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2 excuses the Cardinals can't use in 2023, and 1 they can use
While the success of a team's season lies in the hands of the players, coaching staff, and front office, sometimes bad luck happens. Which excuses can the 2023 Cardinals use to explain their down year?
It is reasonable to look for explanations, reasons, and even excuses when things don't go as planned for a baseball team. Did injuries hamper the team? Did their division rivals play better than expected? Did a tragic event happen that hurt the team?
The St. Louis Cardinals fell very short of projections. Websites and writers across the country picked the team to finish first in the National League Central and even contend for a World Series if everything went well. The Cardinals had a stout offense, reliable defense, strong bullpen, and depth that could measure up to some of the best teams in the country.
Instead of cheering the Redbirds on at Busch Stadium in October, St. Louis fans will have to trudge through the final week of the season looking forward to an offseason that should be rife with transactions, signings, and hope. It's exciting to dream of players such as Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, and Logan Gilbert in Cardinal Red, but it's much more preferable to watch your team contend for a title.
For now, let's take a look at possible excuses the Cardinals can use to defend their down year and common excuses that the Cardinals cannot use to explain their treacherous downfall. Hopefully, we can find some answers for the great downfall of 2023.
"They were just unlucky!" - True
Baseball is a game of centimeters...and luck. The environment at the ballpark can change a sure-fire home run to a deep pop fly. Hitters have no effect on the ball once it is put in play. Their job is done once the bat hits the ball.
However, there are some stats that can point to luck. wOBA (weighted on-base percentage) and xwOBA (expected weighted on-base percentage) when compared can show how unlucky a team truly was. If a team's wOBA is less than their xwOBA, the team experienced a reasonable amount of bad luck.
In 2023, the Cardinals have a wOBA of .323 and an xwOBA of .334. Their difference of -.011 indicates a bit of bad luck. For context, the Cardinals have the fourth-greatest negative gap between their wOBA and their xwOBA. Only the Yankees, Royals, and Tigers have experienced more bad luck according to wOBA. Therefore, the Cardinals have been a bit unlucky.
"They had a tough schedule!" - False
This year, MLB instituted what they call a "balanced schedule" For the first time, every team would play every other team for at least one series in the regular season. This created opportunities for NL teams and AL teams to play during the season. Teams in weaker divisions could no longer rely on a weaker schedule to make it to the playoffs.
Fangraphs releases various projections at the beginning of the season for each team. One of those values that is included in this data is strength of schedule. Based on 2022 results, which team's opponents for the year have the worst winning percentage? Put in other words, which teams are playing the worst teams from 2022?
Before the year started, the Cardinals had the easiest schedule according to Fangraphs. Literally every other team in the majors and NL Central had a tougher schedule than the Cardinals. Using 2022 records, the Cardinals' 2023 opponents had a combined winning percentage of .492. The Brewers had the 2nd easiest schedule. The Orioles, one of the best teams in the majors this year, had the toughest projected schedule. The Cardinals can't blame a tough schedule on their bad season.
"Their best players were injured!" - False
Injuries can hurt a team heavily, especially if key players get injuries. The Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers have lost a large chunk of their starting rotations this year, yet they are both still contending for division titles.
Spotrac provides total number of days on the injured list for each team. While these data points include long-term injuries that teams expected to happen (for example, surgery at the end of the 2022 season), information can still be gathered that is reliable.
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Per Spotrac, the Cardinals rank 23rd in total days with players on the injured list, meaning 22 teams have had more "injured days" than the Cardinals. While other playoff teams have experienced fewer injuries such as the Diamondbacks, Phillies, Astros, Blue Jays, and Orioles, there are still plenty of playoff teams that have performed well despite facing huge amounts of injuries. The Dodgers, Reds, Twins, and Braves have all experienced more than 1,500 days on the injured list. The Cardinals cannot blame injuries for their down year.