Ivan Herrera’s bat is cooling off, and the solution may be obvious for Cardinals

I'm not worried about Ivan Herrera; I doubt the Cardinals are, and I really don't think you need to be either. However, it is worth noting that he's been slumping as of late (by his standards), and the Cardinals could really use his bat firing on all cylinders again.

Since the final game of the Minnesota Twins series back on June 14th, Herrera is slashing .200/.366/.262 with just two extra-base hits over his last 82 plate appearances. Since Herrera is one of the best in baseball at finding ways on base, his slump is far less detrimental than what we see from many other players, as he's only 5% below league average over this stretch. That's heavily carried by his .366 OBP, but that is still a valuable trait for an offense with as many at-bats as Herrera gets.

Still, when Herrera is himself, he's producing 30%-40% above league average and, in doing so, helps take the Cardinals lineup to another level.

With five games against the Milwaukee Brewers this week and three against the Atlanta Braves prior to the All-Star Break, it would be really helpful for Herrera to get his bat going and help by not just getting on base, but driving in runs at a high level again.

As I dove into the numbers and tried to look at why things have slowed down for Herrera lately, a number of underlying metrics pointed to Herrera's decline offensively. Those metrics, and one drastic decline in particular, seem to be screaming what I think many could have guessed:

Ivan Herrera may just need some rest after being asked to do so much this season.

Ivan Herrera may simply need a break to get right for Cardinals

Herrera has played in every single game for the Cardinals this season. Considering Herrera has struggled with injuries the last few years and has never played in more than 107 big league games or 99 minor league games, his 87-for-87 streak so far is extremely impressive and very encouraging.

But it is fair to wonder that, for a guy who has never been on the field for more than 66% of a given season, playing 100% of the games may be wearing on his body, especially when 38% of those games come from behind the plate.

One number that may seem to point to the fatigue setting in is the massive drop Herrera has had in his FastSwing%, which measures how often Herrera has swung the bat at 75 MPH+, which matters because hitters tend to do far more damage at the plate when they eclipse that number. If you look at Herrera's FastSwing% month over month, you'll notice the drop-off as of late.

During this stretch since June 16 specifically, his FastSwing% is now down to 35.5%. For context, Herrera's 45.3% FastSwing% ranked 41st among 156 hitters, but that 35.5% number is now down to 62nd.

Along with the FastSwing% regression, Herrera has seen a 5.2% drop in both his HardHit% and Barrel% over this stretch, almost a 3% drop in his Blast%, and has seen his infield fly ball rate almost double from 13.3% to 26.1%.

Luckily, the All-Star Break is almost upon us, so that can act as a reset for Herrera, but I do think sprinkling in some off days in the second half would be wise for all parties. I know Herrera prides himself on playing every day, and while that's an incredible trait, it's not worth it if he's seeing diminishing returns because of it.

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