If the Cardinals are going to trade just one starter, it shouldn't be Steven Matz

A lot of St. Louis Cardinals fans are probably ready to be done with the Steven Matz experience. I get it. But if the Cardinals move a rotation arm to clear salary off of their books, it's the veteran on a lower number who should be leaving town.

Erick Fedde has legitimate value on the trade market. Had he been a free agent this offseason, he would probably be looking at a multi-year deal with an AAV somewhere between $17m-$22m based on the kind of money being handed out this offseason. The opportunity to acquire a starter as good as Fedde who is only making $7.5 million in 2025 is something contenders are going to want to pull off if they can.

While the Cardinals are still motivated to move Arenado off of their books to bring their payroll down significantly, it has been reported that the club will likely pivot to dealing one of Matz or Fedde if they are unable to move Arenado (and I certainly would not rule out them trading either even if they do move Arenado). While Matz is set to make $5 million more than Fedde next year, it makes way more sense in my opinion to deal the cheaper Fedde and get a real return for this reset.

I'll give this disclaimer to make sure people know where I stand - the Cardinals believing they need to move Fedde to save money rather than because he's a legit asset that can help their retool is ludicrous. The moment they self-proclaimed this reset, Fedde should have been the number one name on their list to part ways with. Fedde is a free agent after the 2025 season, and I highly doubt the Cardinals are going to bring him back on a multi-year deal.

Fedde's value is probably at an all-time high right now. Sure, he could be good again in the regular season and up his value some, but by how much realistically? Starting pitching is at a premium right now, so why not cash in?

In the case of Matz, while clubs are interested in acquiring him, the Cardinals can't expect to get real value in return. While I am definitely not against them moving Matz if the right deal is there, if they are choosing to move just one, it has to be Fedde.

Steven Matz can fill a unique role for the Cardinals in 2025 and potentially raise his trade value in the process

Matz, since signing his four-year, $44 million deal with St. Louis, has made 34 starts and 18 relief appearances, posting a 4.47 ERA, 4.01 FIP, and just 2.8 fWAR over his three seasons of play. Matz has often been injured, and when he has been healthy, has not been productive nearly enough for St. Louis. So why would I say they should hold onto him?

As I said above, Fedde will warrant a promising return from a trade partner this offseason. Matz will not. And if the Cardinals want to give their young starting pitchers opportunities in the rotation next year, moving on from Fedde while holding onto Matz is the perfect insurance play. Let me explain.

Fedde, if he's in St. Louis, must be in their rotation. He's their second-best starter behind Sonny Gray. He posted a 3.30 ERA and 3.86 FIP in 31 starts last year. Unless he's injured, he's going every fifth day for St. Louis.

The Cardinals have also penciled in Gray, Andre Pallante, and Miles Mikolas into their rotation next year. There's also the long-standing note that the club would love to bring back Kyle Gibson if they end up dealing a starter. I don't see any of those names being moved out of the rotation either, barring injury.

So let's say the Cardinals enter camp with Gray, Fedde, Pallante, Gibson, and Mikolas - unless one of them hits the injured list, guys like Michael McGreevy, Quinn Mathews, Tink Hence, Gordon Graceffo, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson, and Sem Robberse do not have real opportunities to make the rotation out of camp.

Now, if you swap Fedde's name with Matz, you can have a real conversation. If none of those starters have "earned" a rotation spot in Spring Training, then the Cardinals can easily slot Matz into the rotation until one is ready. Let's say McGreevy shows them enough to be in the rotation during camp, then the club can easily move Matz to the bullpen, allow McGreevy to start, and always have Matz as an option in case injuries happen or their young guys regress.

Having an arm like Matz around makes a lot of sense for the Cardinals' stated goals in 2025. If the young guys need more time, Matz can make the starts. If the young guys are ready, then it's no issue to move him to the bullpen. In the case of someone like Mikolas, they are not going to remove him from the rotation unless he's really bad and the Cardinals are sure they have multiple options ready to fill in.

So as the Cardinals entertain the idea of trading a starting pitcher, prioritize moving Fedde. It makes the most sense for the return you can get and for creating the opportunities you say you want for young arms. If not, well, I guess it wouldn't be the first time