How the return in a Nolan Arenado trade will look for the St. Louis Cardinals

Nolan Areando trade rumors have been swirling for years now. The St. Louis Cardinals' third baseman is highly expected to be dealt this offseason and his value is in question to many. The once generational superstar has been on a rapid decline since his 2022 third-place MVP finish. After he declined the chance to be sent to the Houston Astros last off-season, he is now more willing to open up his preferred destinations to move on to the last chapter of his career. The Cardinals now have to navigate the market to figure out what exactly they can get for their third baseman. The answer just might be from a trade they have already made.

The potential return for a Nolan Arenado trade is already clear for the Cardinals

Willson Contreras being sent to the Boston Red Sox just showed what the Cardinals can expect when dealing Arenado. Contreras did not bring back higher-end talent from the Red Sox organization. Instead, the Cardinals were able to raise the floor from within their depth and patch holes in the roster. Hunter Dobbins can be a back-end starter or bullpen piece on an affordable contract, Yhoiker Fajardo provides some potential value given his prospect status, and Blake Aita is unproven depth to the organization. Chaim Bloom is addressing pitching needs after another tough season for the Major League staff and injuries plaguing the minor league prospects. Arenado can provide even more of this to where raising the floor might be the better option than trying to push the ceiling up.

The only way this works is if the Cardinals eat money on the contract. Arenado is owed $31 million over the next two seasons and will not be an attractive contract to add to the payroll. Teams interested in acquiring Arenado will be asking to reduce his salary before accepting any deal. Contreras has much more reliable value going forward, and he still had to have money sent with him to Boston. Sending $8 million enabled Bloom to land a top 30 Red Sox prospect which I do not believe the Cardinals can do unless they eat $15-20 million that is still owed. I would be expecting a very similar return for Arenado, which is hinging on how much money Bloom and the Dewitts decide to attach in the trade.