Nathan Church entered Cardinals' good graces in 2026, but his floor remains more impressive than his ceiling

There was a lot of buzz around the St. Louis Cardinals' Opening Day roster, as the team elected to roll with seven infielders and three catchers, leaving room for just three outfielders. Much of that was due to Lars Nootbaar's surgery-related absence, but it still pushed an unproven trio -- Nathan Church, Victor Scott II, and Jordan Walker -- into everyday roles without much of an insurance policy.

We all know what happened from that point forward. Walker finally lived up to the hype, earning his first All-Star nod while posting a career-high .793 OPS. Scott, meanwhile, lost his job in center field by early June due to an inability to hit with any modicum of consistency.

In his stead, Church stepped up and seemed to run away with the CF gig in the second half of the season. He wasn't an offensive powerhouse either, but his 81 wRC+ this season easily outpaces Scott's career mark of 63.

With strong defense and baserunning acumen boosting Church's floor, can we declare the center field position battle in St. Louis officially over?

Nathan Church is the Cardinals' center fielder of the present, but not necessarily the future

Before we even get into his actual production, it's worth noting that the Chaim Bloom regime clearly likes what Church brings to the table. Remember, he somewhat surprisingly earned a spot on that Opening Day roster over the red-hot Nelson Velázquez and eventually ousted Scott from the big leagues when Nootbaar made his way back from injury. The belief from within the organization is there, which certainly helps his case to be the long-term center fielder.

Defense remains his calling card, as he collected +3 Outs Above Average in just over 800 innings in center field this year. Including his brief time in the majors last year, Church has been worth +6 OAA and +9 Defensive Runs Saved across all three outfield spots combined, which would make him a clear Gold Glove contender if Pete Crow-Armstrong weren't patrolling the same position in Chicago.

He's also a smart baserunner, which is heavily aided by his 81st-percentile sprint speed. Ten steals in 142 games might pale in comparison to the 34 Scott swiped in roughly the same amount of time last year, but that's a trade-off the Cardinals will have to make in order to get Church's superior bat in the lineup.

Speaking of which, Church had a complicated season at the plate this year. He didn't get on base much (.290 OBP) and lacked the slugging production to make up for it (just 29 extra-base hits), but he makes a ton of contact and rarely strikes out. You'd obviously like to see a big spike in his 30% hard-hit rate and 85.6-mph average exit velocity, but simply getting the ball on that bat as often as he does gives him a noticeably higher offensive floor than Scott (whose career strikeout rate is near 25%).

I'd stop short of saying that he's clearly the center fielder of the future, but Church is a more well-rounded player than VSII. What you lose in raw speed and range you make up for in contact ability and arm strength, which is a trade-off worth making.

If he can turn some of his weaker contact into actual impact, Church may yet find another gear to his game.

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