Ivan Herrera's days as the St. Louis Cardinals' catcher are clearly numbered

While the St. Louis Cardinals haven't officially closed the door on Ivan Herrera playing catcher for them moving forward, they sure seem to be on the fast track toward that reality.

In fact, there's a chance we may never see Herrera catch another game for St. Louis.

When talking to reporters on Thursday, Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol gave an update on Herrera's rehab assignment and expected return to the big league club following the All-Star break, and within that update, he let us know that it's unlikely that Herrera takes reps behind the plate the rest of this season.

“We have to definitely keep that in mind as far as if we want to keep him healthy for the remaining couple months,” manager Oliver Marmol said regarding Ivan Herrera and his lower half injuries this year. “We’ve talked about that. We haven’t come up with, like, 'This is exactly what it will look like,' but we’re pretty close to [not catching].”

While keeping Herrera healthy is top priority for the club, there are other factors at play that make it likely that Herrera's long-term future with the club involves becoming a full-time designated hitter or changing positions this offseason.

The Cardinals seem to be preparing Ivan Herrera for a new position and removal of catching duties long-term

Apparently, he's already taking some fly balls during his rehab assignment as well.

Look, for a few months now, it's felt like we were heading toward the end of the line for Herrera as a catcher. Like Willson Contreras last year, the Cardinals have missed their best player for much of the season due to injuries that seem to be sustained or accelerated by his catching duties. Just from a health standpoint alone, keeping a bat in their lineup that is top 10 in all of baseball in wRC+ this year (161!) and 15th in all of baseball in wRC+ since 2023 (139) makes all the sense in the world. Yes, Herrera provides even more value if his bat is behind home plate, but not if he's rarely healthy.

Second, and almost equally as important, is the fact that Herrera is a well below-average defense catcher and has not seen enough improvements in that area to warrant hope that he will develop enough to warrant him catching. Herrera has waffled between being an average to below-average framer and blocker behind the plate, but his arm has always been one of the worst in baseball. He can't control the base paths at all. And according to the Cardinals' brass, his game-calling is not where it needs to be in order to manage a pitching staff.

For as much love as the Cardinals do give to Pedro Pages and his work behind the plate, I do think they understand how awesome it would be if Herrera could be their catcher. They know, like we do, that his bat is special, and outside of Cal Raleigh and Will Smith, there aren't any other catchers who can touch the production offensively this year. If Herrera can carry that kind of bat while catching at even an average level, that's one of the best players in all of baseball.

One of the problems we run into with Herrera is a lack of sample size. This season, Herrera has just 171 plate appearances, and for his career, he's at just 496 since 2022. If Herrera were a healthy designated hitter or outfielder, he'd have more plate appearances in a single season than he's had in his whole Major League career thus far. He's shown nothing to make us believe he's not an elite hitter so far, but to be fair, that can change with a larger sample size.

Sure, if Herrera regresses to more of a 120 wRC+ or 130 wRC+ hitter at a different position, it's less valuable than that kind of bat behind the plate, but that's still a great hitter for other positions. Among left fielders, a position many speculate Herrera may be moved to soon, Herrera's 161 wRC+ this year would be first among all players at the position, ahead of stars like James Wood and Riley Greene. Even if he regressed to a 120-130 wRC+ bat, that would rank the 13th and 5th best bat at the position. The DH conversation is rather similar. Herrera is second only to Shohei Ohtani among primary DHs in wRC+ this year, and if he regressed to just 20%-30% above average, that is among the top 16 to top 8 primary DHs in all of baseball.

Frankly, it feels like the Cardinals are betting big on his bat, and rightfully so. Could it blow up in their face? Sure, it could. But again, everything we've seen from Herrera when he is at the plate is that he's one of the top 15 hitters in all of baseball, and the Cardinals would be foolish not to make sure his bat remains in the lineup from now on.

I'd still love to see them figure out a way to keep Herrera healthy and improve his defense behind the plate so he's firmly in the mix for MVP conversations in the future if his bat remains at this level, but notice how many "ifs" or "hopes" are in that sentence?

Moving Herrera off of catcher does not solve the position for them long-term. There are still a lot of questions that need to be answered. At some point, Pedro Pages has to hit more than he does to stay in the lineup, no matter how good his game calling may be, and his blocking issues are becoming more glaring. Yohel Pozo is a fun story, and I'd like to see him get more opportunities from here on out, but I don't think we should bank on him as a long-term option until we see more. Leonardo Bernal and Jimmy Crooks are top prospects, but they are still just prospects. And I'm very excited about Rainel Rodriguez, but he's just 18 years old and probably isn't a catcher long-term.

But what it does solve is making sure the Cardinals have a masher in the middle of their lineup each and every day. And moving him off the catcher position is probably the wisest way to do that.