Masyn Winn outperformed all expectations for the Cardinals in his rookie season

To say Masyn Winn surpassed all expectations during his rookie year with the St. Louis Cardinals would be an understatement.

This past week, Winn secured his the Fielding Bible Award for best defensive shortstop in all of baseball in what should be the first of many awards in his career. No one doubted Winn's raw tools defensively, well, aside from Justin Turner and his weird obsession with Winn's arm. But that arm truly made a difference throughout the year, evidenced by Winn tying Andrelton Simmons for the highest single season double plays run saved since the stat was first tracked.

Winn consistently made highlight plays with his 80-grade arm while also flashing incredible range for the position. The scary thing for the rest of the league is how much room Winn has to grow defensively - committing 18 errors on the season and still growing in his feel for playing shortstop at the Major League level. As Winn cuts down on those errors and continues to maximize his ability defensively, Winn may be in a class of his own defensively.

What really caught the eyes of the Cardinals, this fanbase, and those around the league was how comfortable Winn was at the plate in his first full season. Winn's potential with his bat was real over the last few years as a prospect, but what his ceiling could actually be was widely debated, and most people thought it would take Winn some time to find his footing.

Those concerns were then validated by Winn's cup of coffee in St. Louis last year. In 137 plate appearances, Winn slashed .172/.230/.238 with two home runs and eight RBI. His 28 wRC+ and -0.8 fWAR was not causing anyone to pick him to break out as a hitter in 2024.

The major reason why the Cardinals wanted Winn to make his debut down the stretch in 2023 was to give him extended exposure to big league pitching, giving him an offseason to grow from that experience and come into 2024 without the added pressure of making his debut. Even so, realistic expectations for Winn had him being a below league average bat throughout his rookie season, really finding his value for St. Louis with his glove and on the basepaths.

After the first two months of the season though, Winn posted an average north of .300 and wRC+ above 120. He wasn't just exceeding expectations that others had for him, Winn was one of the better hitters in all of baseball, quickly becoming the Cardinals everyday lead off hitter and becoming a real difference maker offensively.

Winn had his slumps like all players. The months of June and September were rough for the young shortstop offensively. But in March/April, May, and August, Winn was at least 20% above-league-average at the plate offensively and was average during the month of July. Winn's final slash line in 2024 came out to .267/.314/.416, good for a 103 wRC+ in the process.

Finishing 3% above average at the plate in his rookie year is quite the accomplishment for the 22-year-old. It would not have surprised anyone to see Winn take a few years to get to that marker, and he even began to tap into his raw power down the stretch, hitting 10 of his 15 home runs in his final 62 games.

Forgive me for not going super in depth with the historical precedent of Winn's rookie season (I'm actually flying to El Salvador while writing this), but I found some really interesting nuggets that go to show how impactful Winn already.

Comparing Winn's rookie year to all past Cardinals shortstops, Winn's 4.9 bWAR was 18th-best among all shortstops for St. Louis since 1900.

Comparing Winn to some of his recent contemporaries, he posted the sixth-best fWAR (3.6) among all rookie shortstops 22-years-old or younger since the year 2000, only trailing Corey Seager, Troy Tulowitzki, Gunnar Henderson, Hanley Ramirez, and Francisco Lindor. Even if you expand that list back to the year 1900, Winn ranks fWAR ranks 16th all-time among those rookies. His 103 wRC+ actually ranked 14th among 22 year old or younger rookie shortstops since 2000, which is pretty incredible considering he's a guy who will always be known for his defense first.

It would be incredibly unfair to Winn to expect him to reach some of the heights that Witt Jr., Henderson, Seager, and Lindor have gotten to so far in their careers, but I don't think anyone should be ruling out Winn rising to superstar status in this league, especially if he is able to channel power at the plate on a consistent basis.

An underrated area for improvement in Winn's game actually comes on the basepaths. While he was a valuable baserunner for the Cardinals and often took the extra base when hitting or when a teammate drove the ball into the gaps, Winn finished with just 11 stolen bases and was caught stealing five times. Winn should really be swiping 20-30 bags a year, and upping that number while being more efficent at doing so would add even more to his game.

I think it's safe to say that as of today, Winn has risen to face of the franchise status for the Cardinals, and he's the player the Cardinals are "building around" at the moment. Winn's entire package as a player, paired with his the exciting style of baseball he plays on a consistent basis, makes him an easy fan favorite.

Does this mean Winn is going to be a superstar? Nope. But it is hard to put a ceiling on this guy. Even if Winn only improves a litlte bit over the next few years, fans should be extremely happy about how he has panned out. But there are plenty of reasons to believe that what Winn was able to do at such a young age is a sign of stardom to come.