Matthew Liberatore is beginning to resemble another frustrating Cardinals mirage

If St. Louis Cardinals fans were looking to assuage their concerns that Matthew Liberatore had lost his touch following a rough end to 2025, they haven't found any solace this season. It once appeared that Liberatore had put it all together, but now he's beginning to look more like a flash in the pan who is leaving the Cardinals to chase that one magical run. It's a saga that Cardinals fans saw play out seven years ago, when Jack Flaherty held the baseball world by the scruff of its neck.

Flaherty's run in the second half of 2019 was a magical one. A healthy Flaherty achieved a minuscule 0.77 ERA, striking out 100 batters in 82 innings, and it appeared that with injuries seemingly in the past, he would deliver on the potential he showed when he placed as the Cardinals' second-ranked prospect in 2016 on MLB Pipeline. But although he remained healthy in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, he never found a groove, pitching to a 4.91 ERA and a 4.11 FIP.

Injuries took a massive toll on Flaherty in 2021 and 2022, limiting him to just 23 starts over those two seasons, in which he had a 3.54 ERA but a more worrisome 4.45 FIP. The Cardinals gave up the ghost on him in 2023, dealing him to the Baltimore Orioles at the trade deadline for César Prieto, Zack Showalter and Drew Rom.

Liberatore is approaching Flaherty territory in his Cardinals career

The Cardinals entered 2026 with Liberatore written in pen as their Opening Day starting pitcher. This was coming off of a season where he had a 4.21 ERA in 151.2 innings, but that masked his exceptional first half. In 16 starts from Opening Day through June 29, Liberatore owned a 3.70 ERA, a 3.09 FIP, and a 76-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio. In his subsequent 13 starts, he had a 5.01 ERA and a 5.48 FIP, but many around the Cardinals chalked it up to fatigue, as Liberatore had never pitched a full major league season as a starter.

Now, after laboring through 1.2 innings and getting rocked for seven runs on seven hits on June 18 against the Kansas City Royals, Liberatore holds an unsightly 5.23 ERA in 72.1 innings of work on the 2026 season. Since June 30, 2025, Liberatore has the fourth-worst ERA among starters with at least 130 innings, at 5.13. His expected ERA during that time frame is the second worst in the league, at 6.25. In terms of batted balls, he has the second-highest line drive rate against him, at 24.4%. His swing-and-miss stuff has evaporated: He has an 8.7% swinging-strike rate over that span, compared with his 10.2% rate in his first 16 starts of 2025.

Unlike Flaherty, Liberatore's issues don't appear to be related to injuries, so the Cardinals might still have a few tricks up their sleeve to solve his problems. They could opt to replace Pedro Pagés, who has caught Liberatore in every start this season, with Jimmy Crooks or Iván Herrera. If that fails, the Cardinals may need to resort to placing Liberatore in the bullpen if they're still in contention, potentially having him replace left-hander Justin Bruihl.

For a few months, it looked like the Cardinals' trade of Randy Arozarena for Liberatore might not have been as lopsided as it had once appeared. But as Liberatore's struggles mount, his glorious first half of 2025 has never appeared more out of reach. The last thing Cardinals fans want is for him to go the way of Flaherty and be sent packing for peanuts, but if he can't rediscover the form he flashed last year, his spot in the rotation and, eventually, on the team, could be in jeopardy.

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