Is Lars Nootbaar playing himself back into the Cardinals' long-term plans?

Much like Lars Nootbaar's entire tenure with the St. Louis Cardinals, 2025 has raised a lot of question marks about the ceiling he has as a player, and yet, there've been enough high points to give the Cardinals pause about cutting bait on their Statcast darling. So, is Nootbaar playing himself back into the Cardinals' plans moving forward?

Short answer: Maybe. Long answer: It's complicated.

The Cardinals made it clear that 2025 was about learning what they have in their young players. Have they done the best job at setting themselves up for success in learning those answers? Not really, but they've done enough to present runway to a variety of players in their organization, and for better or for worse, they are learning about each of them.

While most of us have been trying to identify who the Cardinals should hold onto and who they should trade when Chaim Bloom takes over this offseason, the conversation for this new front office regime is far more nuanced than just "Who do they prefer to keep on the roster moving forward?". The task at hand for them this winter will be weighing their internal evaluations of their players against what the league is offering them, which may lead them to parting ways with players due to the value they can get in return, while holding onto a "less valuable" player who can give them similar production as to what they traded away.

In the case of Lars Nootbaar, he's a guy who could easily fall into either camp this offseason, which makes how he finishes the year one of the most fascinating storylines facing this club in the final days of the John Mozeliak era.

Lars Nootbaar may be playing himself into the Cardinals core or into a trade chip this offseason

It's been a tale of stretches for Nootbaar throughout his career, and that's true again in 2025.

From Opening Day through May 16th, Nootbaar slashed .260/.374/.434 in 206 plate appearances, good for a 129 wRC+ with seven home runs, nine doubles, and 31 walks to just 32 strikeouts as the Cardinals' leadoff hitter.

From May 17th through June 18th, Nootbaar slashed .156/.248/.219 with a 37 wRC+, one home run, three doubles, and 36 strikeouts to just nine walks in 109 plate appearances during a brutal stretch for the 27-year-old.

In the 18 games following that stretch before Nootbaar hit the injured list, he got his feel back at the plate, posting a .242/.338/.484 slash line, good for a 131 wRC+ in 71 plate appearances with four home runs, three doubles, and just 15 strikeouts to his eight walks.

And now, after returning from the injured list on August 2nd, Nootbaar has been steady at the plate once again, slashing .313/.328/.438, resulting in a 113 wRC+ with one home run, five doubles, and 15 strikeouts with just two walks in 67 plate appearances.

Even just looking at the slash lines, extra-base hit outputs, and K/BB ratio, you'll see different versions of Nootbaar coming out during various stretches of the season. And if his last nine games are any indication, where he's posted a 162 wRC+, he may be sitting on a heater here that can really boost his overall numbers on the year.

Here's the funny thing about Nootbaar right now. If he finishes the year strong, he may be someone the Cardinals want to keep, or he may play himself into being a coveted asset for rival clubs this offseason. If Nootbaar plays poorly down the stretch, the Cardinals may want to hold onto him and not cut bait at his lowest point, but teams that see the potential in Nootbaar may come calling with a nice offer. If he's in between, well, the Cardinals could be faced with the same dilemma.

Nate Schwartz of Pitcher's List had an insightful thread of Nootbaar's recent surge at the plate, showing how a return to some of his patient traits, while not hunting walks in three-ball counts either. He's making better swing decisions and more contact again, but the dip in his quality of contact may be a sign that he's still not healthy.

Like Nolan Gorman's run of success this summer, we are going to have to sit back and watch how the remainder of the season unfolds for Nootbaar to know where he stands with the organization. And even then, this offseason presents so much uncertainty regarding his future with the club because of the general uncertainty around their young bats.

I could easily see Bloom capitalizing on Nootbaar's trade value this offseason, and I could also see Bloom moving on from other players, even ones like Brendan Donovan or Alec Burleson, whom most fans believe are betting players, and holding onto Nootbaar to see what he does in 2026.