Mets surprise Pete Alonso replacement impacts multiple Cardinals trade assets

With the MLB Winter Meetings now in the rear view mirror, the St. Louis Cardinals have multiple items left on their to-do list that they will look to cross off as Christmas quickly approaches. Many of the Cardinals' prime assets have counterparts on both the free agent market and the trade block, so as some of those dominoes fall, it creates more clarity on what Chaim Bloom may do.

When Pete Alonso signed with the Baltimore Orioles a few days ago, that seemed to open a door for the New York Mets to swoop in and convince Willson Contreras to play in Queens. Instead, Mets' president of baseball operations, David Stearns, opted to sign one of the top second basemen on the market to fill the gap that Alonso is leaving.

Huh? We'll make sense of that move in just a moment, but the surprise solution the Mets pursued to replace Pete Alonso actually helps bring clarity to the trade markets for both Contreras and Brendan Donovan.

Jorge Polanco signing with the Mets now shifts the Cardinals' trade market for Brendan Donovan and Willson Contreras

The Mets inked Polanco to a two-year deal today worth $40 million, opting for the smaller AAV and fewer years that he had to offer over giving Alonso the long-term security he was searching for.

Polanco is coming off a career year with the Seattle Mariners, where he posted a 132 wRC+ and 26 home runs in 138 games. While Polanco has been a primary second baseman in his career, it is expected that he will fill time for the Mets at first base and DH.

While I do think this makes it unlikely that Contreras ends up in New York now, the Mets could continue to shake up their roster and find space for him. What this does tell me about Contreras' market is that he carries quite a bit of value this offseason. Contreras is set to make just $36.5 million over the final two years of his contract with a $17.5 million club option for 2028, and he posted a 124 wRC+ in 2025 while playing great defense at first base.

For further context, Contreras has posted a 129 wRC+ since becoming a Cardinal in 2023, and Polanco's wRC+ since that time is just 114, even with that career year baked in.

If the right team comes calling for Contreras, I do believe the Cardinals can get great value in return for him, especially if they are willing to eat a bit of money as they did in the Sonny Gray deal. Now, Contreras has made it clear that he would like to stay in St. Louis and will only consider a trade if it makes sense for him, so the Cardinals are at his mercy in that way.

Now, for Donovan, Polanco landing with the Mets is interesting in multiple ways. First, one of the best second base options this offseason is now off the board, and he's not even set to fill that hole for New York. So in theory, one option is off the board, but the market didn't actually lose a potential Donovan suitor.

If anything, this move actually increases the Mariners' potential need for Donovan. Polanco was a huge part of their postseason run this past year, and they really need to replace his offensive production. They are one of the best potential matches for the Cardinals in terms of what they are hoping to get back in a Donovan deal.

Stay patient, Cardinals fans. There is plenty of time for Bloom to get these deals done.