MLB's salary cap and floor proposal would have massive ramifications for Cardinals rebuild under Chaim Bloom

As Major League Baseball and the MLBPA's labor negotiations heat up regarding the next Collective Bargaining Agreement, MLB submitted its proposal today regarding a salary cap and floor, both of which would have massive ramifications on the state of the St. Louis Cardinals and their rebuild under Chaim Bloom.

According to ESPN's Jesse Rogers, MLB is proposing a hard salary cap of $245.5 million, which would include player benefits as well, and a salary floor of $171.2 million. In this proposal, 12 teams, including the Cardinals, would have to raise their salaries for the 2027 season, and six teams would have to shed salary in order to meet these new rules.

The likelihood that this exact proposal ends up being what both sides agree to is very low, and as Rogers noted, there would be a whole bunch of other topics that could be negotiated, like Bird rights (similar to the NBA, where teams can go over the cap to resign players), changes to free agency/arbitration requirements, etc.

Initial salary cap and floor proposals by MLB would have major pros and cons for the Cardinals

All of these things would have a significant impact on the game of baseball as we know it, but I think the Cardinals are in a unique spot where these changes could have both positive and negative impacts on them specifically. I want to spend a few moments running through as many as I can think of on both sides.

How the salary cap/floor proposal could benefit the Cardinals

1. Big dogs can't spend as much. $245.3 million is a major step down for the Dodgers ($409m), Mets ($370m), Yankees ($334m), Phillies ($320m), and Blue Jays ($318m), who all way outspend that number already. Payroll size does not mean everything, as we can see from the Mets, Phillies, and Blue Jays' seasons so far and recent dud years from clubs in the past, but it does give an organization a competitive advantage. The Dodgers, for example, do the things well that small markets have to do to compete, but they can also spend 3x more than they do on payroll. The Cardinals wouldn't have to worry about that anymore.

2. The Cardinals have ultimate financial flexibility. With no players under guaranteed contracts for 2027 and just $14 million sent out in trades, the Cardinals will likely have below $100 million in payroll commitments again after contract renewals and arbitration, leaving them with upwards of $100 million to spend on their roster that will be mandated by the league.

3. Cardinals could be positioned to take on good players on bigger contracts from teams that have to shed money. Because of those first two points, there may be teams around the game who need to shed payroll from their books in order to meet the new requirements, and the Cardinals will be one of those teams that can be ready to take on contracts of good players.

4. The Cardinals have already proven they can operate above the current floor in the past. Just a few years ago, the Cardinals were operating with a payroll that exceeded that salary floor proposal, so there shouldn't be any worries about whether or not they can cleanly operate under that new stipulation. Now, they do need to figure out both their TV situation and get attendance back up to help with that.

5. Easy excuse to lock up Jordan Walker, JJ Wetherholt, etc. If the Cardinals will need to spend a lot of money to match MLB's new rules, then it would make sense for some of that spending to go toward extensions for players like Jordan Walker, JJ Wetherholt, Ivan Herrera, or Alec Burleson. The Cardinal should already be exploring some of those potential extensions, but this would further reiterate that.

How the proposed salary cap/floor could actually hurt the Cardinals

1. Franchises that historically don't spend (like the Brewers) will be forced to invest more into payroll. From a competitive balance perspective, franchises like the Brewers and Pirates have always shied away from spending like even the Cardinals do on their payroll, and that would now change.

2. The proposed floor isn't far off from where the Cardinals have spent before, so it doesn't give them as much of an edge over smaller markets. And since this proposed floor is already in the range that the Cardinals have operated in the past, there may not be much of a gap in spending between the Cardinals and their smaller market rivals anymore. While the Cardinals would be "gaining back" some ground on bigger market teams, they may be losing it on smaller markets.

3. Limits players' ceiling for contracts. From a player's perspective, the salary cap would limit the ceiling of future deals since clubs can't just spend whatever they want. Now, that mainly impacts the megadeals, but it would also have a trickle-down impact on those mid-market deals.

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