A sweep would have been ideal.

Instead, the Cardinals' bats went silent, the pitching gave up far too many home runs, and defensive blunders doomed whatever hope was left. The Reds swept the Cardinals, and the two teams are now tied in second place in the National League Central with a 60-61 record.

This uninspiring performance left fans listless heading into perhaps the team's toughest part of the schedule yet. The Cardinals sit nine games back of the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers, and they're now four games back of the third wild card spot.

Should fans panic at this point, or is there still reason to believe in the Redbirds?

Cardinal fans should panic because the offense continues to crater.

Prior to the season, the feeling amongst fans was that the team's offense would carry them to success this year. There was plenty of balance, and the left-handed triumvirate of Brendan Donovan (on-base percentage), Lars Nootbaar (all-around hitting), and Nolan Gorman (power) would give opposing teams fits.

Jordan Walker, Paul Goldschmidt, Willson Contreras, and Nolan Arenado were supposed to be spark plugs in the heart of the lineup. Masyn Winn would hopefully come into his own by now, but the hope was that whatever offense he would provide this year would be the icing on the cake.

The exact opposite was on display in The Queen City. The offense mustered only four runs across the three-game series, and they hit just one home run in a stadium that is a launch pad for long balls. The offense has been inconsistent and insufficient all year. The display in Cincy was just another example in a long line of poor offensive showings.

Cardinal fans should panic because the team's top pitchers were roughed up badly.

John Mozeliak signed Sonny Gray to be the team's ace. He wasn't going to repeat last year's Cy Young-worthy performance, but the hope was that he would be even 90% of his 2023 self. That alone would be sufficient to lead the Cardinals' starting rotation to success this year.

By and large, Sonny Gray has been about as good as advertised. His strikeout rates are up from last year, his xERA is nearly identical, he's walking fewer batters, and his opposing BABIP is virtually the same as it was in 2023. The primary difference? Home runs. Gray had a 0.39 HR/9 rate last year, and it's up to 1.17 HR/9 this year. He allowed only eight home runs last year in 32 starts, and he's given up 17 this year in only 22 starts. He would cede three home runs on Tuesday night.

Erick Fedde, the team's newest starting pitcher via trade, was supposed to slot in right behind Sonny Gray as the team's number two pitcher. Fedde was having a career year with the Chicago White Sox prior to the trade deadline, but he hasn't been able to replicate that success with the Cardinals.

Fedde allowed four runs on six hits, and he walked two batters while striking out only two. He also allowed two home runs in his outing. The Cardinals' top two pitchers did not pitch as such this past series, and that hurt the team's chances to succeed on the road in Cincy. Had Gray and Fedde pitched closer to their expectations, this series could have gone much differently.

Cardinal fans shouldn't be worried about the relievers.

The bullpen has been the team's best unit all year. Ryan Helsley, JoJo Romero, and Andrew Kittredge have been reliable all year, and secondary pitchers like Matthew Liberatore, Ryan Fernandez, and John King have also been pitching well this year.

The relievers in this series pitched 8.1 innings across the three games. They allowed just two earned runs and seven hits. John King allowed an inherited runner to score, but that earned run was added to Kyle Gibson's total for the day since he allowed the runner to get on base. Cardinals relievers struck out eight batters and walked just one across the three-game series.

All of that success was had without any one of the team's "big three" throwing even one pitch. Ryan Helsley, Andrew Kittredge, and JoJo Romero didn't touch the field at any point during the series. The bullpen was able to have a ton of success without the three best relievers throwing.

All year long, Cardinal relievers have been a bright spot on the season. While you won't find the team on many relief leaderboards -- they do have the ninth-best ERA as a group in baseball -- the relief corps has been steady throughout the year. They've been placed in high-leverage situations often, and they've held the lead or kept the team in the game in these situations.

Cardinal fans don't have to worry much about the bullpen after the blowout series in Cincinnati. Reinforcements like Steven Matz and Riley O'Brien are on the horizon; the team just needs to give their relievers a chance to shine late in games.

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