Fans' concerns about recent regression from breakout Cardinals starter are warranted

Even before Matthew Liberatore's most recent rough outings, some fans and media were beginning to wonder if the St. Louis Cardinals needed to be concerned about Liberatore's usage as the season goes on. Not because his effectiveness was faulty early on, but because there was a fear that his arm may not have the endurance to go pole to pole this season.

Cracks began to show against the Texas Rangers last weekend, and now his blow-up start against the Kansas City Royals following that rough weekend outing have fans' concerns rising to an all-time high.

I don't think anyone should be panicking right now, but fans are 100% fair in raising their concerns about what Liberatore will be able to bring to the table moving forward.

Matthew Liberatore's recent regression due to fatigue is a major cause of concern for the Cardinals.

While Cardinals fans should be relieved that Liberatore did not experience a major injury during that start when he was pulled from the game, leaving due to "fatigue-related issues" in the early parts of June is not something anyone wants to hear, especially when that was already one of Liberatore's biggest red flags in recent seasons.

While Liberatore has not always been sharp with his stuff or used his pitches effectively to attack opposing hitters, it was Liberatore's inability to hold velocity late into starts that really needed to be answered if he was going to have a long-term future as a starting pitcher.

I do think it is important to note that Liberatore has surpassed 120 innings three different times in his career already from 2021-2023, so we are not talking about an arm like Tink Hence that keeps getting hurt or Jordan Hicks who wasn't lengthed out long enough before coming to the bigs to become a starter. Before this season, Liberatore was most effective for the Cardinals as a reliever in 2024, but prior to his last two starts, Liberatore held a 2.73 ERA in 10 starts while going six or more innings in eight of those appearances. Let's not just completely throw out that effectiveness after two bad starts.

Liberatore wasn't just getting by as a starter, he was thriving, throwing like one of the top arms in baseball and had a legitimate argument to be an All-Star this year. If Liberatore goes out and shoves in his next outing, we likely stop talking about this pretty quickly, but I do think it is a fair topic of conversation right now.

Anyone who is running to Twitter to declare Liberatore a fraud is jumping the gun big time, but we should be concerned and wonder if he can actually hold up as a starting pitcher, and even if he can, will he be even close to as effective as he was to start the year?

I'm not sure many of us expected, even after 10 starts, Liberatore to have one of the best ERAs in all of baseball all season long. Regression was likely coming. But his last two starts aren't just regression from the young lefty, they are really bad starts that cannot continue if he wants to have a role in the rotation all season long. So can Liberatore find some middle ground?

That will be the million-dollar question (quite literally) all season long. Liberatore, if he is able to maintain a high level of play in the rotation over the course of the season, is going to earn himself a major raise in arbitration this offseason. And for the Cardinals, his emergence, especially as a mid- to front-line rotation arm, has major implications for their future.

Liberatore's dip in velocity on Thursday night was a major red flag. He went from pumping out mid-90s fastballs to having one clock out at 89 MPH before he was pulled from the game. Some have pointed out some regression in his mechanics that may be playing a role, and we obviously can't rule out his prior issues of maintaining velocity from the past.

The good news for Liberatore is that, at least by his own estimation, he is feeling "out of sync" rather than some physical issue that is going on. He told trainers on Thursday that nothing hurt, and as of right now, he is treating this as a rough patch that almost every big leaguer has throughout a season.

So what can the Cardinals do with Liberatore? The Cardinals' player development staff like Rob Cerfolio, Larry Day, and Matt Pierpont are going to work with the Major League coaches to develop a plan for Liberatore between now and his next start to get him back on track, but there are also a couple of roster moves or tweaks the Cardinals can make to buy Liberatore some time as he figures this out.

1. First, and the most cautious move of all, is that the Cardinals could place Liberatore on the 10-day IL, allowing St. Louis to skip one of his starts and give him a bit of a breather physically and give Liberatore time to work on anything mechanically that may need cleaned up.
2. Second, the Cardinals can stick with their current plan of implementing a six-man rotation starting this weekend, buying Liberatore an extra day of rest and preparation prior to his next start, which would be slated to be on Wednesday against the Toronto Blue Jays.
3. Third, which would be a bit of a middle ground here, is that the Cardinals could push Liberatore's next start back a few days due to the six-man rotation that is being implemented. Instead of giving each of the other four arms an extra day breather during this first turn, the club could skip Liberatore's next start, run the other five starters, and have Liberatore appear next weekend instead.

Personally, I'd stick with options one or two, but the Cardinals staff will make the best decision for Liberatore's immediate and long-term success based on the information they have internally. Like I said, Liberatore could come out next week and look like his early-season self again, calming down concerns rather quickly. But if there was a time in the season to be cautious and slow-play things, now might be that time.

If the Cardinals wanted to place Liberatore on the IL to buy him some time, they could handle it a few different ways. Sem Robberse recently had Tommy John surgery and still is not on the 60-day IL, so the Cardinals could free up a 40-man roster spot and add another arm to their mix, whether it is a depth starter like Drew Rom or another reliever like Andre Granillo. The Cardinals could use someone like Rom or Graceffo in a spot start situation, or give the nod to Steven Matz and recall Riley O'Brien, Chris Roycroft, Graceffo, or a new face in Granillo.

We'll see where things stand over the next few days, but first, the Cardinals need all hands on deck to have a good series against the reigning World Series Champion Los Angeles Dodgers, who are coming to town this weekend.