Masyn Winn's defense provides plenty of long-term value for the Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals continue to use the last couple weeks of an exciting 2026 season to look towards the future. By most accounts, future success may not be too far away, especially if Chaim Bloom loosens the purse strings and pushes the contention timeline up a bit. While some spots are locked in for 2027 and beyond, the conversation at some other positions have started to heat up.

The Cardinals appear to have some franchise-defining pieces all around the diamond, especially with the breakout of Jordan Walker and continued progression of Alec Burleson. Behind the plate, Leo Bernal has looked every part of a starting catcher at just 22-years-old, and JJ Wetherholt is locked up through his prime. Elsewhere, questions still remain but one of the hot topics all season has been the long-term viability of having Masyn Winn as the everyday shortstop when this team returns to contention.

Masyn Winn can be the Cardinals long-term shortstop even if the bat lags behind

Ever since Masyn Winn rolled his way through the minor leagues on the way to his major league debut as a 21-year-old, there was never a question about what he could do with the glove. Winn is as athletic as they come at shortstop and has a cannon for an arm that has saved the day more times than can be counted. He continues to be in the conversation for the best defensive shortstop in the game and cannot escape the comparisons to Hall of Famer Ozzie Smith.

Every baseball player sets their sights on Cooperstown, but the game has gone a different direction since Smith was backflipping his way onto the field in St. Louis. Defense is always important, but teams have emphasized power and run production over the glovework and those organizations who have made a full commitment towards offense have seen the most recent success in the standings. For Winn, his offensive output at this point in his career has been a disappointment when compared to his talent and minor league track record.

In parts of four minor league seasons, Winn is a career .271 hitter with a .790 OPS and 37 homers in 325 games. Since making his debut at the end of 2023, his production has plummeted to a .247 average with a .667 OPS and 31 homers in over 100 more games at the major league level. Of course, he is facing the best pitchers in the world, but his strikeouts, walks, and power numbers have all gone the wrong direction in a hard way. Add on the fact he has also stolen a total of 32 bases in the majors compared to 92 in the minors, I think it is fair to say he has been a minor disappointment with the bat.

Injuries continue to be an issue for Winn as he has missed time with knee and leg issues, as well as back and thumb pain that has popped up from time to time. He is still just 24-years-old so the injuries can have less short-term impact on the shortstop, but the consistent nicks and bruises can take their toll as he continues to play a demanding defensive position everyday. I have used these maladies as an excuse for why his bat has not been able to meet its full potential yet, but he has plenty of experience having played over 125 games in each of his three years.

I have continued to beat the drum that Winn can and should be a 20 homer, 20 stolen base player on a near-annual basis. However, his previous two seasons have looked overall similar when you take a look under the hood. Winn has a solid understanding of the strike zone, but fails to do damage with the pitches in the zone and has started to whiff more than ever. He is still making contact at a fine rate, but the consistent little injuries may have started to already show up on offense. Even if that is the case, his defense has continued to be out of this world and worth hanging on to.

Winn will not be a free agent until after the 2029 season and because he debuted so young, he will be just 27-years-old when that time comes. While expecting him to add another 10 years onto that playing resume might be a little out of the question, most would think that Winn has at least another handful of solid seasons when he hits the open market. I had previously weighed the thoughts of Winn being an extension candidate, but digging further shows that he might be the perfect player for the Cardinals to use a wait-and-see approach instead.

He is currently making about $780,000 per season and will enter the arbitration process for the first time this offseason. This offseason, Matthew Liberatore came into the process with 2.14 years of service time, which is nearly the same as what Winn (2.04) will have by the end of the year. Another disappointing youngster, Libby ended up playing this season on a $2.8 million contract. Assuming that model stays similar on the other side of the ball, a significant raise for Winn will do little to the Cardinals' overall financial standing.

If that is the going rate for Winn, that salary would rank him 30th among shortstops using the 2026 payroll rankings on Spotrac. Based on fWAR, Winn's 2026 season ranks him as 18th at the position, though defense makes up the vast majority of his value (third-best) as his offensive value puts him at the 72nd spot. Since he is under team control through the 2029 season, the Cardinals have plenty of time to make a decision on his future. With other positions like third base, the bullpen, and potentially center field needing an upgrade, Bloom can hold off on the shortstop position and hope for Winn's offensive breakout.

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