Jeff Passan's dream Cardinals trade deadline target isn't realistic now but could be later

While no one should expect the St. Louis Cardinals to make a splash at the trade deadline, ESPN's Jeff Passan just teased a potential offseason blockbuster. Passan listed Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert as the "dream match" for the Cardinals, stating that while the Mariners have "zero intention" of moving Gilbert, his shrinking club control may lead to him being a great fit for St. Louis in an offseason trade.

The Cardinals are unlikely to change course when it comes to how they'll handle the trade deadline. If they remain in contention, they may hold a higher asking price in order to part ways with Dustin May, Lars Nootbaar, or other potential trade candidates, but the odds that they add anything of significance remain very low. Passan listed Giants' starter Robbie Ray as a fit, which doesn't seem like something the Cardinals would pursue.

But this idea of connecting the Cardinals to the Mariners for an offseason deal sure does make a lot of sense, and once the winter rolls around, the two could once again tango and explore a deal for one of Seattle's arms.

The Cardinals and Mariners make a ton of sense as offseason trade partners

This has to be like the fifth year in a row where the Cardinals and Mariners were heavily connected as trade partners. It's always made sense - the Cardinals have cost-controlled bats and position player prospects that could interest Seattle, and the Mariners have young pitching that the Cardinals would covet. But while the two sides have things the other wants, they've never been able to find deals that they both liked.

There is also the dynamic now of Matt Pierpont, the Cardinals director of pitching, who came over from the Mariners, where he served in different roles as a pitching coach and pitching coordinator.

In this case, the teams once again make a lot of sense, but I am personally less sold on the idea of Gilbert ending up a Cardinal than Passan is. Passan pointed out that Gilbert going into his final year of team control could motivate the Mariners to sell, but I'd also argue that it makes him far less attractive to the Cardinals in a big trade.

Instead, if the Cardinals and Mariners did swing a deal, names like George Kirby, Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller, and Emerson Hancock would make far more sense. Each of them has between two and four years of club control remaining, and if the Cardinals are going to part with legit pieces, that's going to need to be a part of the appeal.

Passan was right to mention that Seattle is likely eager to turn to top prospects Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan, so I don't see them trading either of those guys away. But even with Gilbert's impending free agency, Seattle has at least seven other starting pitcher options that any team would want to deploy, so giving up one of those arms to target prospects or position players makes a ton of sense to me. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic has mentioned that Luis Castillo could be on the move for Seattle.

If the Cardinals hold onto Lars Nootbaar at this trade deadline, he certainly could be of interest to Seattle. He'd be a big upgrade over Luke Raley in right field or Victor Robles in center, so he could be a part of a package for one of those young arms.

Cal Raleigh has had an awful year for Seattle after finishing second in American League MVP voting in 2025, and while there is no shot they are looking for his replacement, they could see a Jimmy Crooks or Leo Bernal as interesting options to help take some of the catching load off Raleigh.

Or maybe the clubs get a bit wild and talk about names like Ivan Herrera or Alec Burleson, both of whom should carry significant value now with their continued rises offensively and would lessen the value of assets needed to be attached to this kind of deal. Obviously each of those arms carries different values, but none of them would come cheap.

Perhaps the Cardinals would consider a deal where they attach some value to Nootbaar to bring in Gilbert, but I just don't see Chaim Bloom wanting to acquire an arm with one year of control remaining for a high price at this stage in the build.

We've got a whole lot of baseball, an MLB Draft, a trade deadline, and a potential lockout before this becomes a serious conversation, but for now, I'm at least earmarking the idea of the Mariners pitching, less so Logan Gilbert, as a trade fit for the Cardinals this offseason.

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