Ivan Herrera is the young bat the Cardinals have been waiting over a decade for

A little over ten years ago, tragedy struck the St. Louis Cardinals with the death of their young superstar in the making, outfielder Oscar Taveras. They've spent the last decade chasing that next homegrown star.

They traded for a 25-year-old Jason Heyward, but he left them in free agency the following season. John Mozeliak was so high on Dylan Carlson that he said the only way he'd be traded was “if you’re willing to pry him through my dead hands.” Nolan Gorman was a top-20 prospect in baseball due to his massive power potential, and Jordan Walker, whom some considered to be the best prospect in baseball prior to the 2023 season, was supposed to be the best talent they'd had since Taveras.

For all of the chasing the Cardinals have been doing, it turns out that the next star may have been sitting under their nose for years now, and he's finally getting a full opportunity to showcase that talent this year.

Like many of their prospects, the Cardinals got a little trigger-happy with the development of Ivan Herrera, aggressively promoting him through the minor leagues as his bat continued to mash and Yadier Molina was in the twilight of his career. As a 22-year-old, Herrera made his MLB debut, playing in 11 games (22 plate appearances) but was overmatched both offensively and defensively, causing the Cardinals to pivot and sign Willson Contreras the following offseason.

Since that cup of coffee (if you can even call 22 plate appearances that), Herrera has done nothing but mash anytime he's been at the plate for the Cardinals. Since the beginning of the 2023 season, Herrera has posted a slash line of .311/.388/.475, walking 10% of the time and striking out in just 20.9% of his plate appearances. His 143 wRC+ ranks 12th in all of baseball, ahead of names like Bryce Harper, Bobby Witt Jr., Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Gunnar Henderson.

Now, we have to acknowledge that it's just 340 plate appearances, a small sample size when you're talking about three seasons, but enough of a sample size to at least tell me he's got some talent. Beneath the hood during that stretch, Herrera's walk rate ranks among the top 25% of hitters in baseball, and he has one of the lowest strikeout rates among the top 20 hitters in wRC+ since 2023. Digging even deeper, Herrera ranks 38th out of 445 batters with at least 300 plate appearances in HardHit%, and he is fourth among all of those hitters in line drive%.

I fully recognize that this is a bold claim to pronounce Herrera as that bat the Cardinals have been searching for, and the next 300 plate appearances of his career could bring this opinion back down to earth. But here's why I feel confident making it: Everything Ivan Herrera has done at the Major League level in his career indicates he is an elite bat.

Ivan Herrera is the star bat the Cardinals have been looking to develop for over a decade

Herrera's season was limited by a monthlong stint on the injured list already, but again, when he's been on the field, he has done nothing but rake, slashing .385/.457/.872 with a 255 wRC+ in his 46 plate appearances. So far this year, Herrera leads all of baseball with a Hard-hit% of 51.6%, and his home run to fly ball rate is an insane 62.5%.

No one has to explain to me that his performance so far is unsustainable. He's been better than Aaron Judge at the plate in this small sample size, and we all know how historic a year he is having. Yes, Herrera will come back down to earth offensively, but considering he was a 121 wRC+ guy in 2023 and a 127 wRC+ hitter in 2024, I think it's also fair to wonder what heights he can reach offensively.

There are a lot of numbers working in Herrera's favor that indicate this performance is real. His xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Barrel%, average exit velocity, Hard-Hit%, LA Sweet-Spot%, bat speed, Whiff%, and BB% are all among the best in baseball in his brief sample.

This isn't new for Herrera either. Over the last two years, his expected numbers have always been off the charts, his bat speed has graded out extremely well, and his LA Sweet-Spot% has been optimal as well. He's always been a guy who takes his walks with the best of them, and he does not whiff often. Combine all of that, and you have a very exciting hitter on your hands.

For all of the talk about Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker this offseason, it is Herrera who has emerged as their impact bat. The Cardinals are right to keep hoping Gorman and Walker can break out as well, but not enough is being made of Herrera's ceiling, in my opinion.

Most of the conversation around Herrera has focused on his need to improve his arm strength behind the plate, and while people know he can hit, I feel like the heights he continues to reach offensively have been downplayed. If this were Walker or Gorman performing like Herrera has so far, I think it would be the biggest story in St. Louis and catch the eyes of national media. Instead, Herrera seems to often times get lumped into the secondary part of the Cardinals' core, when he should actually be front and center as of today,

Herrera, in the very near future, should be hitting in the heart of the Cardinals' order, whether that is second, cleanup, or possibly in the five hole. He has been far too impactful to run out as the sixth hitter every day, and while Nolan Arenado is producing better than he was last year, his current production does not warrant a spot in the lineup that is higher than Herrera's. Nootbaar, Winn, Donovan, and Contreras are all thriving in their roles, so I think the easiest swap is to exchange Arenado and Herrera in the batting order.

Until proven otherwise, Herrera deserves to be the central focus of the Cardinals' young core. Everything he has shown us to this point in his big league career suggests he is one of the elite hitters in baseball, and even with natural regression set to happen (because now, I am not trying to say he is going to outproduce Aaron Judge this year), he'll still be in the caliber of bats that the Cardinals just have not had outside of career years from Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.

If Herrera can stick at catcher long term, with incremental improvements to his arm behind the plate, while maintaining his production or growing as a hitter, he is truly one of the best players in all of baseball. Even if he ends up needing to switch positions to first base or become a full-time DH, if the bat produces like it is right now, that's an elite player in today's game.

It's a shame we never got to see how Oscar Taveras' career unfolded. It was for the best that Jason Heyward decided to skip town for the Chicago Cubs. The Dylan Carlson experience was a massive failure, but there is still time for Nolan Gorman, and especially Jordan Walker, to change the narrative on their trajectories as players.

But as we stand today, Herrera has been exceptional in his young big league career, and everyone should be taking notice.