Ivan Herrera Isn’t exactly struggling, he’s becoming something scarier for Cardinals

On the surface, Ivan Herrera is off to a bit of a lackluster start for the St. Louis Cardinals. After breaking out fully last year in an injury riddled season to the tune of 19 homeruns and a 137 wRC+, expectations were high that this 26 year old catcher (DH? Left fielder??? More on that in a minute!) would be the premiere bat on this team. Oli Marmol is certainly acting like it by slotting Ivan Herrera in the two hole – which many advanced statisticians have claimed in the most important spot in the lineup.

Twenty games into the season, Jordan Walker is a hitting supernova and Ivan Herrera looks a little pedestrian. Herrera, at the time of this writing, is currently running a 107 wRC+, good for seven percent above league average. By the way, it’s harder than ever to hit in the MLB as a league average line is .238/.315/.383. Those aren’t exactly video game numbers. Hitting a baseball is the hardest thing in professional sports. We should all keep that in mind as we watch each game.

Herrera’s track record, combined with a freight train of catching prospects heading towards the majors (Go ahead and look up Rainiel Rodriguez’s start to the season at 19 years old. I’ll give you a second to recover.) led us to consider if Herrera might be an answer to the woeful outfield problems for the Cardinals. We had a great time discussing it and hope you find it enjoyable - Apple and Spotify!

Herrera’s new offensive traits suggest that he’s evolving as a hitter

Herrera has run into some very bad luck at the plate, being hampered by a .211 BABIP twenty games in. That doesn’t concern me. That’s bound to rise and when it does we’ve got a chance to see a transformed Herrera in a way we never have before. So far this season, Ivan Herrera has doubled his career walk rate and shaved his strikeouts down by 33% over his career averages.

Let’s put that in perspective with his peers. He’s got a K rate in the 95th percentile and a walk rate in the 97th percentile. I feel like a kid who’s finally reached the top of a water slide after the long slog through line (Did I pick up 93 types of bacteria from the water park? Probably!). Why am I so excited? He’s among the best hitters in baseball and not getting himself out and allowing the pitcher to put him on base. I don’t know anything about building homes, but I know a foundation is critical. There are few hitters in the league with better foundations than Ivan Herrera.

If you want a couple of Cardinals comps for what Herrera is showcasing so far this year, think Matt Carpenter with fewer strikeouts (and more natural power!) or, dare I say it, pulling an Albert Pujols where you walk more than you strikeout. (No, Ivan Herrera is not going to turn into Pujols. It was an example, not a prophecy. The 19 year old catcher currently destroying single A has more Pujols vibes if you want to get crazy.) When you pair walks machine JJ Wetherholt in the leadoff spot with this new version of Ivan Herrera in the two hole, you’ve got the recipe for some very long innings for opposing pitchers. You love to see it.

The question is whether these new offensive traits will sap Herrera of power

We probably all remember that rainy game in April last year where Herrera went deep three times. For a lot of Cardinals fans, that was their official introduction to Herrera’s talents. Despite the fact that Jordan Walker is doing an Aaron Judge impression right now (Yes, I said it. Will it last? I’m not sure. But, I think we’re all hoping so!), this Cardinals offense needs power. We will, of course, see what comes of this season with Herrera and whether he can keep beefing up the lineup, but there are encouraging signs.

His bat speed is roughly equal to where it was last year. This is a critical metric because as any fifth grader can tell you, the faster two objects collide the higher the velocity from that collision. Herrera still swings the lumber in the 75th percentile of all major leaguers. What’s missing so far? Barrels. He’s barreling balls at a league average rate, which is far below what he did last year in his breakout season. It stands to reason that the barrel rate will normalize for Herrera.

What happens if you combine Herrera’s evolution in strikeouts and walks with his career norms for barrels? Simply put, you’ve got a guy who should be hitting in the second spot in almost any lineup in the league.

I’ll take it one step further though. The Cardinals “rebuild” may be over for the top of the lineup. Wetherholt-Herrera-Burleson-Walker (in his current superhuman form) is looking like the offensive core of a team that can compete. Something tells me Ivan Herrera is going to be a huge part of that. 

Thanks for reading!

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