How speed makes the bottom of the Cardinals lineup a laborsome task for opponents

You know what they say — speed kills. And when it comes to the bottom of the St. Louis Cardinals lineup, they are hoping that stacking athleticism will put a thorn in the side of opposing teams.

The Cardinals lineup was far from dynamic last year. We've talked at length about their struggle to push runs across the plate with mediocre power and on-base numbers, and their historically bad outcomes with runners in scoring position were icing on the cake. On top of that, they were a bottom-third team in baseball in stolen bases and middle of the pack at best in taking the extra base when balls were put in play.

The club is clearing on a mission to change all of that in 2025, and while we need to monitor the results for some time before we can draw conclusions, we can already see how they have cranked up their aggressiveness, especially on the base paths.

While it's nice to see guys like Jordan Walker and Lars Nootbaar push the envelope more while running the bases, things have a chance to get really interesting at the bottom of their lineup because of how manager Oliver Marmol has stacked speed in the eight and nine spots this year.

Victor Scott II's and Masyn Winn's speed and bat-to-ball skills can put a ton of pressure on opposing pitching staffs as the lineup turns back over.

When Oliver Marmol debuted his lineup this past week, the presence of Victor Scott II and Masyn Winn at the bottom of the order piqued the interest of many. Just the sheer thought of those two batting back-to-back in the order sounded fun, but watching it on the field in even just two games so far has shown how much of a headache the duo could become for opposing pitchers.

We know all about the speed that the duo has already. Scott stole almost 100 bags in 2023 in the minor leagues and already has three stolen bases in three games for St. Louis thus far. It will be a huge surprise if Scott is not among the league leaders in stolen bases this year as long as he is able to get on base even just a little bit. Winn isn't as fast as Scott is, but he's a dynamic runner himself, and he's made it clear that he wants to be a major stolen base threat in 2025.

The presence of one another at the bottom of the order actually helps them both in more ways than you might expect. Whenever Scott is able to get on base, he is immediately a major threat to whoever is on the mound. If the pitcher wants to avoid Scott turning a walk or a single into a double or a double or stolen base into a triple, he's going to have to keep a close eye on him. I would expect that means an increase in fastballs for Winn when Scott is on base, which is the exact pitch Winn wants to see when he's at the plate. Both his actual and expected numbers in 2024 were much better against fastballs, and that also means fewer breaking balls thrown out of the zone that Winn is prone to swinging at.

If pitchers want to attack Winn with those breaking balls low and away while Scott is on base, more power to them; it just means he's even more likely to end up on second or third base.

Winn does have great bat-to-ball skills, meaning that if he's able to put the ball in play, there's potential for Scott to score from first on a ball in the gap or move from first to third. There are a lot of ways things can go wrong for opposing pitchers if Scott is on base, and that's a very good thing from the eighth hitter in the lineup.

If one or more of them reaches base, Lars Nootbaar, Willson Contreras, and Brendan Donovan are right behind them to capitalize on that situation. Most lineups tend to give pitchers a bit of a "break" when they reach the eight and nine spots, but the bottom of the Cardinals' order can easily fluster opposing pitchers with run producers lurking behind them.

I know some of you are thinking this, and yes, it's obvious, but if Scott and Winn consistently don't get on base, then the point is pretty moot. It's hard to steal second when you can't even get on first. Scott struggled big time at the major league level in his first stint, and while he was a bit better down the stretch, it was still well below league average. Winn had an encouraging rookie campaign, but the numbers fell off as the year went on.

What is encouraging so far are the kinds of at-bats Scott and Winn are taking so far. It's two games. I repeat. It's two games. But it has been fun to see Scott post elite Chase% and Whiff% numbers while barreling the ball at a 33.3% clip. I'll say it again, it's just two games, but as I said, it's nice to see those kinds of at-bats so far. For a guy with as much speed as Scott has, if he can see a lot of pitches and not beat himself swinging outside the zone, then he's going to find himself on base a lot.

And yes, both of them can do damage at the plate as well. Winn has floundered a bit so far, but Scott has already crushed a home run in the first series. With two men on during the second inning on Sunday, Scott mashed a three-run homer over the right field bullpen, jump-starting the Cardinals offense on their way to a 9-2 victory over the Twins.

We'll see if the momentum can continue as the weeks go on, but so far, I'm really liking what I see from the Cardinals stacking speed at the bottom of the order.