If the Cardinals trade Nolan Arenado, this homecoming team doesn't make sense

Even before Nolan Arenado was a St. Louis Cardinal, the Los Angeles Dodgers wanted him. They once again tried to manifest a trade at the 2023 trade deadline. But now that Arenado is an actual possibility for them, it feels like an unlikely fit.

The Cardinals are expected to shop Arenado to teams over the coming days and weeks and present potential destinations to their third baseman. This is a prime opportunity for the Dodgers to throw their names in the mix, but the timing now seems to have passed for the reigning World Series champions to acquire Arenado.

Arenado to the Dodgers has felt like the biggest "Will they or won't they?" conversation worthy of your favorite sitcom. Arenado, who was born in Newport Beach, California, and spends his offseasons out there, has been the apple of the Dodgers' eye for some time, and it is safe to say they've been one of the few teams he has wanted to play for.

Back when Arenado wanted to leave Colorado, the two teams at the top of his wish list were the Dodgers and the Cardinals. The Rockies were unwilling to ship Arenado to Los Angeles, and thus Arenado ended up with St. Louis.

So why wouldn't the Dodgers make a play now? Well, there are actually multiple reasons this fit feels unlikely.

The Dodgers don't need Nolan Arenado, and the risk-reward probably isn't worth it to them

Simply put, the Los Angeles Dodgers do not need Nolan Arenado. In fact, their current plan at third base is working out extremely well for them.

Despite missing a significant chunk of the 2024 season, Dodgers' third baseman Max Muncy posted a .232/.358/.494 slash line with 15 home runs and 47 RBI in just 73 games, good for a 135 wRC+ and 2.4 fWAR. For comparison, Arenado posted a 3.1 fWAR and 102 wRC+ in 152 games on his .272/.325/.394 slash line.

Muncy, 34, is under contract for just $14.5 million in 2025 with a $10 million club option in 2026. Arenado, 33, is due $32 million in 2025, $27 million in 2026, and $15 million in 2027, although the Rockies are paying $5 million of that salary in both 2025 and 2026.

The Dodgers have never been afraid to get creative with their roster building, so no one would put it past them to acquire Arenado and figure out the rest later. Muncy has played second base before, but it is unlikely they would put him there full-time again. Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani are already holding down first base and the designated hitter role, so Muncy couldn't slide there either.

Maybe the Dodgers would see an opportunity here to buy low on Arenado and sell on Muncy? It won't cost much in terms of prospects to get Arenado off the Cardinals' hands, and there's a good chance St. Louis will kick in some money to make the deal happen. But I'm guessing you already see how complicated this situation is getting.

Arenado and the Dodgers feel like a match made in heaven that the timing just never worked out for. Arenado had a chance to opt out of his contract with the Cardinals two offseasons ago and entertain an offer from the Dodgers, but he decided to remain in St. Louis under the belief that they would be contending in 2023 and beyond.

Well, things went downhill for both the Cardinals and Arenado since then. It feels like a breakup is coming, but unfortunately for Arenado, I don't think he'll be "rebounding" with the reigning champions in Southern California.