The Cardinals' breakout starter could be booted from the rotation down the stretch

An unlikely source has provided a major boost to the St. Louis Cardinals' rotation in 2025. So far on the season, Matthew Liberatore has pitched to a 3.07 ERA in seven starts. It appears to this point that the Cardinals made the right decision by placing Liberatore in the rotation instead of the bullpen, but his success in the role could actually force the Cardinals to shut him down as the season rolls on.

Because Liberatore was mainly used out of the bullpen over the past two seasons, he only pitched 147.2 innings during that span. Now, with the lefty already having 41 innings under his belt after a month and a half of the season, the Cardinals have a decision to make down the road about whether they want to protect Liberatore from fatigue by providing an innings limit for him on the season.

Liberatore will likely be plucked from his spot in the rotation around the trade deadline to prevent injury or ineffectiveness.

One only needs to look at former Cardinals pitcher Jordan Hicks to see how relievers-turned-starters can excel early in the year but fade badly as the innings pile up. Hicks was a bullpen arm for the Cardinals, but the San Francisco Giants decided to try him out as a starter. The results were excellent at first, as he had a 2.70 ERA through his first 12 starts. It all came crumbling down afterward, as Hicks started eight more games and held a 6.37 ERA before being sent packing to the bullpen for the rest of the season.

Hicks and Liberatore are not one-for-one comparisons; Liberatore has a more complete arsenal than Hicks and thus may be more suited to seeing hitters more than one time through the order. But even if Liberatore pitches well, injury concerns are always present, especially for someone who would experience such a steep increase in innings thrown.

Shutting Liberatore down would be easier to come to terms with if the Cardinals were performing poorly, but President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak looks to be attempting to squeeze out one more year of contention from his team. As the Cardinals sit at .500 as of May 9, Mozeliak may be unable to resist the temptation of acquiring another starter at the trade deadline to replace Liberatore in the rotation. A smarter idea would be to move Steven Matz or Michael McGreevy to the rotation instead, as each of them could provide a fresh arm without forcing the Cardinals to surrender any talent in a trade.

It would be a bitter pill to swallow if the Cardinals were to prematurely wrap up Liberatore's season, especially if he is pitching effectively, but it's a discussion that will likely crop up as the year progresses. With Liberatore a potential fixture in future Cardinals rotations, the team can't afford to sacrifice his health; the Cardinals need him to be available for what they hope will be greener pastures ahead.