MLB.com believes that Nolan Gorman's 2025 season for the Cardinals is one to watch

MLB.com just released their breakout candidates for each team in 2025. The list chooses one player for each of the clubs and those players range from prospects to veterans looking to make the leap to All-Star talent. For the St. Louis Cardinals writer John Denton chose 24-year-old slugger Nolan Gorman as the team's player on the verge of a breakout next season.

Why Gorman is someone to be excited about

Nolan Gorman was drafted in the first round out of high school by the Cardinals in 2018. Coming out of the draft, he was profiled as a future middle-of-the-order bat with question marks around his contact rate, but showed defensive capabilities that could see him potentially stick at third but was a candidate for a position switch later in his career. Gorman made his professional debut later that summer as an 18-year-old third baseman and showed his offensive skills right away with 17 home runs in 53 games between Rookie and A-ball. The plate discipline concerns appeared at times, but he put up a manageable 27.7% strikeout rate to go along with a strong 12.4% walk rate.

Going into the 2019 minor league campaign, Gorman's strong professional debut netted him the organization's #2 prospect ranking. After starting the season with Peoria, the 19-year-old reached high-A and started to show the total package of his potential. All told, Gorman's end-of-the-season slash line of .248/.326/.439 showcased the high power that made him a first-round pick, knocking 15 homers, 30 doubles, and 6 triples. Strikeout concerns appeared again as Gorman tallied a 29.7% strikeout rate but still took walks at over an 8% clip. Gorman was initially seen as the franchise's third baseman of the future but his 21 errors and .921 fielding percentage opened up the conversation of moving positions to get him to the major leagues faster.

Unfortunately for Gorman and the Cardinals, the 2020 COVID-shortened season canceled all plans for the slugger to continue developing all aspects of his game. His MLB readiness being in question plus Nolan Arenado's desire to get out of Colorado closed the door on Gorman being the team's future at third base, so the Cardinals used the 2021 season as a way to get him comfortable with a shift to second base where the team had a need in the near future. Gorman's 2021 campaign was the one the team and fans were expecting from the top-50 prospect and he hit 25 homers with an .814 OPS in Springfield and Memphis. Even more encouraging was the fact that Gorman dropped his strikeout rate to 22% despite the year layoff and increased talent at the upper levels of the minors.

In 2022, Gorman started the year with Memphis and continued to absolutely mash, putting up 15 homers in his first month plus and a batting average over .300. The big league club could not ignore the offense any longer and called Gorman up for his debut in late May. His debut started out hot as he hit .500 in his first three games with two doubles and only one strikeout. However, big league teams made the adjustment and his numbers quickly fell after an 0-for-11 stretch with seven strikeouts brought his average to the low .200s. The 22-year-old busted out of that slide in a big way with a four-hit, four RBI day against the Brewers where Gorman also notched his first big league homer.

While the power stayed, the strikeouts started to catch up to Gorman as he reached his first All-Star break with nine home runs but a 31% K-rate to go along with his 9.4% BB rate. Things did not improve at the plate in the second half as Gorman hit .207 with an 87 WRC+ leading to his demotion for the remainder of the season. Defensively, Gorman played 68 games at second base and only committed 8 errors, but the advanced numbers were much more bearish on his athleticism at the keystone. Despite the struggles, Gorman was expected to be the everyday second baseman going into the 2023 season.

2023 started the way fans and the organization hoped with Gorman knocking 13 homers with a .270 batting average and 26% strikeout rate through the season's first two months. However, June was a major struggle and he hit .143 with an almost 40% strikeout rate and only two homers. A July surge put Gorman's first-half totals at 17 homers with a .229 batting average with near 11% and 32% walk and strikeout rates, respectively. Over a full season, those numbers would be palatable for a team looking to extend the lineup with power at a premium position. Gorman's second half was nice as well, with 10 more homers and a .252 batting average until a low-back strain coupled with the club's struggles shut him down for the year. In total, his performance raised excitement around the league as he finished with a 2.2 fWAR and a 118 WRC+.

After the team's pitiful 2023, expectations were raised for 2024 thinking about full seasons of youngsters like Gorman and Masyn Winn surrounded by veterans like Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Willson Contreras. Unfortunately, we know how this story ended as Gorman's 2024 was a struggle from the start. In the season's first half, he limped to the All-Star break with a .206 average and 17 home runs but an alarming 37.5% strikeout rate. Despite his inability to consistently put the ball in play, Gorman's first half was good for a 92 WRC+, providing hope that even a little increased contact could push him into triple digits. That was not to be, however, and Gorman's struggles continued, leading to his demotion to Memphis for the remainder of the season.

So where are the positives? For one, Gorman will be playing the 2025 season at age 25 with over 1000 big league at-bats to his name. To this point in his career, he grades out as a 102 OPS+ player despite last season's tough 85. He has shown the ability to make adjustments at the lower levels, with walk rates always at or above 10% while striking out about 30% of the time. Numbers like these make Gorman a potential three-true-outcome player, but the league has seen players (Kyle Schwarber) become a force in the lineup despite low batting average numbers. Defensively, Gorman has held his own at the keystone. However, with Nolan Arenado (maybe) on his way out, the thought is that Gorman will head back to his natural third-base position. Where he differs slightly from players like Schwarber is that he is not a complete liability on the defensive side of the ball and can hopefully create additional value with his glove.

Overall, it is too soon to write Gorman off as a Cardinals' bust, but it is not too early to think of 2025 as a make-or-break year for the young slugger. If he can show consistency with his approach at the plate, there is little reason to think that Gorman will not approach the 30-home run mark this season.